India’s Deficient Healthcare System: Is Public Healthcare the Only Model?

Must India model its healthcare system on the vastly inefficient and costly healthcare system of the West?

US Healthcare costs and expenditure | Credits and source details embedded in image.

he Euro-zone health system costs the tax-payer close to a trillion dollars (two-thirds of total healthcare expenditure paid by the State; total healthcare expenditure by EU is 10% of EU GDP, that is US$ 15 trillion). Ditto multiplied by two for the US.  One trillion and two trillion for EU and US respectively.

As a result of high tobacco consumption, aging problem, China’s expenditure on healthcare is expected to be a trillion dollars by 2020, due to proposed expansion of facilities, coverage.

The combined population of the US and EU is about the 800 million – versus the 1200 million of India. Even if due to lower costs, India were to replicate the EU and US systems, the expenditure will be US$3 trillion. That is 50% more than the Indian GDP.

Simplistic?

Sure. But, if we are going to throw around billions and trillions that belong to taxpayers, why worry?

These systems will collapse – and when that happens, there will be plagues and epidemics across the West.

Remember that less than a 100 years ago, the flu-epidemic killed tens of millions in the West. Conservative estimates start at 2 crores, go to realistic estimates of 4 crores (40 million) and some estimates go beyond 5 crores (50 million). This depletion in population, coupled with WWI deaths toppled the West into the Great Depression, ten years later.

As John M. Barry, author of “The Great Influenza,” has observed, “Influenza killed more people in a year than the Black Death of the Middle Ages killed in a century; it killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years.”

via Grounding a Pandemic – New York Times.

The State as the natural and logical answer to every social problem is uniquely modern extension of Desert Bloc model of governance. The confidence that media and academia project in this model has no relation to reality.

We have seen the collapse of Spain, Portugal as imperial powers, Britain is at a tipping point – and many expect Pax Americana to follow.

Why must India duplicate this vastly inefficient and costly healthcare system of the West, as this recent article in the FT suggests.

Western governments could haul New Delhi to the WTO dispute panel to challenge its patent law as non-compliant with global trade rules, generics executives’ and health activists’ bigger worry is that the EU, and eventually the US, will secure provisions in new free-trade deals. These provisions would give western drugmakers more tools to stop Indian generic rivals.

Western pharmaceutical companies counter that India’s real health crisis is not the price of a handful of patented drugs but of a government that has abdicated its responsibility to ensure decent healthcare for its citizens. India’s government spends less than 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product on healthcare.

Some western companies, led by GlaxoSmithKline, are trying tiered pricing strategies in India to reflect the extremes of its wealth and poverty. Merck Sharp and Dohme sells its patented diabetes drug Januvia in India for about $24 per month, 80 per cent lower than its global price.

Still, the cut-rate price for Januvia has not deterred Glenmark, an Indian generics firm, from making its own version, which it sells for 30 per cent less than the discounted price. Last month MSD tried unsuccessfully to get a court order stopping Glenmark from selling its medicine, and protracted litigation lies ahead.

“You can parachute free medicine across the country but that will not improve access because you don’t the health infrastructure,” says Mr Shahani. “You don’t have doctors, you don’t have nurses, you don’t have nursing homes and you don’t have diagnostics.”

Shortages of nurses and orderlies meant young doctors had to do menial tasks such as carrying laboratory samples or wheeling patients into the operating theatre.

The junior doctors say the public hospital is so overstretched – and poorly managed – that they have to make snap decisions on how to handle patients, as if processing the wounded from a battlefield.

“This government doesn’t want patients to die, so our major concern is to prevent death, but what about proper management after that?” asks Sameer Prabhakar, a doctor at Safdarjung. “A doctor seeing 100 patients a day won’t have time.”

Safdarjung’s problems resonate across India’s public health system, which is starved of funds. Clinics struggle to cope with the flow of patients who can spend days queueing to see a doctor, only to be told they will have to wait months for treatment – even for potentially fatal diseases such as cancer.

India has just six doctors and nine hospital beds for every 10,000 people, compared with 15 doctors and 38 beds in China, and 24 doctors and 30 beds in the US, according to UN data. “The biggest question is: why is the government not building more hospitals and opening more medical colleges?” says Dr Prabhakar.

The emergence of swish upmarket private hospitals catering to India’s rich and middle classes is exacerbating the strain on public hospitals, as doctors, nurses and other specialists are drawn to the higher salaries and better working conditions.

With India spending just 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product on health – compared with nearly 3 per cent in China – the problems will not be resolved easily. Many poor Indians go to unqualified quacks. Lower middle-class patients are driven to private hospitals they cannot afford, clocking up debt to pay for essential treatment.

via India: Patents and precedents – FT.com.

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• Should pharma MNCs be peeved? (rediff.com)
• India’s Solution To Drug Costs: Ignore Patents And Control Prices – Except For Home Grown Drugs (forbes.com)
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Japan’s Child Pop. shrinks By 150,000 to a record low

India has more children than the total population of any country in the world – except China.

How about doing a few things just coz they are right? Mebbe not ‘necessarily’ ‘profitable’ | Joel Pett, Lexington (Ky.) Herald-Leader, Cartoonists and Writers Syndicate, and was published on December 7, 2009 in USA TODAY

f people are becoming richer, more educated, in better living conditions, in a technologically superior time than any other in history, why can’t they afford children?

Earlier, when the father alone could raise a family of ten, today’s parents are afraid that, “even two incomes are no longer enough to make ends meet before pay day.”

You Pay For This …

The One Big reason that parents in the West and Japan are not having children is because of the cost.

Sheer economic costs.

A recent post in the Newsweek elicited much discussion and reactions – broadly falling into two categories.

Personal financial limitations and difficulties and social values on the other hand.

Apart from a sermonizing David Cameron, in UK, a recent report suggested that just one child, “a child from birth to adulthood will cost £140,000. This means the average couple works two years to fund each offspring – couples with children are twice as likely to file for bankruptcy as those without.”

The Other Big reason is, Western social and political leaders have made it uncool to have children.

Like this French woman-writer, Corinne Maier, who, disturbed at an exhibition of Belgian surrealists, decided, “at that point, I thought, ‘I really regret it, I regret having children.’ ” Her subsequent book, “40 Reasons for Not Having Children” in French, was also translated and sold well in English.

An American ‘comedian’ Adam Carolla was caught moralizing: “The best parenting of all is not shitting out the kids when you can’t afford the kids.”

The last word on this.

The Optimum Population Forum judges the price of a condom to have had a nine million per cent “return on investment” when set against the cost to the planet of having a child.

In such a moral atmosphere, which self-respecting set of parents would start a family?

It is a brave child, who dares to come into this kind of unwelcome society.

This over-production, over-waste, over-war model can change. How about a 2ndlook? | Cartoon by Steve Greenberg on Oct. 22, 1994. in Seattle Post Intelligencer. For an updated cartoon – http://goo.gl/r9HLa

Am I Backward?

Why is the ‘developed’ world choose to commit a ‘demographic’ suicide.

Beats me!

But then, by common consensus of the superior Western media and its Brown-American cheerleaders, I am from an under-developed country like India.

Can I even begin to understand ‘development’?

By the way, here are the latest stats on the self-inflicted genocide of Japan.

As the nation celebrated the national Children’s Day holiday on May 5, the number of children under 15 years of age fell 150,000 from a year earlier to a record low 16.49 million as of April 1, according to government estimates released on May 4.

The child population shrank for the 32nd consecutive year and hit the lowest level since statistics became available in 1950, the internal affairs ministry said.

The estimates, based on national population census and other surveys, were compiled for Children’s Day on May 5.

Those under 15 years of age accounted for 12.9 percent of the total population, one of the lowest levels in the world. The corresponding figure is 19.6 percent in the United States, 16.5 percent in China and 15.6 percent in South Korea.

According to the estimates, there were 8.44 million boys and 8.04 million girls. By age, 3.55 million were between 12 and 14; 3.4 million were between 9 and 11; 3.2 million were between 6 and 8; 3.17 million were between 3 and 5; and 3.16 million were between 0 and 2.

via Child population shrinks 150,000 to record low 16.49 million – AJW by The Asahi Shimbun.

Compelling logic, eh? First you impoverish people, then take away everything – and then blame them for all the problems! | Cartoon by Catherine Pain in a post titled Why are we surprised when we get what we pay for? on 24 April 2013; source & courtesy – open.ac.uk

By the way, the Indian children are nearly 31% of the gross population – and India has about 44 crore children.

India has more children than the total population of any country in the world – except China.

Related Articles

• Japan’s child population falls for 32nd year in row (english.kyodonews.jp)
• Lessons From Record Decrease in Japan’s Population (quicktake.wordpress.com)
• Over 2,000 fewer farmers every day (thehindu.com)
• Bogus ADHD diagnoses on the rise (douglassreport.com)
• Japan’s population falls by record level (japantimes.co.jp)
• Japan: The worst developed country to be a mother? (bbc.co.uk)
• Leave them alone (guardian.co.uk)
• China’s one-child policy increasingly being questioned (pri.org)
• Saving Japan: promoting women’s role in the workforce would help (japantimes.co.jp)

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Rajiv Malhotra – Fountain Of Gyaan For Desi Indians

Inferior desi mind is Rajiv Malhotra’s biggest target. Phoren Maal like Rajiv Malhotra have superior minds.

Rajiv Malhotra has has to run down everything that modern India has achieved. Why this antipathy to India? | Twitter – RajivMessage- Tata’s Nano will worsen … 2013-04-28 14-25-45 | Click to go message.

ajiv Malhotra, I have bad news for you!

Too Late

It is a little late in the day to run down Tata Nano.

The Indian consumer has decided that at nearly Rs.2.0 lakhs the Tata Nano is not the deal that Ratan Tata had promised at Rs.1.0 lakh.

Sorry! One less, juicy Indian target, for you to run down!

Surely He Knows

But then, Rajiv Malhotra is not running down the Tata Nano for the lack of consumer acceptance.

He is attacking three things: -

1. How can Someone in India decide that they will design a car for India – in India, by Indians, made in India.

Now this is something that few outside Europe, Japan, and the US have been able to do. Korea alone has done this, after Japan. China’s attempts at car making have been plagued by charges of copy-cat engineering – unlike the Nano.

How can backward Indians do this? They have to be wrong, according to Rajiv Malhotra.

2. India will increase oil dependence by Tata Nano, says Rajiv Malhora.

This is his weakest argument. Indians have not accepted the Tata Nano. Instead have decided to go for diesel cars – which return a mileage much better than petrol. Also tax rates on diesel are much lower than on petrol.

The Indian Government misrepresents the difference in tax-rates between diesel and petrol as subsidy on diesel.

3. Inferior desi mind is Rajiv Malhotra’s biggest target. Phoren Maal like Rajiv Malhotra have superior minds.

India must go electric, says Rajiv Malhotra. Make electric cars.

In a country which does not produce enough electricity to light up all households 24-hours a day, India must now add electric cars and increase demand for electricity.

Such superior thinking Phoren Maal has!

Assuming that India can increase electricity production, what fuel will it use for electricity production? Coal, which it will have to import? Same dependence story! Domestic coal which has a high ash content? Washed domestic coal, which will make electricity more expensive than it is? Produce electricity using imported natural-gas that will increase import dependence further?

Maybe India should have lower the cost of public transport – and increase public transport? But that is such a unglamorous idea? Will it get him more twitter followers? Will adoring young men and women throng to hear him about public transport? I guess not!

Indians Love China Stories

But if he talks of how China is making great progress in electric cars, he is likely to get more twitter followers? More thronging audiences.

Never mind the fact, that facts go against Rajiv Malhotra’s brilliant ideas for us desi Indians.

One – China is the world’s largest car market. And electric cars comprise less than 0.1% of its car population. Actually, it is 0.06%. This is the great leap-frog, Malhotra-ma-an?

By the way, the biggest story on electric cars in not the car but the battery. Current Lithium batteries are too expensive. Probably aluminum-air batteries will make electric cars feasible. And where is China in all this? Nowhere.

Two – In August 2010, global media was agog with a traffic jam in China that was 10 days long.

Three- China’s electricity production using coal, is making air unbreathable in all major Chinese cities. China is trying to increase solar energy. But sadly!

3 weeks before this great tweet-gyaan from Rajiv Malhotra came our way, China’s largest solar-panel producer, Suntech declared bankruptcy.

Belly up!

Just like Rajiv Malhotra’s gyaan.

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• Revolutionary low cost has not made Tata Nano a success (nextbigfuture.com)
• Made in India, for India: Can this revolution happen? (rediff.com)
• Mahindra E2O Electric Minicar Launches In India, Nee Reva NXR (elonmusktesla.wordpress.com)

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Chinese Softpower: No Answer To Hollywood

Deng’s China has decided that China must give up its pre-Maoist past – and become ‘modern’. Result – China has become a huge market for Hollywood now.

China informs the world that Hollywood film Django is being released in China. Such an important event, no! | ‘#Django’ might get unchained in China’s theaters in May http://bit.ly/12LwGz5 | Twitter – globaltimesnews- ‘#Django’ might get unchained … 2013-04-26 09-06-57 | Click for original tweet.

hina has long wanted to lead in soft-power – a major force in global culture and arts.

However, this objective has eluded China.

Sun Yat Sen To Now

Modern China‘s pillars are all foreign – especially from the West. Communism from Europe, social media forums like Weibo is a Twitter clone. But possibly the biggest failure is in films.

India with Bollywood films has the largest number of productions and viewers. Africa has now jumped ahead of Hollywood – and China, in production numbers and viewership.

But it was not always like that.

Shaw Brothers had built, out of Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, over the last 70 years, an enviable base of Chinese film narrative. This was based on Chinese themes – Buddhism, Boxer Revolution (China’s version of India‘s 1857 War), Kung Fu, Japanese colonialism in China. These ideas appealed not just to Chinese audiences, but even global audiences.

However, Deng’s China has decided that China must give up its pre-Maoist past – and become ‘modern’.

Result – China has become a huge market for Hollywood now.

What’s Language Got To Do …

When you ‘follow’ foreign culture, you also end up losing control over your culture. Like this recent post pointed out, how Hollywood with Kung Fu Panda-II is trying to define the future of India-China relations.

Africa’s adoption of Arabic, Jewish abandonment of their language, have made these cultures into peripheral entities in the world today. In India, government subsidies to English in higher education has extended the life of a colonial imposition to much beyond pragmatic usage.

English has become a sub-religion in India like cricket.

In India …

A very remarkable effect of this in India is the effect English has on Indian minds. For instance, Arvind Kejriwal’s Party, AAM AAdmi Party (AAP) has looked to the US for every inspiration. This inspiration-by-the-US ideas are not based on study of the US – but on the propaganda by US media.

For instance corruption.

Just one scandal in the US, is bigger than all corruption cases that have ‘allegedly’ happened in the last nearly 70 years of independent India. The nearly US$8 trillion of unaccounted /partially accounted hole in the US Department of Defense.

Yet a founder of the AAP tweets on US governance. Not surprisingly, it based on ‘optics’ – but on any critical appreciation of the US.

In the meantime, back to China. China’s prime English newspaper /website, Global Times has decided to inform the world that Chinese will be able to see ‘Django Unchained.’

A major event, I presume.

Two weeks after the Hollywood film Django Unchained was pulled from theaters on the day it premiered on the Chinese mainland, rumors began to spread on the Internet that the film had passed the country’s censorship requirements again and would return to Chinese screens.

Reliable sources said that the first film from director Quentin Tarantino to come to the Chinese mainland will be available for film lovers in May, popular movie information and ticket booking website mtime.com reported Thursday.

“The former edition to be released in cinemas is almost the same as the editions released overseas, which were edited by Quentin Tarantino. That edition had few problems generally, and after the suspension, only some nude scenes were cut from the film. I suppose it will be on screens after May Day,” sina.com.cn reported.

via ‘Django’ might get unchained in China’s theaters in May – CHINA – Globaltimes.cn.

Related Articles

 

• Hollywood Games In China (quicktake.wordpress.com)

• Hollywood yielding to China’s growing film clout (sfgate.com)
• Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained Suddenly Cancelled Due to ‘Technical Reasons’ (contactmusic.com)
• US kowtows to China’s artistic licence (theage.com.au)
• Hollywood’s China Solution: Two Versions Of Some Movies (forbes.com)
• Django Unchained get a second official release in China (guardian.co.uk)
• Troops still camped, but China denies LAC crossing (thehindu.com)
• ‘India, China have wisdom to defuse row’ (thehindu.com)
• China rejects reports on border incursion (thehindu.com)
• Can Hollywood Romance Chinese Film-Goers? (theatlantic.com)

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Adoration Of The West: Cannot Stop, Cannot Rest, Cannot End

Yet no Indian leader gets the kind of respect that foreign leaders get in India..

X

Even if u dont like Obama, but that's how u fill some hope into ur citizens. RT @dna We will find you: Obama tells Boston marathon bombers—
Dreamer (@Dreamer_Anu) April 18, 2013

@Dreamer_Anu Our politicians are so unmanly unlike these Yummrikans #PhorenMainAisaNahinHota I believe even their sweat has sandalwood smell—
St. PT Barnum (@StPTBarnum) April 18, 2013

argaret Thatcher’s death unleashed a wave of grief.

Guess what? In India.

In the last 70 years, the Anglo-Saxon Bloc has gone downhill. From a position of absolute world power to being challenged by China – and now even India.

Yet no Indian leader gets the kind of respect that foreign leaders get in India.

Does it stop here?

Look at this twitter exchange here.

Let NIA take time, rather than fake results “@umasudhir: @chaitanyadj @madarassi do u know of any one arrested for Gokul Chat?”—
Praveen Swami (@praveenswami) April 18, 2013

@praveenswami @umasudhir @madarassi Yeah?As NIA was taking its time there was another blast near GokulChat! Meanwhile lets wait for another?—
Chaitanya (@chaitanyadj) April 18, 2013

FBI cases years old unsolved. Investigating tougher than tweeting “@chaitanyadj: @umasudhir @madarassi Meanwhile lets wait for another?”—
Praveen Swami (@praveenswami) April 18, 2013

simplistic reading of the tweet can be taken to mean, ‘FBI is the gold standard. And since FBI is taking time, NIA can also take time.’

Going by Praveen Swamy’s general tenor, it is not far-fetched to see what Praveen Swami implies. But for Indian chatterati, twitterati, FBookeratti, bloggeratti, hero worship of the West cannot stop, cannot rest, cannot end.

The last word.

@praveenswami @umasudhir @madarassi FBI/CIA ensured there was no incident aftr 9/11 till 2days back!.Can I atleast hv some say"I can hear U"—
Chaitanya (@chaitanyadj) April 18, 2013

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China:The Limits of Central Control

Chinese Govt drives a consensus with regional govts – using mostly persuasion, sometimes post-facto ratification, rarely central diktat..

China lifts Uncle Sam; cartoon by rodrigo; on September 02, 2009 Published at http://www.expresso.pt on August 25th, 2009; source & courtesy – toonpool.com

hina’s governance, in reality is contrary to the image widely projected or popularly understood.

Instead of a monolithic, unitary, autocratic dictatorship the Chinese central Government drives a consensus with regional governments – using mostly persuasion, sometimes by post-facto ratification, rarely by central diktat.

Smoke On Water

Probably the worst example of Chinese governance is production and promotion of tobacco smoking by regional governments. As cigarettes are a large part of the revenue for regional governments, cigarette smoking has been passively encouraged. Sometimes even actively.

China’s expenditure on internal policing and law & order is larger than China’s defense expenditure. If the control of the China’s central government was so strong, why is its expenditure on internal security so high?

There are many other elements to the Chinese puzzle.

Bit by bit

Earlier posts had examined the Chinese economy that thrived on exports for the last nearly twenty years aided by and supported with a cheap yuan. Will China go the Japan way?

The mysterious manner in which the Buddhist monk has disappeared from Chinese movies is an ominous feature. Especially when the Buddhist monk has been replaced by gangsters. To this add, how Tibetan protests in the form of self-immolation by priests and nuns have unnerved the Chinese administration.

Coming to foreign policy, Indian media paints a unreal picture of the Chinese threat. Even in the past, in the 1965 and the 1971 India-Pakistan Wars, China  maintained a distant attitude towards Pakistan, providing little more than verbal support to Pakistan. Indian Navy in the South China Sea, in alliance with Vietnam, is a significant counter-measure to aggressive posturing by China in the Indian North East.

Catching on and catching up with the emerging China picture.

The reality is that power in China is much less concentrated than it was in the days of Mao and Deng.

Far from being the all-powerful behemoth that some in the west admire for its omnipotence, the central government can often be oddly ineffectual and powerless.

A slightly frivolous but nonetheless instructive example is the government’s complete ban on the construction of golf courses that has been in place since 2004.

Since then the number of golf courses in China has nearly quadrupled. The point is that Beijing produces many well-intentioned laws and regulations that are often not implemented or enforced unless they directly align with the interests of cadres at the lower levels of state power.

The central government can impose its will and mobilise the nation when it absolutely has to but it uses up an enormous chunk of political capital every time it does that.

Because of this, China’s leaders tend to spend a lot of time giving positive speeches but they only really swing into action when faced with a serious crisis.

A good example was the Sars epidemic that emerged from southern China almost exactly 10 years ago and presented the now outgoing administration of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao with their first big test at the outset of their time in office.

After trying first to cover it up they finally responded by mobilising the entire country and eventually brought the disease under control. Mr Xi and his team have not yet been tested with their equivalent of a Sars moment but when they are it will provide more of an insight into their ability to govern the world’s most populous nation

via Xi’s task exposes limits of central control – FT.com.

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Kargil: Breast Beating In Pakistan

Kargil Misadventure: Pakistan’s superficial ‘analysis’ and breast-beating after each defeat hides a deeper problem.

India operated Hawker Hunter Mark 56 (designation for Hunter F.Mark 6) bought from Britain that was phasing out these aircraft.

n the India-Pakistan War of 1965, there was a real risk of China joining in with a third front against India. Thundering in the parliament, Pakistan’s foreign minister at that time, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto assured the Pakistani nation of China’s support.

In the event of war, Pakistan would not be alone. Pakistan would be helped by the most powerful nation in Asia. War between India and Pakistan involves the territorial integrity and security of the largest State in Asia. (Z.A. Bhutto, Foreign Minister, Pakistan, in the National Assembly; July 17, 1963).

Though China was neutral, India had its hands full. Pakistan as member of SEATO and CENTO, was brimming with the most advanced arms – supplied by the US. As a part of the Baghdad Pact, Britain was on Pakistan’s side.

When PAF Was In Better Shape

In the 1965 War situation, Pakistan was part of the CENTO and SEATO alliance, armed by the US with the US F-104 Starfighters, F-86 Sabres that were significantly superior to Indian Airforce (IAF).

The US attached, like in Vietnam, Laos, Norway, Cambodia what was then called a Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) to Pakistan. A few months before Pakistan commenced hostilities, the US head of MAAG was changed. In May 1965, General Robert Wiygul Burns became chief of the Military Assistance Advisory Group, Pakistan. Over the next two years, in the face of increasing evidence of the US role in the 1965 war, the MAAG was withdrawn from Pakistan in July 1967. After neo-colonial wars in  Korea, Vietnam, Indo-China, the MAAG became infamous. Mostly renamed as United States Military Groups (USMILGP or MILGRP), MAAGs continue in some Latin American countries such as Peru, the Dominican Republic. Also MAAGs can be found in Africa for instance in Liberia.

Two years later, under a new name, US military advisers were back in Pakistan. Star pilots and trainers like Chuck Yeagaer were sent by the US to Pakistan – to help Pakistan prepare for a battle against Soviet weapons being used by India in 1971 War.

Hands Tied

Comprising of Vampires of WWII vintage, the French Mirage Mysteres, the Anglo-Hawker Hunters and Canberras or the Anglo-Gnats, the IAF went into the 1965 War at a disadvantage. By the 1971 War, the IAF had re-configured tactics, using numbers, altitude to overwhelm the Sabres with inferior Gnats – starting with the airfight at Boyra.

Compared to the nearly 10,000 Sabres that were manufactured world-wide, less than 450 Gnats were built; mostly bought by Indians. The Yugoslavs bought second-hand F-86s in preference to the Gnats. The RAF itself did not buy Gnat for any conflict role – but only for aerobatic, trainer usage.

Indian officers /soldiers atop captured Pakistani Patton tanks at Kemkaran. About 100 Patton tanks were left behind by the retreating Pakistan Army. These captured tanks were used to set up Patton Nagar war memorial.

Though believed, Pakistan’s more modern Patton tanks were not as superior to the Indian Centurions. At the end of 1965 War, India captured 97 Pakistani tanks – and set up a war memorial called Patton Nagar with these captured tanks.

India’s Diplomatic Position

India’s relationship with the Soviets had not yet reached the levels of the 1970s.

What and who stopped China from joining Pakistan in its assault on India? Stalin’s lukewarm response to Nehru’s overtures and the alleged CIA plot to kill Nehru in 1955, temporarily brought Nehru close to Eisenhower. After the 1965 War with Pakistan, India-Soviet alliance grew in strength.

Wailing & Breast-beating

The last one year has seen a lot of ‘analysis’ in Pakistan, about Pakistan’s misadventure in Kargil.

Pakistan’s superficial breast-beating after each defeat hides a deeper problem. Can a nation born out of blackmail – apart from hate, prejudice, have a foreign policy that makes sense.

ISLAMABAD, Feb 16: Former corps commander Lahore Lt-Gen (retired) Shahid Aziz on Saturday said problems in the armed forces are increasing as the army chiefs have been trying to cover up issues fearing it would defame the organisation.

He was speaking at the launch of his book Yeh Khamoshi Kahan Tak at Islamabad Club on Saturday.

Gen Aziz, who played a role in Pervez Musharraf’s coup and also held an important post in the army and ISI at the time of the Kargil war, said his aim to write the book was to guide the new generation.

It may be noted that Gen Aziz also worked as chairman of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) for about two years after his retirement from the army in 2005.

Gen Aziz said while taking part in the coup he knew that he was violating the law.

While in service, he added, so many times he had to disagree with the decisions of his seniors and even resigned from the staff college.

He claimed that he was against the decision of following the instructions of United States but Musharraf insisted that only he could see the full picture of the situation. “Even today the policy of Musharraf is being followed,” said Gen Aziz.

Speaking on the occasion, Prof Ashraf Sarab of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), said when the Kargil adventure was started the Kashmiris were asked by the army to take to the streets because they (forces) had decided to enter the Indian held Kashmir.

“But after sacrificing a number of soldiers, the army went back,” he added.

“I talked to then Minister for Kashmir Affairs Majeed Malik but he said Kashmiris should not have started protests.”

It showed that the Kargil war was either a strategic mistake or launched on the directions of someone else, because after the war India and US came closer to each other, he observed.

Engineer Mumtaz from the research and development wing of the armed forces told Dawn that Gen Aziz was the key person during the Musharraf coup. Gen Musharraf used to get his input regarding every decision, he added.

via Army covering up issues, claims ex-general | Newspaper | DAWN.COM  .

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• Pak backstabbing India since Independence (ibnlive.in.com)
• Tell us the truth on Kargil, demands Pakistani daily (vancouverdesi.com)
• A backhanded compliment for Musharraf (thehindu.com)
• You: Musharraf slams Indian media for fabricating anti-Pakistan ‘propaganda, lies’ (nation.com.pk)
• Was Kargil a Blunder? (opinion-maker.org)
• Did General Musharraf cross the LoC ahead of Kargil conflict? (ndtv.com)
• Don’t create trust deficit, Pranab tells Pakistan (thehindu.com)

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In A G-0 World, Can BRICS Show Leadership?

For the world now, instead of ‘G-7, or G-8, or G-20, the more apt description is G-0′ - per Joseph Stiglitz. Can BRICS offer that leadership – starting Afghanistan.

From 1970s, when Pakistan started meddling in Afghan affairs, by how much have Soviet or the American invasions helped Afghanistan? | Cartoon By Jeff Darcy, The Cleveland Plain Dealer – 5/21/2012 12:00:00 AM via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.

ith NATO turning tail and leaving, Afghanistan is not much better off than before America’s invasion.

Pakistan, as the sole Islāmic nuclear power, has assigned itself the role of an arbiter of Afghan destiny – a hold over Afghanistan’s future. With its dubious distinction of being a failed State, should Pakistan have any role in Afghanistan?

After ruining Afghanistan with 40 years of disastrous interventions, the West playing the victims is an offensive act | Cartoon By Taylor Jones, El Nuevo Dia, Puerto Rico – 9/7/2012 12:00:00 AM via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.

The West, under NATO’s military command, is walking away from Afghanistan with nothing to show for this invasion.

After billions in dollars, with more than a million Afghans affected by death, combat injuries, manifold increase in corruption, and a Saudi-Pakistan financed Taliban is on the rise, Afghanistan is West’s biggest failure after Vietnam. Never before in the last 200 years has West’s leadership been in question so much.

In the current State of the world, in the memorable words of Joseph Stiglitz, why ‘talk about the G-7, or G-8, or G-20, the more apt description is G-0.’

Afghanistan was a much better place one millennium ago – as its agricultural exports, arts and crafts will testify. It is the US-Pakistani involvement from the 70s, which has made Afghanistan into a no-man’s land. | Cartoon By Jimmy Margulies, The Record of Hackensack, NJ – 10/11/2012 12:00:00 AM via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.

Afghanistan will be the test of BRICS.

Till 1980s, the Soviet Union bordered Afghanistan. Today, while Soviet Union’s successor, Russia no longer shares a border with Afghanistan, as a part of BRICS grouping, it may continue to play a role in post-NATO Afghanistan.

Will China-India tensions come in the way of BRICS to do what is good for Afghanistan? Will China work with BRICS to keep Pakistan out of Afghanistan? When it matters, can BRICS nations put aside their differences and work on common problems – like Afghanistan?

Straightening Pakistan is a matter of hours. What will take time is building capacity among BRICS nations to work together on common problems – and put aside differences, when these differences are not directly relevant.

One thing is for sure.

If BRICS cam make an Afghan solution stick, a new age will dawn in global diplomacy. The current void in global leadership will start getting filled.

Civil war in Afghanistan is directly the result of Western interventions in the last 40 years. | Cartoon by By Arend Van Dam, politicalcartoons.com – 10/24/2012 12:00:00 AM via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.

With the US and the UK apparently conceding to Pakistan the lead role in reconciliation with Taliban, India is set to hold talks with Russia and China on emerging scenarios in Afghanistan ahead of the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force’s withdrawal from the conflict-ravaged country by 2014.

New Delhi is also expected to air its concern over Pakistan’s role in the peace-process in Afghanistan during British Prime Minister David Cameron’s visit to India scheduled on Monday. Cameron recently hosted Afghan and Pakistan presidents Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari at his country residence Chequers Court. India will get another opportunity to discuss the issues when it will have a trilateral talk with the US and Afghanistan in New Delhi next week.

Sources said India is expected to drive home the point that Pakistan continues to be “a part of the problem” and it cannot yet be seen as “a part of the solution” in Afghanistan. Any hasty careless move to launch the peace process would in fact give an opportunity to Taliban to crawl back to power after 2014. New Delhi is likely to point out that the US itself, in 2011, publicly slammed Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence for its role in fomenting terrorism in Afghanistan.

What worries India is the Afghan High Peace Council’s five-step draft roadmap to 2015, would ultimately give Pakistan the “strategic depth” it always aspired to have in Afghanistan. New Delhi is apprehensive about Washington outsourcing to Islamabad the peace-process with Taliban, before and after the drawdown of the International Security Assistance Force from Afghanistan.

The “draft road map” also seeks to give some key positions in post-2014 Afghanistan to the leaders of Taliban, including that of provincial governors, police chiefs and cabinet ministers.

To facilitate the peace-process, Pakistan, since November, released 26 Taliban prisoners from its jails, ostensibly on request from Afghanistan but without any oversight, triggering fear that some of them might go back to extremism.

When Menon broached the issue during a meeting of the BRICS high representatives for security in New Delhi last month, it was agreed that he and his counterparts from Russia and China would have a separate meeting to exchange views on the peace-process with Taliban and discuss the emerging scenarios in Afghanistan. Sources said the meeting might take place later this month.

New Delhi has made it clear that it is in favour an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process towards peace in Afghanistan but insisted that the “Red Lines” agreed in London Conference in 2010 were strictly adhered to and the extremists entering the process were made to severe all links with Al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations.

via India to talk to China, Russia on Pak role in Afghanistan.

Related Articles

• Taliban dismiss outcome of Pak-Afghan-UK conference (dawn.com)
• US supports Pak-Afghan deadline for Taliban deal (dawn.com)
• You: US endorses Pak Afghan UK summit declaration (nation.com.pk)
• Pak-Afghan peace pact in six months – The News International (thenews.com.pk)
• Pak-Afghan Ulema conference in Kabul on March 10: FO (dawn.com)
• You: India’s concerns over Gawadar Port unwarranted: FO (nation.com.pk)
• In India, Putin finds support on Afghanistan, Syria (indrus.in)
• Afghan and Pakistani presidents in Britain for talks (dawn.com)
• First phase of Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan begins (dawn.com)
• Pakistan wants improved ties with India, Afghanistan: Ashraf (dawn.com)

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Currency Trade: War or Peace?

Now that Japan has joined the currency devaluation game, it leaves the Euro twisting in the winds of currency storms.

The yen, trading at about 87 per dollar, has shed about 11 percent since mid-November when Shinzo Abe, who became Japan’s new prime minister following elections last month, promised a more aggressive monetary policy. | Graphic source & courtesy – cnbc.com

iven a choice between a Japanese car and Chinese, almost any car buyer in the world will opt for a Japanese brand.

If price difference is small.

But as we know the price difference between Japanese and Chinese cars (and other products also) is rather big.

How the Yen has become expensive. From nearly 290 yen:1 USD to 80 yen:1 USD | Graphic credit – wsj.net

The big reason for this price difference?

The Japan Case

Though not the only reason, the high cost of the Japanese Yen after the Plaza Accord (September 22, 1985) has painted the Japanese economy into a corner.

Japan on Thursday reported a record annual trade deficit in 2012, the second straight year in the red for an exporting nation that has long built its wealth on its vast trading surpluses.

The annual trade gap of 6.93 trillion yen (about $78 billion) was brought about by surging fuel imports and a continued slide in machinery shipments and other mainstay exports. The deficit underscores the challenges Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces as he tries to lift the world’s third-largest economy out of years of stagnation.

The deficit also brings to the forefront the risks that accompany Mr. Abe’s bid to revive the economy through government spending, which will add to Japan’s public debt, already more than twice the size of its economy. For years, export surpluses helped Japan finance that enormous debt without having to turn to foreign investors.

But that delicate balance is now unraveling. The global economic crisis set off a fall in Japanese exports, and also caused the yen to strengthen, weighing on the country’s competitiveness and recovery. The prolonged shuttering of the country’s nuclear reactors in the wake of the Fukushima crisis has led to a spike in Japan’s imports of oil and gas. A bitter territorial spat with China has hurt exports to Japan’s biggest trading partner.

The provisional data released by the Finance Ministry on Thursday showed exports continued to fall in December at a faster pace than forecast by economists, despite a weakening of the yen that should have come as a boon to exporters.

According to the data, Japan’s annual trade deficit jumped by 170 percent from the 2.56 trillion yen shortfall it recorded in 2011 to 6.93 trillion yen. Energy imports, mainly from the Middle East, surged, machinery and car exports fell across the board. By region, Japan’s exports to China tumbled by 10.8 percent, leaving Japan with a trade deficit of 3.52 trillion yen (about $40 billion) with its rising neighbor. Exports to the struggling European Union also fell by 15 percent.

Trade with the United States was brisk, however, with exports climbing 11.7 percent and imports by 2.5 percent for a 5.1 trillion yen (about $58 billion) surplus. Japanese automakers did particularly well in the United States last year, rebounding from production cuts brought about by Japan’s 2011 tsunami.

via Japan Reports a $78 Billion Trade Deficit for 2012 – NYTimes.com.

BoJ’s asset-purchase program has trailed other big central banks | Graphic source & courtesy – economist.com

The expensive Yen has increased the price of Japanese exports. Decreasing export-growth due to an expensive Yen, has led to a 20-year economic stagnation-deflation situation in Japan – now referred to as Japan’s Lost Decades (失われた10年 Ushinawareta Jūnen).

Could Japan’s actions to depreciate the Yen have been unilateral?

Highly unlikely.

Japan is the latest country to say enough is enough. Having seen its currency appreciate dramatically in recent years, prime minister Shinzo Abe’s new government is taking steps to alter the country’s exchange-rate dynamic – and is succeeding. In just over two months, the yen has weakened by more than 10% against the dollar and close to 20% against the euro.

via Currency war could cause lasting damage to world economy | Business | guardian.co.uk.

Japan’s new government has vowed to revive the economy and expectations for aggressive monetary easing are running high. This sets the scene for the yen to weaken to the 100-mark versus the dollar.

The yen, trading at about 87 per dollar, has shed about 11 percent since mid-November when Shinzo Abe became Japan’s new prime minister last month, promised a more aggressive monetary policy.

Keen to tackle the deflation that has dogged Japan’s economy for years, “The yen has fallen quickly and once it gets going, it gets going. What kind of number (in dollar/yen) do you need to fight deflation? I think we need to see dollar/yen at 110, 20 to say you’re on top of the deflation problem,” Jerram added.

Inflation in Japan fell 0.2 percent in November from a year earlier, after a 0.4 percent decline in October. A weak currency, brought about by aggressive monetary easing would help boost inflation, analysts say.

Japan’s current account surplus fell 29.4 percent in October from a year earlier to 376.9 billion yen ($4.58 billion) on a fall in exports.

They say another reason to expect further yen weakness this year is a brighter outlook for the global economy, which means there is more incentive for Japanese investors to put their money overseas.

“Everything is in place for a move in dollar/yen to 100, the only constraint being resistance from other major central banks to anyone else adopting a weak currency,” Societe Generale said.

via Picture This: The dollar at 100 Yen.

The Chinese Knot

A cheaper Japanese Yen affects China the most.

Any major currency appreciation, devaluation in the last 60-years has happened under the (what 2ndlook calls) USCAP system.

So, the noises being made of currency wars by Germany is probably to quieten other claims for currency depreciation – like Korea, Euro zone, Taiwan, Asian Tigers, et al.

Decreasing exports, incomes coupled with high production capacities has put Japan on the path of deflationary spiral. | Graphic credits embedded.

China seeks to replace the former Soviet Russia as the challenger to Pax Americana. This challenge by China to Pax Americana is based on manufacturing prowess and huge foreign currency reserves.

China’s Yuan has already appreciated to a 20-year high. In the current global scenario, China’s currency situation puts it in a weak situation. China’s economic engines will seize, if the Japanese Yen were to depreciate to ¥110-120.

EU’s Sports Complex

The interesting point is how EU manages its trade deficit. Without blaming China-Yuan.

EU-zone countries like Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, are on the verge of a sovereign default. Euro-zone is upto its gills in debt. The Euro is being called names. And EU is not snivelling about the Yuan and China?

Very un-European!

USA, EU Trade Balance with Oil Producers (Graphic source and courtesy – http://www.eurotrib.com). Click for larger image.

Usually…

Europe is at the forefront seeing dangers, damage, affronts, threats, effects, fall-outs et al.

The whole she-bang!

But in case of China and Yuan, Europe is not doing much of crying about the ‘undervalued’ Yuan. The Euro revaluation from USD 1.6 four years ago to USD 1.25 now is a recent affair.

So, not of much consequence. The Yuan undervaluation has been on the US agenda for a few years now – with varying intensities. Euro-trade balance with China is slightly in China’s favour. All in all, good management by the Euro-zone, it appears.

Which in the current scenario is the one-bright-spot on the Euro-horizon!

In today’s world, no significant group of countries is looking for currency strength. Some resist appreciation actively and openly; others do so in a less visible manner. Only the eurozone seems to accept being on the receiving end of other countries’ actions.

via Currency war could cause lasting damage to world economy | Business | guardian.co.uk.

The German Footprint

Behind the Euro-zone is the Germanic template.

In the last twenty years, Germany has absorbed East Germany, without a hiccup. During the same period Japan entered into a deep stagnation-deflation phase – but not Germany. While the world succumbed to Chinese manufacturing onslaught, the German industrial complex kept humming - steadily. While the US economy stumbled from bankruptcy of the auto-industry to the dotcom bust and is now deep into the housing crisis, the German economy remained stable.

All this without seeking competitive currency devaluation.

countries nowadays, including systemically important ones, are already actively weakening their currencies. Yet, because an exchange rate is a relative price, all currencies cannot weaken simultaneously. How the world resolves this basic inconsistency over the next few years will have a major impact on prospects for growth, employment, income distribution, and the functioning of the global economy.

via Currency war could cause lasting damage to world economy | Business | guardian.co.uk.

Wars Before The War

WWII was preceded by 15-years (1921-1936) of currency devaluations. Will history repeat? Will the US take a break after ending the Afghan War in 2014 to start WWIII?

Related Articles

• Japan reports record $78.3B trade deficit in 2012 (miamiherald.com)
• Yen at 100 Per Dollar Endorsed by Japan Official Nishimura – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• Japanese Export Slide Bolsters Abe’s Case for Driving Down Yen – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• Business › Japan reports record Y6.93 tril trade deficit in 2012 (japantoday.com)
• Japan min-not trying to weaken yen, central bank (uk.reuters.com)
• Japan minister: not trying to weaken yen, central bank (news.yahoo.com)
• Japan December Industrial Output Rises Less-Than-Forecast 2.5% – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• Dollar Thrives in Age of Competitive Devaluations – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• Better Factory Output, Lower Manufacturing PMI Contraction Put Japanese Economy On The Path Of Recovery (ibtimes.com)
• Japan runs record trade deficit (bbc.co.uk)

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Pakistani Soldiers Behead Indian Soldiers at Line Of Control

For 60-years now, India and Pakistan have been trying to gain a better position at nearly 200 points on the LoC. What can India do now?

he India-Pakistan Line-of-Control (LoC) in Kashmir, has seen some military actions from both sides in recent weeks.

Media goes to war

The defining output from Indian media on the military action at LoC has been the following two stories.

DNA EXCLUSIVE: Uri commander’s forceful retaliation led to beheadings? @saikatd's story: dnai.in/bbn6—
  (@DNA) January 10, 2013

My article, on how a runaway grandmother set off events leading to the recent clashes on the Line of Control | thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/…—
Praveen Swami (@praveenswami) January 11, 2013

It is a sign of India’s maturing media, that global media has used these two stories to figure out the ‘real’ reasons for this bout of border escalations.

@pierrefitter Right now most people feel that Praveen & me have committed treason for doing the story @canarytrap—
Saikat Datta (@saikatd) January 10, 2013

While it may fit the Government of India objectives if passive sections of Indian media blames Pakistan, equally it would be aimless if the liberal-media blames India for the latest escalation.

@praveenswami of @thehindu claims all India's fault thne.ws/ZsYT8Y Ind. Army rejects claims of Runway Grandmother bit.ly/11mstSX—
St. PT Barnum (@StPTBarnum) January 12, 2013

India needs to indulge in show-piece talks for international diplomacy reasons. Who in Pakistan will India talk to? Is anyone in-charge of Pakistan? | Ajit Ninan in Pune Mirror on January 15, 2013

War and Peace

Yes, as of now it is only an escalation – and not a war. War with Pakistan is the most unlikely outcome.

Like it has been pointed out in previous posts, Pakistan does not have the financial capability, the war matériel, leave alone India, to fight a war with anyone.

Except maybe Maldives.

Above all, it is highly doubtful, if Pakistan has enough soldiers, who have the stomach to fight a war against India. Remember, Pakistan could muster no more than one thousand soldiers to take on India in Kargil.

Over the last 35 years, Pakistan’s capacity to meaningfully wage war against India has degraded.

Phoren Maal

If there is a rape in Delhi, we need Saudi justice.

If we lose two soldiers at the India-Pakistan border, we need to learn from Israel.

Our so-called experts in mainstream media and dominant voices in social media display their rank ineptitude, when they can only respond with such empty statements.

'Emulate Israel While Dealing With Pakistan', screams this Page 1 editorial in Jammu's State Times newspaper. | twitpic.com/bu70td—
Shiv Aroor (@ShivAroor) January 11, 2013

@ShivAroor Please tell that newspaper that Israel is in a mess. And we don't serve the strategic interests of the US like Israel does.—
Saikat Datta (@saikatd) January 11, 2013

Western war narratives have little relevance to India, as we live in a different context. It is received Western wisdom that nuclear powers do not fight wars with each other. Yet, India has fought five wars (1948, 1962, 1965, 1971, Kargil) and shares borders with two de facto nuclear powers – China and Pakistan.

No other country in the world shares a border with two nuclear powers.

So, What’s Going on?

@PawanDurani Ah. Retaliation doesn't have to be at the same place. In the Mendhar sector, Pakistan has tactical advantage @GargiRawat—
Saikat Datta (@saikatd) January 10, 2013

Across the nearly 800-kilometres border in Kashmir, in some places Indian and Pakistani soldiers are less than 50 metres apart.

For more than 60-years now, each side has tried to gain a better position at more than 200 strategic points on the LoC. The most famous such position is the Siachen glacier – which India regained and now controls at tremendous costs. It is unlikely that either side will stop jockeying for better positions on the LoC.

So, low-level conflict will continue.

India must now be prepared for small petty escalations by Pakistans | Kirtish Bhatt on September 23, 2010

Indian Options

War with Pakistan is not needed – or an answer. Any war with Pakistan will quickly mean:

1. International intervention
2. Achievement of Indian military objectives, if limited
3. Nuclear response from Pakistan, if India threatens Pakistan’s existence.

Aggressive actions at LoC will be enough. Since, Pakistan’s airforce is practically non-operational, a precision air-strafing exercise by Indian airforce will be ideal.

There will be a Pakistani response.

With a tit-for-tat bombing raid by Pakistan Airforce. Pakistan may also decide to use some of their HATF missiles. If an Indian missile defence can stage a shoot down of Pakistani fighter or a missile, it will be an ideal military response that will test Indian missile systems in real war conditions.

India’s development of air-response during the Kargil war, a first  in air-warfare, is going to be very useful to India.

Kargil strategy behind IAF chief's tough talk bit.ly/11rSwbc—
Bharat Rakshak (@bharatrakshak) January 14, 2013

Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Region | Image source & courtesy – longwarjournal.org

What does this mean?

With Obama on course to pull out troops from Afghanistan, there has been renewed threats being muttered from Pakistan.

Is this the time for India to make some points with Pakistan?

With Taliban making mayhem on the Pakistan’s North-Western Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), any actions by India on the Pakistan LoC, will keep Pakistan in check from meddling in Afghanistan – or in Kashmir.

This is also good time for India to rattle Pakistan, while China is preoccupied with Japan. While US is warm towards India, as it seeks to check China – and disillusioned with Pakistan.

Did anyone notice that this Pakistani provocation happened after the India-Pakistan cricket series – and after the Pakistan team reached home.

Related Articles

• India Ink: India Could Retaliate Against Pakistan for Beheading, Army Chief Says (india.blogs.nytimes.com)
• Killing of Indian soldiers unpardonable: Army chief (vancouverdesi.com)
• If provoked we will retaliate, says Army Chief General Bikram Singh (ndtv.com)
• India-Pakistan ping-pong (dawn.com)
• India army chief blames Pakistan of Kashmir attack, warns retaliation (vancouverdesi.com)
• Nuclear-armed India warns Pakistan of retaliation (worldnews.nbcnews.com)
• We will retaliate if provoked further, says Army Chief (thehindu.com)
• We didn’t violate border truce: Pakistan Army (vancouverdesi.com)
• India-Pak flag meeting fails to ease border tension (thehindu.com)

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