West – Developed & Deep in Debt

The entire Developed world is deeply in debt. Will this debt ever get paid?

Britain - A World Leader In Indebtedness! (Source McKinsey Reports). Alt image URL - http://goo.gl/k6soE

debt problems of the western world go much beyond the current crisis. For one thing, as the authors point out, public debt levels are likely to rise as populations age and governments try to deliver on the promises (pensions, health care and so on).

As public debt levels rise beyond the “danger threshold”, they will tend to pull growth down. This, in turn, could make household and corporate debt servicing far more difficult and countries that are already saddled with dangerously high levels could find themselves in the middle of a crisis. Thus, even if there is a solution to the current crisis in Europe, the “debt” problems of the western world are far from over.

Tailpiece

What worries us about the spirit of good cheer that has suddenly returned to the markets is that it might lead to temporary appreciation in the euro. This, alas, could bring back the spectre of a crisis in the region and revive fears of a break-up in the currency union. One of the pre-conditions for the survival of the union is an orderly deprecation of the currency towards some sort of “fair value” that we think could lie anywhere between 1.15 and 1.20. This would make the beleaguered countries of the periphery more competitive and reduce their incentives to exit from the union. If the currency starts to appreciate again, things go back to square one and the sustainability of the union is back under a cloud of uncertainty. Financial markets tend to be prescient about these things and it is possible that while other currencies and assets rally against the dollar, the euro could at least stay put. (via Abheek Barua & Shivom Chakravarti: Deconstructing debt).

DEBT THREATS (Debt levels as a % of GDP)
Debt	Household	Non-financial	Government	Total
US	95	76	97	268
Japan	82	161	213	456
UK	106	126	89	321
Italy	53	128	129	310
Denmark	152	119	65	336
Netherlands	130	121	76	327
Greece	65	65	143	273
Portugal	106	153	107	366
Source: Bank for International settlements & Eurostat  Table source & courtesy – business-standard.com

Clear message

Estimates vary. Assumptions change. Regardless, of difference in estimates, or the variation in assumptions, debt levels of the developed world are awesome.

The table on top is based on McKinsey Consulting’s estimates released in 2009.

Some figures were revised after McKinsey estimates were made. Like from Ireland. Or after the QE and QEII, US govt debt has ballooned from roughly US$9 trillion to 15 trillion.

The deficit has ballooned to nearly $48,000 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. This year alone, the U.S. will spend $1.3 trillion more than it takes in.

The debt has expanded at an alarming pace, from $7.5 trillion in 2004 and $5.6 trillion in 2000. At the current rate, Debtclock.org reckons that the debt will top $23 trillion in 2015, though the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office puts the estimate at $17.6 trillion. (via U.S. Debt Tops $15 Trillion Mark Today – ABC News).

Looking at these two sets figures, two questions come to my mind.

One: How does the West+Developed world plan to repay these debts?

Only two things can happen from here. Either governments are going to default outright. Or they are going inflate away their debts, using compliant central banks to keep interest rates significantly below rising prices for many years. Either way, everyone is going to lose a lot of money. Whether it is through a default or inflation doesn’t make much difference in the medium term. (via France and the death of the sovereign debt market – Matthew Lynn’s London Eye – MarketWatch).

Two: If the whole of the Developed world is so deep in debt, it is obvious that someone else has lent them this money?

Obviously, the Developed World has not lent itself that money. Someone is lending the Developed World this money or underwriting this Debt – based on which this debt is being issued.

Since all the major economies of the world (except China) is deeply in debt, the  Russia and China are in a position to be creditors to some extent – but do not account for major extent.

This leaves us with the poor countries of the world.

Are the rich of this world, bleeding the poor?

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Related articles

• Debt Crisis in The Third World (quicktake.wordpress.com)
• Notes On Deleveraging (krugman.blogs.nytimes.com)
• The U.S. Debt Limit (quicktake.wordpress.com)
• Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: Should Have Listened To The DFHs Edition (delong.typepad.com)

Big Brother State Makes Food Choices For Us

Why is the State getting involved with what I eat and drink?

English-speaking middle class vermin

A middle-class, English-speaking Indian decides that the neighbouring country liquor vendor must be shut down. Uses CNN-IBN Citizen Journalist promo to get media coverage.

Feeling very sanctimonious, Pradeep Bhatia pushes a reluctant local police station to shut down a small-time entrepreneur. This tea-stall and selling country liquor, was definitely not the type that is patronized by the rich or even the middle-class. Note, in the entire CNN-IBN report, there is no mention of law & order problem from this tea-and-liquor outlet owner or its patrons.

I wonder if he would have done this against a more powerful bar?

Anyways, who is anyone to decide what I will eat and drink? Should the State regulate my choices of food and drink? Can Pradeep Bhatia and the Police Inspector decide what I will eat and drink?

Not in भारत-तंत्र Bharat-tantra, at least.

Disclaimer: I have no interest in this tea-stall, liquor, country or otherwise. While I am a teetotaler, I see no reason I should impose my preferences on anyone else.

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Without Comment – The Great Indian Genetic Robbery

The ways, means, and behind Western technology and science.

India is rice country. Rice is a critical component of a complex eco-system, tied to legends, used as symbol, essential witness at religious ceremonies and rituals. Such an immense preoccupation with rice would, which is to be expected, call forth its own brand of competence to grow it; so we find a bewildering number of techniques, some of which even today place Indian rice farmers, some Adivasis, in a class far ahead of international science.

In the Jagannath Temple at Puri in Orissa, I was told, freshly harvested rice is presented to the deity everyday, and various varieties of rice, placed in pots, one on top of the other, with a single flame beneath the lowermost, still cook simultaneously. In Chhattisgarh region there is a rice variety called Bora, which can be ground directly into flour and made into rotis. Other varieties have fascinating names, like the kali-mooch of Gwalior, the moti-chur and the khowa; the latter, as its name signifies, tastes like dried milk. The dhokra-dhokri, with its length of grain over 14 mm is the longest rice in the world and the variety Bhimsen has the largest width; there is variety called udan pakheru – because of its long, featherlike structure.

There may have been as many as 1,20,000 varieties of rice in the country, adapted to different environments, and selected and evolved by farmers for specific human needs. These varieties are a product of nature’s desire for diversity, eagerly husbanded by indigenous and non-formal science.

The Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI), at Cuttack, had been working on the different problems associated with rice culture ever since it had been set up in the late 1950s. Dr R.H. Richharia took over as its director in 1959, and a number of competent scientists had come up with interesting work that sooner or later would converge into a strategy to produce more rice.

Two major developments totally ruined the prospect of a promised land overflowing with rice and honey. The first was economic: the oil price hike of 1973 effectively limited a fertiliser-based agricultural strategy. It would make Green Revolution inputs so expensive that they would have to be subsidised by Governments if farmers were not to give up using them forever. The second major problem, also irreversible, arrived in the form of disease and insects. The growing of varieties with a narrow genetic base (all with the same dwarfing gene, dee-gee-wo-gen), upset insect ecology and invented entire generations of pests.

In India, the situation was equally horrifying. All of Dr Richharia’s predictions had come true. ‘The introduction of high-yielding varieties,’ noted a task force of eminent rice breeders, ‘has brought about a marked change in the status of insect pests like gall midge, brown planthopper, leaf folder, whore maggot, etc. Most of the HYVs released so far are susceptible to major pests with a crop loss of 30 to 100 per cent… Most of the HYVs are the derivatives of TN1 or IR8 and therefore, have the dwarfing gene known as dee-gee-wo-gen. The narrow genetic base has created alarming uniformity, causing vulnerability to diseases and pests. Most of the released varieties are not suitable for typical uplands and lowlands which together constitute about 75 per cent of the total rice area of the country.

The IRRI counter-strategy against the pests involved breeding of varieties, with genes for resistance to such pests, taken from wild relatives of the rice plant and its traditional cultivars. All of a sudden it seemed critical that massive efforts be made to make as complete a collection of the older varieties: many of the traditional Indicas were found to be important donors for resistance. Gene incorporation strategy, in other words, required vast germplasm resources, most of which were to be found in India. The recruitment of Dr M.S. Swaminathan would be instrumental in the task of collection.

In India, again, Dr Richharia stood in the way.

After he had been retired from service at Chandler’s insistence, Richharia had gone to the Orissa High Court, where for three years, alone, he fought a legal battle that ruined his family, disrupted the education of his children, and brought tremendous strains on his wife’s health. The legal battle was successful, for in 1970, the Court ordered his reinstatement as director of the CRRI. He had redeemed his honour.

In the meanwhile, the Madhya Pradesh government had appointed Dr Richharia as an agricultural advisor, and the rice man set about his disrupted rice work once again, with his usual zeal. Within the space of six years, he had built up the infrastructure of a new rice research institute at Raipur. Here, this extraordinarily gifted and imaginative rice scientist maintained over 19,000 varieties of rice in situ on a shoestring budget of Rs. 20,000 per annum, with not even a microscope in his office-cum-laboratory, situated in the neighbourhood of cooperative rice mills. His assistants included two agricultural graduates and six village level workers, the latter drawing a salary of Rs.250 per month. Richharia had created, practically out of nothing, one of the most extraordinary living gene banks in the world, and provided ample proof of what Indian scientists are capable of, if they are given proper encouragement.

An attack of leaf blight that devastated the corn crop of the US in 1970, and which had resulted from the extensive planting of hybrids that shared a single source of cytoplasm, and the continuous attacks on IRRI varieties, impelled IRRI to sponsor a Rice Genetic Conservation Workshop in 1977. Swaminathan attended it as an ‘observer’. The report of that workshop begins with the statement: ‘The founders of IRRI showed great foresight when in 1960-61 they planned the establishment of a rice germplasm bank.’ Nonsense. The certified aims and objects for the institute merely talk of a collection of the world’s literature on rice. The workshop, being held 17 years after the establishment of IRRI, indicated that the germplasm problem was becoming important only now.

After the workshop, IRRI’s covetous gaze fell on Richharia’s 19,000 varieties at the Madhya Pradesh Rice Research Institute (MPRRI). Not only had Richharia now uncovered a fascinating world of traditional rices, some of which produced between 8-9 tonnes per hectare – better than the IRRI varieties – he had also discovered dwarf plants without the susceptible dwarfing gene of the IRRI varieties. His extension work among the farmers would soon begin to pose a direct challenge to IRRI itself.

IRRI staff members journeyed to Raipur and asked for his material. Still moulded in the old scientific tradition, he refused because he had not studied the material himself. He was decidedly against any proposal for ‘exchange’, for this could only mean giving up his uncontaminated varieties for IRRI’s susceptible ones.

So the IRRI did the next best thing: it got the MPRRI shut down!

The ICAR floated a scheme for agricultural development in Madhya Pradesh, particularly for rice. The World Bank contributed Rs.4 crores. The condition laid down was: close down the MPRRI, since it would lead to a ‘duplication of work.’ At a special meeting of the MPRRI Board, Madhya Pradesh’s chief secretary who was not a trustee was present. He had been earlier connected with the Ford Foundation. A resolution was passed closing down the Institute, and the rice germplasm passed over to the Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya (JNKVV), whose vice-chancellor Sukhdev Singh also joined the IRRI board of trustees. Scientists were sent to IRRI for training in germplasm transfer, and Richharia’s team was disbanded.

This time too, they locked Dr. Richharia’s rooms and took away all his research papers. (More @ The Great Gene Robbery  |  Claude Alvares |  13 Jan 2012Vijayvaani.com).

School text books reflect Indian culture poorly: Survey

Language, logic and liberty. How all three are getting affected in India by English language.

British Colonialism survived. In Indian minds! A cartoon after the Jallianwala massacre of Indian civilians at Amritsar by British troops on 13 April 1919. Captioned 'Progress to Liberty - Amritsar style'. (Cartoonist: David Low (1891-1963) Published: The Star, 16 Dec 1919; Source - http://www.cartoons.ac.uk/record/LSE6183).

While correcting the answersheets of a post-graduate dance exam, Kanak Rele, a Mohiniattam exponent, was left aghast when one of the students listed Michael Jackson and Hrithik Roshan as India’s contribution to world dance.

Her Centre conducted a survey of more than 600 textbooks used by students studying in schools affiliated to the Maharashtra state board, CBSE and ICSE board and found that not more than 28% of the information in their curriculum relates to Indian culture.

“Our syllabi reflect our cultural heritage very poorly,” said Kanak Rele.

The survey, ‘Discovering India – A Survey of School Textbooks and Curriculum in Maharashtra,’ was conducted over 13 months by eight researchers and was commissioned by the Union ministry of culture.The survey found that texts such as Ramayana, Mahabharata and tales from Panchatantra, Jataka and Hitopadesha were omitted from textbooks but Aesop’s Fables had been included.

“It is shocking that the south and north-eastern parts of India are almost neglected in the textbooks which are overwhelmingly tilted toward central and north India,” said the survey report, which rated books on different parameters such as tradition and culture, history, heritage, Indian thought and spirituality.

The researchers analysed every lesson in 638 textbooks of three languages Hindi, Marathi and English, maths, science, social studies and Sanskrit and compared references of any of the above parameters to other information.The Secondary School Certificate SSC textbooks fared the worst with only 22% of the information relating to Indian culture, followed by Central Board of Secondary Education had 26% and the Indian Certificate for Secondary Education ICSE 27%. (via Indian culture reflected poorly in school syllabi, finds survey – Hindustan Times).

Sow and reap

Why is this not surprising? Not shocking at all.

After funding and promoting foreign language (English) as the main language for higher education. India signed away its future to those who control English – English media, English Universities, English ideology, English polity.

English everything!

Poor India promotes English language

This shock and surprise displays India’s position on English language – non-negotiable.

Any number of such reports will paper over the root-cause – English language. As the British Empire was sinking under the weight of its own hubris, George Orwell, the apologist-in-chief of the declining Empire wrote:

Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past (from Nineteen Eighty Four (1984); by George Orwell).

And the departing British did exactly that.

The Trojan Horse

They sent their foremost propagandists to malform Indian history – before they left. More than 65 years later, we are still trying to clean and correct colonial garbage – which is called Indian history.

English language is like the Greek ‘gift’ of the wooden horse to Troy in the Trojan War.

The ‘gift’ that was the Trojan doom!

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Indian History – Blind At Birth?

Unchallenged rule by Mughals and the British Raj over India, lasted for about 350 years. Cholas ruled longer than that. Why is Modern Indian history so besotted with Mughals and British Raj.

Research recently revealed that the Rijksmuseum’s monumental bronze statue of Shiva was cast in solid bronze. The thousand year-old temple statue was X-rayed, along with the lorry transporting it, in the most powerful X-ray tunnel for containers of the Rotterdam customs authority. It is the first research of its kind on a museological masterpiece.

At 153 cm x 114.5 cm, the Rijksmuseum’s Shiva is the largest known bronze statue from the Chola Dynasty (9th to 12th century) kept in a museological collection outside of India. Given its weight (300 kg), the statue has always been suspected of not being hollow, as has been common practice in Europe since the Greek Antiquity. As part of an earlier investigation, an X-ray was taken of the statue in a Rijksmuseum gallery in 1999 while visitors were evacuated as a precaution against radiation. Unfortunately, the equipment used at the time (280 KeV) was not powerful enough to determine anything definitively. The Rotterdam X-ray tunnel of the Rotterdam customs authority offered a solution.

Complete surprise

The Rijksmuseum renovation project has provided conservators and curators the opportunity to carry out in-depth research on special pieces from the Rijksmuseum collection, including this masterpiece from the Asian Art Collection. The statue was created ca. 1100 in South India. Each temple had its own set of bronze statues which were carried through the city during major temple festivals. This gives the statues their name: utsavamurti, which is Sanskrit for ‘festival images’. Chola bronzes were considered masterpieces of Indian bronze casting.

Anna Ślączka, curator of South Asian Art, comments, ‘We had expected that the statue itself would prove to be solid, but it was a complete surprise to discover that the aureole and the demon under Shiva’s feet are also solid.’ (via Dancing Shiva X Rayed - rijksmuseum.nl.).

Curious … & Interesting

The Mughals from Babur (First Battle of Panipat – 1526) to Aurangzeb (died on 3 March 1707), ruled for less than 200 years. Even with the largest State treasury of its time.

With a fugitive Humayun, deposed by Sher Shah Suri (from 1540-1555) in between.

Within 50 years of Aurangzeb’s death, after the Battle of Plassey (1757), the British gained power. With the Battle of Buxar (1764), the British gained the dewani of Bengal.

For the British, the dewani of Bengal gave untold riches and the start of a global monopoly over gunpowder. Bengal which was the largest manufactory of gunpowder elements in the world was the keys to an Empire. For the British, making money in India was as easy as shaking a pagoda tree.

For India it was ‘hello famines’. A 100 years of wars with the British followed. The Bengal Famine of 1770 (1769-1773) is much written and analysed.

Lost – even before they began

Within 200 years, the British lost India.

British rule really started somewhere between the defeat of Tipu Sultan (1800) and the annexation of Punjab after the death of Ranjit Singh (1840). By 1947, the British story was over – and they were out of India. To be charitable, take it that British misrule lasted from Battle of Plassey (1757) to Indian Independence (1947).

Cholas

But the Cholas ruled over an equally large empire.

Even though Cholas rule started somewhere in 2nd century BC, their peak was  from 940 AD to 1279 AD – nearly 350 years. And what does Modern Indian history know or how important are the Cholas to modern Indian history?

This statue is just a pinhole peek into the technological advancements in the Chola period.

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India’s cricket debacle – The real story

India’s disastrous tours to England and Australia have left fans, players and the administration wondering. What is the real story? 2ndlook to the rescue …

Mahendra Dhoni has lost hair - and greyed in a matter of a few years. The stress has taken its toll. Has he lost the plot? | Image courtesy - firstpost.com | Click for source image.

The poor Indian cricket fan

The inexplicable collapse of the India’s cricket team on the English and the Australian tours has evoked usual ‘explanations’ and standard ‘solutions’.

Losing 4 test matches in England and the first 3 test matches in Australia for a world champion team needs more than usual ‘explanations’ and standard ‘solutions’.

The answer is staring in the face – but strangely, no one is talking of that. Before coming to the answer let us look at current debate.

Duncan Fletcher is the problem

Many commentators include Duncan Fletcher in the problem area – and credit Gary Kirsten, the previous coach with all the successes. Logically, if Gary Kirsten was so good, South Africa, his new team would not give the standard performance that they did against Sri Lanka.

In fact, Sri Lanka won their first ever test in South Africa – after Gary Kirsten became the South African coach.

Similarly, there is no evidence that Duncan Fletcher has done anything that can explain this non-performance.

The poor Indian cricket fan is bewildered by this turn in performance. | Cartoon by Ajit Ninan. Source and courtesy - ksurendran.wordpress.com | Click for larger image.

Senior players must be axed

Knives are out for two of the three senior players in the team, Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman. Their stupendous performance till the 2011 world cup was the talk of town – and it believed that they would go on for ever.

Critics also forget that the selectors did drop a senior like Harbhajan – who was usually a ‘performer’ against the Australians.

This seniors-must-be-axed theory also does not explain the non-performance by younger players.

Indians hash their trips abroad

Indian cricket team does not have a good record of wins in overseas locations.

This is usually related to the fact that pitches and playing conditions are different – and unless adequate warm-up games are played, players have difficulties in adjusting to the new playing conditions. Weather, food, and social life play are a part in this.

This argument has some merit. Gary Kirsten did take an unusual step of sending Rahul Dravid and (and VVS Laxman), if the I remember correctly, early to South Africa for acclimatization.

Kris Srikanth must work on the principle of two peaks in 18 months | Cartoon by Ajit Ninan; source and courtesy - timescontent.com | Click for larger source image.

Dhoni is not the captain that he was

There is also a small section of thinking that puts Dhoni in the problem basket.

Apart from nit-picking, there is little evidence that Dhoni has handled the team and resources badly. Putting up more than 350 runs only once in the last 7 overseas tests is evidence of a performance problem.

And not a captaincy problem.

Catch-all theories

There is also the general ‘BCCI is the root of all evil’ theory – which is neither here nor there.

Then there are those who do a mix-and-match of the above three parameters. Plus there are others who think that since cricketers are over-paid glamor boys, having made their money, they finally don’t care.

Solutions for this non-performance also flow from the above definitions. These solutions range from getting younger players, planning for more trips abroad, prepare fast pitches in India, change the captain, et al.

Since non-performance is the issue, performance management is what we will need to look at.

BCCI has not seen two years in the future and accounted for 'peaking' of the cricket team. | Cartoon source & courtesy - timescontent.com | Click for source image.

Indian Cricket calendar

The Indian cricket team has played 6 significant tournaments in calendar year 2011 – South Africa, World Cup, IPL, England, West Indies – and now in Australia.

Five of these six tournaments (against South Africa, World Cup, IPL, England and Australia) were with world class teams and players – except against a sapped and depleted West Indies team. In between these tournaments, they have had a break of 1-2 weeks.

A usual factory worker, gets nearly 100 days off in a year in a predictable manner. Compared to that Indian team players have got 60 days of break in a 365 days. Rest of the time, they have been in a multi-week contests.

Achieving peak performance

In tennis, 3 of the four Grand Slam events in tennis are clumped together in 120 days of May-September of each year. As a result,

A number of high-achievement players have failed to achieve the Career Grand Slam. Björn Borg never won the US Open or the Australian Open. John McEnroe never won the Australian Open or the French Open. Ken Rosewall, Guillermo Vilas, Ivan Lendl, Monica Seles, Mats Wilander, and Justine Henin failed to win Wimbledon. Pete Sampras, John Newcombe, Arthur Ashe, Jimmy Connors, Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg, Martina Hingis, and Lindsay Davenport failed to win the French Open. Evonne Goolagong Cawley never won the US Open, and Helen Wills Moody and Althea Gibson never won the Australian Open. (via Grand Slam (tennis) – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia; accessed on 15th January, 2011 @14:30 IST).

After years of lack of Grand Slam winners, in 1982 the International Tennis Federation (ITF) relaxed the definition of Grand Slam winner. From winning all 4 tournaments in a calendar year, to consecutive winner, which may spread over a period of two calendar years.

Even after the easier definition, no male tennis players has made the grade of a grand slam in a non-calendar yea. Rod Laver remains the most recent male grand-slam winner in 1969 – more than 40 years ago.

Looking at this picture of over-played cricketers, Indian fans can take heart … and some hope.

Now let us look at what sports performance management theory says.

Performance management theory

Over the last 50 years, sports has worked on the principle that sportsmen must prepare for a peak in a year.

Keep in mind that you can have many “peaks” during the year and during the season, but most elite athletes aim for one primary event or goal, and plan the rest of the training season around that. Recreational athletes can easily have multiple peaks of a lesser degree. This is common if you race many different “fun runs” during the summer. If you are on a recreational league or team you probably have a built-in season, and your training is planned so you continually improve and peak during play-offs or a final event. (via Race Day Preparation – How to Peak for Races and Events).

Sports trainers refer to this system of training as ‘periodization.’

Periodization is an organized approach to training that involves progressive cycling of various aspects of a training program during a specific period.

Training should be organized and planned in advance of a competition or performance. It should consider the athlete’s potential, his/her performance in tests or competition, and calendar of competition.

The annual plan is important in that it directs and guides athletic training over a year. It is based on the concept of periodization and the principles of training.

Preparatory Phase

This phase consists of the general preparation and specific preparation. Usually the general preparation is the longer of the two phases.

Competitive Phase

This phase may contain a few main competitions each containing a pre-competitive and a main competition. Within the main competition, an uploading phase and a special preparatory phase may be included.

Transition Phase

This phase is used to facilitate psychological rest, relaxation and biological regeneration as well as to maintain an acceptable level of general physical preparation. This phase lasts between 3 – 4 weeks (maybe longer) but should not exceed 5 weeks under normal conditions. (via Sports periodization – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.).

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Google, Twitter – New Battlefields for State Control

When China restricts Google, it is censorship; when US controls Twitter, it is fight against terrorism.

When China restricts Google, it is censorship; when US controls Twitter, it is fight against terrorism. | Cartoonist - Andy Singer, source & courtesy - Politicalcartoons.com on 2/28/2006 12:00:00 AM | Click for larger source image.

Better propaganda

A few years ago, as the Chinese government pushed for oversight on Google, there were loud protests from Western media – and much noise and clamor over freedom, liberty, et al. We have now limited viewership on the US government trying to arm-wrestle Twitter into submission and compliance.

Pray, what is the difference between one-party dictatorship in China and two-party democracy in USA?

Is it better propaganda?

After London riots, there was a call for restrictions on Twitter and Facebook. The State will look for ways to dominate and control all aspects of individual life. | Cartoonist - Mike Keefe, source & courtesy - caglecartoons.com on 8/11/2011 12:00:00 AM | Click for larger source image.

U.S. officials told the New York Times that they’re “looking closely” at Shabab’s use of Twitter and their options for legal and other responses. Separately, Sen. Joe Lieberman (@JoeLieberman), Chair of the Homeland Security Committee, called on Twitter to shut down the Taliban’s accounts.

Other Western governments have also turned against Twitter. British Prime Minister David Cameron (@Number10gov), for example, raised the prospect of banning Twitter during social disturbances, following its use by rioters in the U.K., and Mexican prosecutors have accused Twitter users of terrorism for spreading false rumors that have led to real-life violence.

An Israeli legal advocacy group, Shurat HaDin Israel Law Center, has separately threatened Twitter with legal action for hosting the Shabab and Hezbollah accounts. (via U.S. To Twitter: Stop Sleeping With The Enemy – Forbes).

Hypocrisy has its uses

My favorite song these days – Main karoo to saala character dheela hai. And since the song is so good, Salmaan Khan looks like he is worth a Best actor award.

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China’s Soft Power Ambitions

China’s expected rise as a global soft-power has been beset with unexpected difficulties and slower if not zero growth.

Earlier China could no wrong. Now China gets nothing right. | Cartoonist - Rex May; source and courtesy - toonpool.com | Click for larger image.

Rising power

Although Joseph Nye supposedly coined the term soft-power in the 1980s, it came into popular usage after his 2004 book, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics.

From the time that Joseph Nye coined the term soft-power, China has been positioned, by Western media as the challenger to American (& Western) soft-power.

America has been particularly adept at using soft-power. In modern times, whether its was Jesse Owens (victim becomes spokesman of Promised Land) after 1936 Berlin Olympics, or the use of jazz and hip-hop to showcase American ‘culture.’ American multinationals serve as outposts of American media and culture.

But curiously, the more China tries to become a soft-power, the more incapable it finds itself.

Mr Hu may have been slow to adopt Mr Nye’s term openly, but soon after he took office in 2002 he began trying to make China a more attractive brand. In June 2003 a small group of senior propaganda officials and foreign-policy experts met in Beijing for the first time to discuss the importance of soft power. (via China abroad: Sun Tzu and the art of soft power | The Economist).

Cultural security – they say

Most recently, the Chinese President, Hu Jin Tao, lamented the lack of Chinese soft-power – and cautioned the Chinese nation of the dangers from Western culture.

Chinese leaders have long lamented the fact that Western expressions of popular culture and art seem to overshadow those from China. The top-grossing films in China have been “Avatar” and “Transformers 3,” and the music of Lady Gaga is as popular here as that of any Chinese pop singer. In October, at the sixth plenum of the party’s Central Committee, where Mr. Hu gave his speech, officials discussed the need for bolstering the “cultural security” of China.

At the same time, China has been making a push to increase its cultural influence abroad, or its “soft power.” The government has opened up Confucius Institutes around the world to aid foreigners in learning Chinese. The state is also lavishing money on opening operations of large state-run news organizations, including Xinhua, the state news agency, and China Central Television, in cities around the world. Officials from those organizations say they hope their version of the world events becomes as common as those from Western news organizations.

People involved in the arts here say the policy also means more government financing for Chinese companies to create cultural products, ranging from books to live musical productions. At the same time, officials have been encouraging many cultural industries to become more market driven and rely less on government subsidies.

President Hu Jintao has said China must strengthen its cultural production to defend against the West’s assault on the country’s culture and ideology, according to an essay in a Communist Party policy magazine published this week. The publication of Mr. Hu’s words signaled that a new major policy initiative announced in October would continue well into 2012.

“The overall strength of Chinese culture and its international influence is not commensurate with China’s international status,” Mr. Hu said in his essay, according to another translation.

“The international culture of the West is strong while we are weak,” he added.(via China’s Leader Pushes Back at Lady Gaga and Western Culture – NYTimes.com).

To Western media, India, seemed like an unlikely candidate as Emerging Soft-Power, has been ranked highest among emerging economies.

The index produced by the ICD ranked forty countries by these means, and found that Germany and the Netherlands came joint first, with Norway in third. The UK was fifth, the US was seventh, and India was the leading emerging economy, in tenth place.

The true essence of soft-power. How the West creates a hegemony using sports | Cartoonist - Jonathan Zapiro; source & courtesy - movingimages.wordpress.com | Click for larger source image.

Against the wind

Although China has been ranked the 3rd largest marketfor film exhibition, domestic Chinese films have had lukewarm reception from Chinese viewers – especially compared to Hollywood.

The  Chinese film industry, after support from the Chinese government and even after Hollywood investments, it is the unlikely Nigerian film industry that has both overtaken China and Hollywood.

While Korea, Taipei, China and even Europe struggle with keeping their film industries alive, Bollywood and the Nigerian film industry seem to having it easy. Nollywood, as Nigeria’s film industry has come to be known, is today second only to Bollywood in production volumes. Going by revenues, Nollywood slips to third place.  Is global soft-power following the 2ndlook model of culture competition – and not the model of so-called clash of civilizations.

What gives?

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European gold: Sold? Pledged! Safe.

A socialist Europe is deep in debt – but still has substantial gold reserves with various central banks. At least as per official records.

Currency mismanagement is part of Statist systems | Cartoonist Barry Deutsch; source & courtesy - http://laughingatpolitics.com | Click for larger source image.

Printing presses – all systems go

As Governments across the world, print more and more money, the 20th century idea of Trustworthy State is on its last legs. Increasingly, the (undeserved) trust that the State enjoyed with the masses in the 20th century, is now close to breaking point.

We may very soon see a situation, where people will accept only gold – and no paper currency. The entire structure of 20th century monetary system after WWII, was built on paper. In the last 60 years, people (except a few) have gradually forgotten the link between gold as a store of value.

A memory lapse of a link that is too important to forget.

Currency mismanagement is dead. Long live currency manipulation. | Cartoonist - Michael Ramirez in April 16th 2009; source & courtesy - townhall.com | Click for larger source image.

Few people realize it, but Italy holds the world’s fourth biggest stockpile of gold, at 2,452 tonnes. That’s even more than France, and more than twice as much as China.

Only the U.S., Germany and the International Monetary Fund hold more.

The question here is whether some of the troubled European countries — such as Italy and France — are going to have to start selling off the national gold pile to meet their bills.

Some wonder if they already have.

Italy’s gold has a street value of about $123 billion — easily enough to cover this year’s $80 billion budget shortfall. Portugal’s $19 billion in bullion more than covers its $13 billion deficit. France has $122 billion worth of bullion, enough to make a massive dent in its $150 billion deficit.

Meanwhile, look at the people who actually have a lot of money — namely, the Chinese. I continue to suspect that, sooner or later, China is going to move some of its massive $3 trillion-plus reserves into gold, the only currency that no other country controls. At the moment, the richest Western countries, including the United States, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, hold between 60% and 80% of their entire reserves in gold.

The figure for China: Less than 2%. No, that isn’t a misprint.

When that bullion changes hands, it may be the moment when power shifts from the rulers of yesterday to the rulers of tomorrow. This is what happened a century ago, when plenty of that French, German and British gold ended up in the hands of the United States.

In the very short term, this may keep downward pressure on gold. The people who hold the world’s gold at the moment need cash, and may have to sell.

In the medium to longer term, it ought to be bullish. (via Will the Europeans have to sell their gold? – Portfolio Insights by Brett Arends – MarketWatch).

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Gold Prices – Blip, Dip or Flip

After two weeks of softness in gold prices, weak players with long positions are out. Asian buying support seen. Gold prices stable for four days.

European liquidity crisis behind gold 'dumping' by Euro-banks? 2ndlook thinks its gold from deposed Arab leaders (Tunisia, Egypt & Libya) which has found its way into markets. | Cartoonist Mike Luckovich on Nov 29 2011; source & courtesy - caglecartoons.com | Click for larger source image.

Three sides of the coin

The slide in gold prices has brought out Gold-Bust supporters and the Gold-Boom buyers in full force.

Is this US$300 drop in gold prices in the two weeks of December 2011,

- Just a blip on the bull run in gold prices?

- Or is it a medium term dip in gold prices?

- Or is it a beginning of the end for the gold bubble?

All three sides marshall enough ‘facts’ and ‘data’ to sound convincing.

What is not told

What the mainstream media is not telling you, is being told – only on 2ndlook blogs – How Arab gold from Egypt, Tunisia and Libya that may have been dumped by European banks in the market.

As usual the market has the last laugh.

Gold for delivery in February (GC2G +0.51%) rose $8.60, or 0.5%, to $1,626.00 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange during Asian trading hours.

The rise put the metal on track for a second session of gains, after trading up 1.3% in Tuesday’s North American session.

Gold has been pressured in recent months, amid Europe’s deepening sovereign-debt crisis.

Year-end selling by funds and tight liquidity in European interbank money markets have also contributed to recent price falls.

Anne-Laure Tremblay, precious metals analyst at BNP Paribas, said increases in liquidity by central banks should support gold prices in 2012 and possible rises in inflation expectations.

“Gold should also be boosted by strong physical demand, notably in Asia and Europe,” Tremblay said.

However, she added that “with high uncertainty likely to remain a major feature of the markets, gold could be vulnerable to further episodes of price correction.”

BNP Paribas was forecasting gold to average $1,775 an ounce in 2012 and $2,150 an ounce in 2013. (via Gold futures extend gains in Asian trading – Metals Stocks – MarketWatch).

Is the US Treasury or the US Federal Reserve buying gold? This Chinese cartoonist seems to suggest that. | Cartoonist Luojie, China Daily, China on 9/28/2010 12:00:00 AM; Source & courtesy - caglecartoons.com | Click for larger source image.

Go East, young man

And here is one more take on the gold prices which seems to suggest that with Asian (read as India+China) demand strong as ever, this dip in prices is just a good buying opportunity.

2ndlook will go with that.

Paradoxically, optimism is actually bolstered by the widespread suspicion the slide was triggered by central bank selling — a once-radical idea now so generally accepted that the bullion bank UBS, usually very circumspect about official-sector activity, felt able to say on Friday that “larger moves were also likely taking place behind the scenes, judging from the considerable market chatter about official liquidation.”

The reasoning here: Once the abnormal, politically motivated selling ceases, gold will revert to a higher equilibrium.

But the most concrete reason for optimism emerged on Friday: It became apparent that the lows of Thursday had uncovered large Eastern physical demand.

UBS commented that “the physical market has now responded: Combined turnover on the [Shanghai Gold Exchange] this week has been consistently strong and is about 53% higher than the previous week’s, while demand from India is shaping up to be the strongest weekly offtake since early October.”

Over at LeMetropoleCafe, a correspondent reported very high local premiums for gold in the key gold-buying markets of China and India on Friday, suggesting strong local demand, and headlined: “Year-end gold menu: Bear Curry or Bear Chow Mein?” (via The East Is Gold? – Peter Brimelow – MarketWatch).

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