The idea of Pakistan!

हंस के लिए हैं पाकिस्तान, लड़ के लेंगे हिंदुस्तान

With a contemptuous smile, we robbed them off Pakistan;

Now we will battle, to conquer Hindustan

Synthesis of Pakistan

For many years, the above slogan (popular in pre-partition India amongst Muslims) summed up the idea of Pakistan. Pakistan was more about taking away from Hindustan than making and building a Pakistan. And that is no surprise.

Consider what Jinnah later boasted “I will tell you who made Pakistan: Myself, my secretary and his typewriter”. Many versions of the boast exist – though no one disputes the boast itself. Another writer narrates how Jinnah won “Pakistan merely with the assistance of “one Secretary and a typewriter machine”.

Yet another researcher writes how “Jinnah once claimed that “I have won Pakistan with the help of my Secretary and his typewriter”. One memoir of Khurshid, Jinnah’s Secretary, pretty much says the same thing, “I’ll tell you who made Pakistan. Myself, my secretary and his typewriter”. At yet another occasion he seems to have said, ” My dear man, I got you Pakistan with a typist and a typewriter.”

Apocryphal (as Jaswant Singh seems to suggest) or verbatim, this boast was repeated so many times and in the many versions, does capture the Pakistani mindset. The State of Pakistan was an artificial creation – and popular leaders like Sheikh Abdullah refused to even meet up with Jinnah and was deemed irrelevant.

Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn …

What partition era Indians remember most about the slogan above, was the indifference, to the fate of Pakistan by the soon-to-be Pakistanis – and their total India-centric focus. It is their reading, that the Pakistanis may not mourn away the passing away of Pakistan much – which is something that most Indians do not factor. Having got Pakistan for a song, they may soon be found snickering at its break up.

Is it this indifference which has allowed Pakistan to become a client state of the West?

Resident Non Indians

Some part of the Indian bureaucracy and English speaking media is possibly made up of RNIs (Resident Non-Indians), whose children and future, they have ’secured’ in the West – much like the indifferent Pakistanis.

And this may be the one quality, that possibly is the one thing, that the RNIs and Pakistanis share – indifference to the fate of the country.

Indian education – Stirrings at the margin

“Over 2 million children in 2,200 private schools across the country use his ‘Smartclass’ every day; 4 lakh kids so far are registered with online tutorial site WiZiQ; 4 lakh teachers have been trained just this year in skills they would have learnt if they had done a basic BEd; 14,000 computer labs have been built in government schools …

As for whether the distance education model is flagging, Prakash points to how its share in his revenues (65 per cent at the moment) is rising — just 2,200 of the 75,000 private schools have his Smartclasses and just 14,000 of the 925,000 government schools are covered by his computer labs, an indication of how much more scope there is.

According to a CLSA brokerage report, Prakash says, Indians spend $25 billion (Rs 112,500 crore) a year on education till Class 12 and another $5.5 billion on tutoring — needless to say, he wants to be part of this great business where, to quote him, demand outstrips supply by a huge margin and the business is cash-flow negative.

Much is known about 15-year old Educomp and its success — Revenues are up from Rs 112 crore in 2006-07 to Rs 517 crore in 2008-09; Return on Investment (RoI) from 12.92 to 16.04 per cent in the same period; Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) from 28.5 to 27.8 per cent; Return on Net Worth (RoNW) from 24.1 to 35.6 per cent … today, with 400 people just developing education content, in ten Indian languages, Prakash says, he has the largest team doing such work in the world.” (via Lunch with BS: Shantanu Prakash).

After 60 years …

More than 60 years after the departure of the British, Indian media at least seems to adore ‘phoren’ educated politicians as the following news extract shows. Another journalist was effusive in praise when a DMK minister, Azhagiri took oath of office in ‘faultless’ English.

Indian-English language media today finds merit just because these Central ministers are ‘phoren’ returned. While, Indian Universities have become recruiting grounds and supply centres to the West for trained and qualified manpower, Indian media thinks that only ‘phoren’ educated and returned are good enough.

Team Manmohan crammed with A-listers

Manmohan Inc’s team would be any multinational corporation’s dream. Resume for resume, its key members are in a league of their own.

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) council of ministers, led by the 78-year-old Cambridge-educated economist, has at least 14 ministers who have graduated from Ivy League universities like Harvard, Wharton, Stanford, MIT, Carnegie Mellon, and of course, Oxbridge. There are also Cabinet members who have degrees from US universities. (via Team Manmohan crammed with A-listers- Politics/Nation-News-The Economic Times).

English language media in India is still in its colonial haze – and to see such decadent, colonial ideas, 60 years after the British were thrown out, boggles my imagination. To approve of a politician, because he has English-language skills, or their ‘phoren’ education seems so important to these journalists, who seem to be wagging their ‘colonial’ tail with such approval – and vigor.

These journalists instead should have been worried that 60 years on, Indian Universities don’t seem to be meeting standards. And looking at the (seeming) failure of these Universities.

Higher education in India

This (mixed record) of Indian Universities can largely be laid at the doorsteps of the faulty educational policies that Indian Governments have been following. For one, why is the State increasing its role in education. For another, why is the Indian State supporting English language education with thousands of crores of subsidies – while Indian language education languishes.

80% of India’s population is excluded from higher education as Indian higher system is predominantly in English. Hence, this puts a premium on English – and discounts Indian languages in the educational sweepstakes. The negative effect this on Indian self esteem is not even a point of discussion here.

The principle of exclusion (a colonial idea) is a dominant marker of the entire Indian education system – rather than inclusion. British (and before that Islamic rulers’) colonial practices supported foreign languages on the backs of the Indian taxpayers’ contribution – and actively worked on destruction of local cultures.

For instance, in the erstwhile State Of Hyderabad (equal to about 10%-12% of modern India), ruled by the Nizam, a large non-British kingdom, 2000 year old local languages like Telugu and Marathi were considered uncouth and barbaric languages – compared to a 700 year old language like Urdu, which was supported by the State. Thus anyone without the knowledge of Urdu was excluded from the system. So it is now in India, with English.

This restricts 80% of India’s population from contribution and access to opportunity. Without looking at it from an ethical point, but purely as an economic question means we should look at the cost of this policy.

English In Higher Education Institutions

The problem is actually higher education. What is the future of Marathi medium students once they reach higher education institutions? The Indian state is penalizing the Indian tax payer by granting a monopoly to English in higher education.

Cost to the Indian economy

How does this hinder India? India loses every year about 200,000 highly educated people to the West. These 200,000 people have been educated at subsidized Indian Universities at a considerable cost to the poor Indian taxpayer. What return does the tax payer get from this? Negative returns.

What happens when English stops being an important language in the global sphere? What use will India’s investment in English be at that time? And this will happen sooner than we imagine – at a greater cost than we believe.

The Indian tax payer is creating a large body of English trained graduates, who are finally picked up by Western economies at zero cost. If these Indian graduates were trained in Indian languages, the West may find it difficult to absorb them at zero cost.

English education is now clearly a liability.

What is the cost of switching from English?

Assuming that a 100,000 essential books need to translated into local languages, at a cost of say Rs.100,000 per book, it still amounts to Rs.1000 crores. Is that a large sum of money for modern India. Hardly.

What is the loss to India? How much does this reduce India’s growth rate by? Hard numbers – but definitely big numbers.

So why is India persisting with this policy. Because all the high and mighty, finally want their children to ‘escape to the West’, with a good education from India – at the cost of India’s poor. This vested interest makes this policy go around.

And a lot of propaganda.

Backdoor privatization

The Vedanta industrial group is setting up a University in Orissa. From a campus at the new Lavassa township, Oxford is going to start offering courses. These and other represent the quiet backdoor ‘privatization’ of Indian higher education.

Hidden subsidies

Large tracts of lands are being acquired by the Government, and handed over for a pittance to the private sector. Soon, we will have competition between State Sector subsidized English education – and private sector subsidized education.

Who will help Indian languages get back on their feet

While Indian language Universities are struggling – for funding, respect, status, support, foreign Universities, using paper money, backed by the Bretton Woods fraud, will impose their ideas, culture, etc in India.

While the English speaking economic bloc is struggling, India is not focussing on the French, Spanish, Japanese, Chinese Blocs which are large, excellent opportunities.

This can be a way out …

This actually is a good way out. There is a significant demand for English language education – at least currently. This demand can be met by the private sector. In the meantime, misdirected State subsidies can be gainfully used to help Indian language education get back on its feet.

In the not very long run, the state must get out of business of making up the minds of its citizens.

India starts investing in Indian languages?

On the ground, classical language status has meant substantial funds and awards. The solution to such vexed claims and counterclaims may rest in the central government giving up its partisan patronage of Sanskrit and Hindi, and providing the wherewithal for all languages. What languages are classical or not is best left to the scholars. (via Is classical language status meaningless?- Et Debate-Opinion-The Economic Times).

It has taken India 60 years to start with some small investments in Indian languages.

The Indian education system excludes a vast majority of Indians from the higher education system – which is predominantly in English. This puts a premium on English – and discounts Indian languages in the educational sweepstakes. The disadvantaged students who have studied in Indian languages ensure that their children get the ‘advantage’ of English education.

The negative effect this on Indian self esteem is not even a point of discussion here.

End of the road … the bankrupt model

This Indian education model was, till about a 150 years ago, unique in the world. With the highest literacy ratio in the world, and completely privately funded, it set global and historic benchmarks. This model has been buried under a mound of silence – and once in a while you get a glimpse of this.

My first glimpse of this model was through the draft of Parag Tope’s forthcoming book – Operation Red Lotus.

I say without fear of my figures being challenged successfully, that today India is more illiterate than it was fifty or a hundred years ago, and so is Burma, because the British administrators, when they came to India, instead of taking hold of things as they were, began to root them out. They scratched the soil and began to look at the root, and left the root like that, and the beautiful tree perished. (Gandhiji, at Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, Oct 1931 - extracted from Indian Models Of Economy Business And Management By Kanagasabapathi; Page 60).

Gandhiji, in correspondence with Sir Philip Hartog, (chairman of the Auxiliary Committee on Education), laid out the the pre-colonial scenario, which has now been buttressed by research by Dharampal, a Gandhian, in his book, Beautiful Tree, Indian Education in the 18th century.

Sreelatha Menon, seemingly, depends on Tooley’s own PR handouts to write this up. In the entire post in Business Standard, she never makes a mention of Dharampal, whose work is the most authoritative today. Tooley, a (for sometime) IFC-World Bank employee, this research resulted, (funded by the Templeton Foundation) in a book - of course called, The Beautiful Tree.

Between a rock and a hard place

Dharampal’s pioneering work, in 1983, has, not surprisingly, been ignored by the Amartya Sens and The Jean Drezes of the world – all their avid followers in India. Kapil Sibal has been trying to further the colonial British efforts by laying out a red carpet for foreign universities – while tying up Indian institutions into-knots-into-knots-into-knots. The ‘modern’ theory about Indian education goes that all credit for Indian education should go either to the British Colonial Raj or the Christian Missionary Benevolence.

The health care (USA), social welfare (USA), employment benefits (UK), showcase countries (Japan), are running countries into the ground. India has, as yet, not gone down that path. Though, the Indian State has been trying – quite hard.

‘Our constables live worse than animals’ – The Times of India

Drawing SHRC’s attention to the sub-standard dwellings provided to lower-rung cops of the city police, advocate Sushan Kunjuraman, in his petition, stated: “Our policemen live worse than animals and we expect so much from them. A Mumbai police constable lives in a 180-sq-ft room. The housing areas are so small that most of the family sleeps in the corridor or on stairs.”

The petition further states that most constables are overworked. “They are frustrated and rude. How can we expect good policing if we can’t provide them with decent housing,” the advocate asked. (via ‘Our constables live worse than animals’ – The Times of India).

The crime scene in India

India have a low prison population, with a poor police-to-population ratio and a crime rate which is not above the average – in spite of a large civilian gun population.

All the 5 indices (below) create a bias for a lawless Indian society and rampant crime. With these five indices, going against a stable social system, how does current day India manage low-to-average crime rates.

1. India has the lowest per capita prison population in the world. (‘put more criminals behind bars’)
2. India also has the lowest police-to-population ratio in the world. (‘increase police force’)
3. India has the second highest national gun stock in the world. (‘more guns means more crime’)
4. India has the largest number of poor in the world. (‘it is poverty which the root of all crime’)
5. Capital punishment in India is again at low levels. (‘kill enough criminals to instill fear’)

Western thinking and systems of law and order predict that India should have the highest crime rate in the world – which is not true. India has low-to-average crime rate compared to the Rest of the World.

And sub-human living conditions is what police constables get!

The facts behind the story

Historically, trade in India is governed by शुभ लाभ ‘shubh labh’ – and hence Indians have not been major players in drugs proliferation (unlike Japan, the West in which traded Opium in Korea and China) or in slave trade. In modern times, though India is a power in computing industry, India is not a big player in spamming or in software virus.

Khap panchayats seek legal claws – India – NEWS – The Times of India

A over-regulating state is also ineffective state ('Prohibitions' cartoon and ©by Meera Sapra)

Irked at being equated with the Taliban and kangaroo courts, khap panchayats in Haryana are now determined to get some legal sanction.

Soon, they will draw up a set of recommendations for making “suitable” amendments to the Hindu Marriage Act (1955) at the state level so that their rulings become valid under law.

Khaps are traditional area-based community organizations whose rulings have no legal sanction. In keeping with tradition, khap panchayats oppose marriages within the same ‘gotra’ (lineage) and are known to have meted out harsh punishments to “erring” young couples. (via Khap panchayats seek legal claws – India – NEWS – The Times of India).

‘Indian’ NGOs

A NGO /activist publication recently ran an article on Haryana’s khaps – equating the khaps to the Taliban. This was the famous ‘Tehelka’, whose main aim in life is to show how ‘backward’, ‘ignorant’, ‘uncivilized’ the India(ns) are.

Of course, being ‘English speaking ‘activistas’ of the ‘civil society’, nobody can doubt their intentions or message or their ‘intelleigence. Except some like 2ndlook – whose ‘provincial’ mind’ (aka मोटी, देसी और मंद बुद्धि) cannot reconcile the ‘de-regulation’ that these NGOs want and greater regulation that they propose – as they exhale and inhale.

Of course, since they are ‘educated’. ‘modern activistas’ without any axe to grind, they must be right. What is the data that they have? This story was linked to me by an 2ndlook reader (novaaristotle) and is worth reading for an excellent hatchet job.

In conversations with villagers over weeks and months, it became clear that murders decreed by Khap panchayats were common. However, in most cases, a twisted notion of tradition and the fear of social boycott ensure the murders are never reported to the police or the media. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) doesn’t classify or record honour killings and hence has no statistics on them. The lack of figures on murders ordered by Khap panchayats or ‘honour killings’ hinders research and legislation that might address the issue.

Maybe, they should look take a 2ndlook at Indian society – from a law and order point of view.

All quiet on the Indian front …

In more than 1000 Indic books, claiming to record more than 10,000 years of history, there is no instance of any dispute reaching the King. The longest ancient epic in the world, The Mahabharata has no incident where a private dispute reached Yudhisthir (though a mongoose could lecture the King about sacrifices and yagnas). There was never any case of private dispute, recorded in the Ramayana, that reached Ramachandra (though a dhobi could ‘inform’ the king about bazaar talk regarding the Queen Sita). Even a poor Brahman, Kautsa, could reach King Raghu for help in the disbursal of guru-dakshina गुरु-दक्षिणा.

Is it that Indians were ‘saints’ and did not have private disputes? Were they so civilized that they could solve all disputes by talking to each other? Is it that Indian kings were not bothered about delivery of justice!

It gets worse! No prisons …

Modern econometric modelling has an interesting perspective on Indian economy where research shows that for much of the last 1000 years, India has been a significant economic power till the 1900.

China and India, this analysis estimates, for the last 1000 years, accounted for 50% of the world economy. Statistical analyses showed India with a world trade share of 25% for much of the 500 years during 1400-1900. With this prosperity, the most interesting (historical) aspect of the criminal management story is the absence of any surviving mass jails in India prior to colonial India.

Without prisons, just how did pre-colonial India, one of the largest (and most prosperous) populations of the world, deal with crime and criminals?

But then crime rate in India must be really high …

Cut to modern India. With such an inheritance, India has the lowest prison population in the world. How can India have such a low prison population, with a poor police-to-population ratio and a crime rate which is not above the average – in spite of a large civilian gun population.

All the 5 indices (below) create a bias for a lawless Indian society and rampant crime. With these five indices, namely: -

1. Police to population ratio (‘increase police force’)
2. Prison population (‘put more criminals behind bars’)
3. Capital punishment (‘kill enough criminals to instill fear’)
4. Poverty (‘it is poverty which the root of all crime’)
5. Gun ownership (‘more guns means more crime’)

against a stable social system, how does current day India manage low-to-average crime rates. More than 2000 years ago, Megasthenes a Greek traveller to India wrote,

Theft is of very rare occurrence. Megasthenes says that those who were in the camp of Sandrakottos, wherein lay 400,000 men, found that the thefts reported on any one day did not exceed the value of two hundred drachmae, and this among a people who have no written laws

Historically, trade in India is governed by शुभ लाभ ‘shubh labh’ – and hence Indians have not been major players in drugs proliferation (unlike Japan, the West in which traded Opium in Korea and China) or in slave trade.

In modern times, India is not a big player in spamming or in software virus – though a power in computing industry. In August 2008, a hoax story alleged that an Indian hacker, had broken into a credit card database, and sold it to the European underworld. Some ‘experts’ feared that this would spark of a crime wave across Europe.

The Indic model of justice, crime and law

Evidence of a different Indic system goes far back in history – to Lipit Ishtar, Hittite laws, Hammurabi et al. As far back as 4000 years back in history. Indian kings did not deliver justice. It was done at the local level by panchayats पंचायत. Indian justice systems did not rely on imprisonment or executions or the police to control crime!

The answer – the world’s most stable marriage system and the extended family-social structures took care of the wayward. The khaps may have gone overboard in some cases (based on anecdotal evidence) – but the real tehelka is that khaps is the way forward – and not greater Government regulation.

Election funding, India-Pakistan jigsaw mash up

Army Chief Mirza Aslam Baig had advised the ISI in September 1990 that it should give logistic support to transfer of funds from the business community in Karachi to the IJI during the 1988 election, the report stated.

Durrani said in the affidavit that he opened several bank accounts in Karachi, Rawalpindi and Quetta, the daily reported. A man from Karachi called Younus Habib had deposited Rs140 million in one of the accounts in Karachi. Some of the amount had been transferred to the accounts in Quetta and Rawalpindi and the rest to a special fund, according to the report.

According to the affidavit, submitted before the apex court on July 24, 1994, former caretaker PM Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi received Rs 5 million, former Sindh Chief Minister Jam Sadiq Rs 5 million, former Prime minister Muhammad Khan Junejo Rs 2.5 million, Nawaz Sharif Rs 3.5 million, the Jamaat-e-Islami Rs 5 million, and Lt Gen Rafaqat Rs 5.6 million for managing the media campaign. There were many other names on the affidavit. (via Nawaz, others got money from ISI: Pak ex-CJ).

Power, pelf and wealth

Bribes to politicians are neither unique or a monopoly to Pakistan. Funding of power struggles is a part of polity – and is more a problem of the structuring election funding, rather than the moral fibre of politicians.

The Lodis from Afghanistan, petty horse traders, regained India from West Asian invaders. The Lodis could do this, by reducing the cost of raising an army. Being horse traders, they access to low cost horses, essential for a large cavalry-based armed forces of the time.

The Afghan Lodis ended the short 200 year stint in Delhi by the frequently defeated West-Asian invaders. Western historians have painted the Lodis as Islamic conquerors – without differentiating between Indian-Muslim rulers and West Asian Muslim rulers. Afghanistan was last ruled by the rulers of Punjab – Maharaja Ranjit Singh, till about 1830s.

This brings to mind two things.

Political funding in the West

All political systems must necessarily create a system for funding access to power. ‘Modern’ democracies have no systemic channel for funding. Those who follow the ‘system’ – are left behind by those who break it.

The Roosevelt family fortune was built on opium ‘trade’ with China. The Kennedy families fortune was built on initially bootlegging (smuggling alcohol) and Wall Street shenanigans (sold all his shares just before  the Wall Street Crash) and Hollywood capers (Alexander Pantages affaire). In each case, he turned legal – and started a alcoholic-beverage distribution company (Somerset Importers), SEC Chairman, Ambassador to Britain.

He ensured his son, JFK, became the only and ever, Catholic President of the USA. Behind Robert Kennedy’s appointment appointments as SEC head and Ambassador to Britain, was FDR – whose own family fortune was made by marrying rich and opium ‘trade’. Takes one to know one.

The much whispered and well-known funding of political parties by the Reliance Group or the well-oiled PR machine of the Tatas in India are another example.

Funding of Elections

A simple expedient would be to set up a tax-payer funded corpus, for each Parliamentary, State Legislature and local Government constituency – which would get proportionately divided between the top 5-7 candidates, based on votes polled – subject to a ‘clean’ record.

Based on a 500 (central Government), 5000 (state legislature) and 50,000 (local Government) constituencies, and a corpus of Rs.5000 crores each for Central /State /Local Government politicians, to be distributed every five years, would immediately clean up Indian politics and bring in a whole new breed of politicians. The annual cost of such funding will be Rs.3000 crores at current cost – which is far lower than the estimated ‘bribes’ that Indian politicians presumably collect.

To believe that a nation can depend on a constant supply of Tilaks, Boses, Gandhis, Vinoba Bhaves, et al is niether real nor possible.

Can Pakistani business clean up Pakistan

The other thing is the use of Pakistani business interests to clean up Pakistan. Mahbub Al Haq made a famous 22 families in Pakistan speech – which detailed how some 22 families in Pakistan control the Pakistani economy. India can provide a huge market, opportunity and growth to Pakistani businesses.

Is there a coherent anti-terrorism strategy? Is Indian diplomacy engaged with this segment of Pakistan – to find ways to clean up Pakistan. Are Indian banks, consortium-members that fund Pakistani businesses – which are on a “White’ list?

Or Indian diplomacy too busy engaging with the Unca Sam and the West?

The bubble you know

A Chinese bubble has been deflated. Too bad it’s the wrong one. The main Shanghai stock market index has fallen 23% from its peak at the beginning of August, reversing half of the run-up that started early in 2009. That’s a welcome correction, but it doesn’t mean a return to normality, or address the bigger bubble round the corner.

Shares were driven up by a belief in China’s recovery – and by a rush of liquidity. The fall occurred because both were gently dampened. Politicians have warned that economic recovery isn’t a done deal. Monetary authorities drained some liquidity from the market, curbed certain kinds of lending and asked banks to show restraint. (via The bubble you know).

Look ma, "Green shoots"

The long and short

The US economy is going to take some time to recover – a long time. Green shoots versus Brown Weeds is the kind of empty debate which covers the complete lack of visibility on the probable outcome that economists have.

The Japanese have finally decided to sack the LDP – after more than 50 years. The Japanese do not expect any major recovery or growth to happen for the next few years.

Europe is in the boondocks – and is unlikely to come out out of this soon. Their most feasible European option is a greater role for public sector – which the Europeans seem to have embraced in a bear hug.

The BRICs of global economy

Which leaves the BRIC countries. Russia is too dependent on high raw material prices – which need greater demand from the world economy to make a difference. Russia feeds on high growth rates – but cannot be the reason for growth of the global economy.

Ditto for Brazil. Which leaves the world with India and China. Let us first take the Chinese case first.

How ln can this model work

Biting the bullet

Most economists believe that to kill the Beast of Great Recession, the world is left with one, single  magic bullet – China. This being the only bullet in the chamber, makes everyone very nervous, keeps everyone busy, reading Chinese tea leaves with great care.

There is overall consensus that the Chinese growth figures need to be ‘tempered’ – and significantly. The fears seems to be in two areas: -

1. Overstated growth rates.

“The Chinese government is one of the few governments in the world that knows its GDP numbers three years in advance,” Marc Faber told CNBC. Combine this with the other preoccupation where “China is desperately trying to figure out how to withdraw its funds from the dollar without driving it down — not an easy feat.”

2. Understated bad loans by banks.

an astonishing $300 billion vanishing act … the amount of bad debt the top three banks offloaded in the early 2000s. Back then, the People’s Bank created four asset management companies to scrub away the dirt from two decades of policy-driven lending. There was a big catch. The AMCs bought the loans for up to 100 per cent of face value, while recoveries were in the 20-30 per cent range. That means the top three lenders’ Rmb1.2 trillion of AMC bonds, which start to mature this year, are likely to be almost worthless. In theory, the Ministry of Finance is ultimately on the hook, but it is unlikely to make good for the banks. The amount due to all three is roughly one-sixth of China’s fiscal revenues for 2008. (from If in doubt, rub it out BY John Foley /  August 29, 2009, 0:03 IST).

Housing makes up roughly a quarter of investment spending, which is in turn 40% of gross domestic product. The differences between China’s big cities make a bubble harder to spot. But record bids for land are cause for concern, as is falling affordability in big cities. Meanwhile, stagnant residential rents suggest speculation, not demand for somewhere to live, is pushing up house prices. A burst real estate bubble could be fiendishly tricky to clear up. While stock markets clear in a day, property gluts can take months – if they clear at all. ( from The bubble you know by John Foley, Septemeber 1st, 2009, 01:33 IST).

Everything is made in China

Both these severely strain the economic outlook and the banking sector. This may lead to, what the WSJ.COM says, a situation, where “China in the medium term will face just the overcapacity and bad debt that many observers feared already existed.”

But some of these observations and scare stories are exaggerations – and need to be read with the caveat that the dominant Western media portrays all competitors in a similar manner.

What about the Indian economy

That pretty much leaves India as the sole candidate. India cannot absorb the kind of imports that are required to make a difference to the global economy. Or boost exports to the rest of the world – to create consumer led growth. World Bank estimates are that India will grow faster than China by 2010. So, no go!

A plan for Indian businesses

What this means is that India needs to do: -

1. Not bank on any kind of global recovery soon.

2. And island itself – by ensuring that any kind of global mayhem, counter-party risks do not hit Indian banks, corporates, exporters, et al. This may need some strong alliances on export guarantees and credit enhancement by importers for exports from India.

The Indian Government, may not take any major initiative in this regard, but it is the Indian businessmen, who should and must understand this situation – and take the necessary precautions, actions, insurance, guarantees, due diligence, comfort letters – the entire gamut.

Indian Mosaic and the Western Melting Pot

The US Melting Pot

“However, India’s nation-building process differed markedly from the classic 19th-century European model. European nations flattened diversities. We now know that at the time of the French Revolution, only 10-12 % of France spoke French. Over the next 100 years, public schools and conscription armies turned “peasants into Frenchmen”. France simply did not allow diversities to flourish. Everyone came to speak French.

Under Gandhi, India consciously embraced diversities. Even though Gandhi thought that Hindustani — a combination of Hindi and Urdu — might become India’s lingua franca, the idea that India would be a multilingual nation soon took control of his political thinking. And the notion of embracing diversities was quickly extended to religions and castes.

Experience told Gandhi that most Indians had at least two or three identities. They were Bengali and Indian, Tamil and Indian, Hindu and Indian, Muslim and Indian. To push either fragment too far was to go against the requirements of Indian nation-building. Building a classic European style nation was simply not a practical option.

Thus was born the Congress model of politics, which was indistinguishable from nation-building. Today, we call this the “mosaic” model of nationalism, as opposed to the “melting pot” model. The latter term is often used for the US, but recent scholarship makes it clear that France is the biggest melting pot in the world.” (via No place for extremes in the Indian mosaic – Special Report – Sunday TOI – NEWS – The Times of India).

Ashutosh Varshney, in the article linked above, makes the distinction between ‘mosaic’ and ‘melting pot’ very well. Looking deeper, one, however needs to qualify his thesis.

Lowest diversity vs.Biggest talk

The West today has the lowest levels of ethnic, linguistic and religious diversity – and persecutes whatever little is left, like the Roma Gypsies for example. Would critics like to mention any other country, where such a large minority Muslim population, has greater freedom and opportunity, than in India? Would you like to suggest France instead?

The US melting pot

The language conundrum

India, has 15 official languages.

No other countries even had the courage to think of that. Various US state governments outlawed all languages – except English.

It was only in 1923, was this finally set aside after the matter reached the US Supreme Court (read Meyer vs Nebraska). The USA gathered some courage to start timidly with more than English only after seeing India’s success with 15 languages. Switzerland has only four. Sri Lanka’s Sinhalas do not want to accept Sri Lankan Tamils as full and equal citizens – hence the 20 year old civil war.

In the thrall of One

The Western concept of nation building requires the cornerstones of Desert Bloc – One God, One Book, One Holy Day, One Prophet (Messiah), One Race, One People, One Country, One Authority, One Law, One Currency, One Set of Festivals. This tyranny of the ‘One’ is the root of most problems in the world. From this ‘Oneness’, we get the ‘One’ Currency, ‘One’ Language logic  – a fallacious syllogism. Once you accept ‘One’, you will accept all others.

Before finished saying M

While Ashutosh Varshney makes the distinction between ‘mosaic’ and ‘melting pot’ very well, he misses the beat, completely, by crediting Gandhiji for this Indic construct! When he says, “Under Gandhi, India consciously embraced diversities” is he implying that before Gandhiji, India was a mono-bloc society. Was it under the thrall of ‘One’? Would Gandhiji have become a Mahatma in India, if tried the ‘melting pot’ strategy?

I think not!

He would have been rejected, rubbished and trashed before he could have said M – of mosaic, melting pot or Mahatma.

Manick Sarkar - does magic with cartoons also

Sunita Narain proposes more Government

Dilbert knows all ...

we bought samples of leading brands available in the market and analysed content for the toxin. What we found was staggeringly high levels of lead in virtually all samples we checked. India does not have a mandatory standard for regulating lead in paints. We only have a voluntary code laid down by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), which specifies that lead content should be 1,000 parts per million (ppm). Our tests found that the biggest and best companies had lead levels 180 times the voluntary standard.

But we were not surprised, as I said. After all, the government has not set standards to phase out lead in this daily-use product. Something most governments had done some 20 years ago. In the US, lead had been termed the number one environmental threat to the health of children. But it was a non-issue for the industry in India. We were angry at this indifference and decided to write to all major paint companies asking them about their plans to phase out lead. We expected little response. But this time we were really surprised.

Two of the major companies — Asian Paints and Nerolac — wrote back saying that they were planning to get rid of lead. They promised that this would happen soon, within a few months. So, instead of immediately releasing our report, we thought we should wait: To recheck and to validate if the companies kept the promise they had made to us. Some months later we went to the market and picked samples of the same companies.

Our analysis found a change. Of the big five, three companies had no lead in their product. Asian Paints and Nerolac had indeed cleaned up. Berger and Shalimar still had lead in the samples we tested. Both are big companies and neither have any excuses. The fact is that companies have the technology to phase out lead. (via Sunita Narain: New coat of paint).

Failed agency, failed agenda, failed model

Much as I like Sunita Narain’s work, her reading of this situation is wrong.

Unlike her fault-finding, this was good news. For three reasons.

1. Three out of the five biggest companies voluntarily agreed and reduced lead content – at a significant cost to their own bottom-lines. Without a sword over their head or legal threats hanging over them. Just a gentle pointer did the trick. That is good news. This is possibly why Indians trust their companies more than the Rest of the World.

2. The Government has voluntary codes – which are NOT enforced. Unlike the US. We should do more of this – and not less, Ms.Sunita Narain. Bigger Government, with greater enforcement agenda is a bad idea – and no good can ever come out of it.

EPA does nothing about environment and justice does nothing to do with justice

For you to call for greater Government activism is simply more bad news. The American model is faulty, expensive and prone to abuse. Why copy a failed model?

3. Ms.Narain – Maybe, your organization can franchise a ‘प’ (Prakriti) logo – for all companies that voluntarily adhere to the highest global standards. And that will again be good news.

Let us take away the regulatory load (which will soon become overload) from the Government and move towards self-regulation.

I think it is time you took a 2ndlook.

Climate change – How India is falling for propaganda

I have been surprised by the number of reasonable Indians who have come to accept the proposition, advanced by equally reasonable but perhaps nationalistically-motivated Americans, that the acceptance of internationally-mandated restrictions on carbon emissions by India is in its own national interest. Some have even come to argue that India should actively seek a climate change treaty at the Copenhagen conference in December 2009.

If the big and largely rich emitters of today were to take mitigation in the immediate future seriously, they could achieve emission cuts commensurate with the recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) without denying the poor in India (and Africa) the prospects of a humane existence. With abject poverty eliminated and electricity and water provided to all, India could join the mitigation effort by 2040. (via India and climate change talks).

Acquisitive Indian companies making US nervous?

What if

The entire global warming debate is just a facade to keep up demand for oil from India and China. The opposition to coal fired power plants is to stop India and China from reducing the growth in oil consumption.

After all practically all of British GDP today is declining North Sea oil and British Petroleum. Apart from Chinese money, the other source of liquidity, which keeps the US afloat is petro-dollars. And, remember, US future is so closely linked to Arctic oil. If India and China were to reduce their reliance on oil, leading to a price collapse, the biggest losers will be the Anglo Saxon bloc.

Makes one think!

India’s pharma exports

Three things…

First, many of the regulatory bodies are actually a US-Euro Club – to fool the world, with token actions and steps to demonstrate inclusion and fairness to the developing world.

And second, these token actions divert the attention of the developing world. For instance, World Bank list of banned entities were significantly, from two sectors - Software and Pharma. These are the two sectors where the US still has a lead – and the Indians are its biggest challengers. Generic pharma firms from India have become world beaters - and the Indian software companies have built up US$50 billion a year business, in less than 10 years. These 50 billion dollars have come out of (arguably) US pockets.

At least, the actions against Wipro and Nestor Pharma were pathetic excuses to ban a business – and no third party arbiter will uphold these actions.

Third, on January 9, Standard & Poor’s announced that Greece, Spain and Ireland were on review for a possible downgrade, indicating that a Euro-zone country could default. The cost of the US bailout is likely to exceed US$3 trillion. Current US budget deficit is likely to break all records and estimates.

Not so long ago …

In 1999, an employee of an auto-components manufacturer, Autolite, was arrested in France for trademarks and copyright infringement – based on a complaint by the car manufacturer PSA Puegeot Citroen. The French police, on similar complaints, arrested two other nationals, a Belgian and a Taiwanese woman also.

The Belgian was of course granted bail – and the Indian and the Taiwanese were denied bail - ‘The lawyers representing the Indian businessman offerred to deposit his passport and the sum of 100,000 French Francs claimed by Peugeot in the custody of the court as bailbond, pending the trial of the case on November 12′.

French court procedures took nearly 1 month and the Indian executive was finally granted bail after being in prison for 1 month. After two years of appeals and expensive litigation, the complaint was found to be without any merit – and dismissed.

When the North Pole greens over

More recently …

A shipment of medicines destined for Brazil, from India, was detained at Rotterdam. The Dutch Customs used a complaint from a local Dutch company, to detain this shipment, based on local patent laws. After a few months of ‘negotiations’, the shipment was sent back to India. An expert writes, what

‘EU is doing is using Council Regulation (EC) No. 1383/2003 to impound drugs that are suspected of violating patents registered in member-countries even if these are simply in transit. The regulations permit customs to hold these goods for a minimum of 10 working days while informing the patent holder of the seizure. The patent holder then applies to a civil court to initiate legal proceedings in order to prove that infringement has taken place.’

Whats the Quicktake

These seem like offensive actions from the EU and the US – to undermine their competitors and to bolster Euro-US businesses. It makes me doubt the Satyam saga. To carry the conspiracy theory thread forward, was there a Merrill Lynch-Ramlinga Raju ‘deal’?

'demmed' Indian cows

Modern day protectionism, huh?

This also furthers the importance of having non-Western bodies, which are sponsored by the Third World, which will regulate and govern international laws. To depend on the West, is to further dig the hole that the Third World finds itself in.

And in case you forget, remember that for some time Indian cows were blamed for global warming!

Some want the British Raj back …

When empires wane, they live on, as the political scientist David Singh Grewal has argued, by embedding their values, systems and standards in a presumptive heir, as ancient Greece did through Rome and as Britain has done through the United States. Should it falter in due course, might America achieve the same through India — the preservation at least of the American idea and way of life?

That is implied in a cherished vision here — that if India does become as dynamic and powerful as China, then democracy, multiculturalism and the rule of law will continue to have a forceful champion, with or without America. (via India Has a Soft Spot for Bush – NYTimes.com).

Who did this

The first thing that I did after reading this post was to read the name of the author. To my horror, it was one Anand Giridhardas (AG). I wonder what kind of education AG has had. Even if it was a lop-sided, ‘Anglo-Saxon is best’ kinda-American education, did he ever try and get his bearings right? Is this what his history lessons were?

The two kinds of NRIs ...

I don’t know which part of the world AG comes from – but most NRIs, I know are rather touchy about their children getting to know something about India. One NRI father, I know, has decided that his daughter will be self taught – and not learn history, as it is taught in American schools. But AG does not seem to have had that advantage.

Tracing the source of this nullah

I would be skeptical, of taking any kind of lessons (history or otherwise) from any who goes by the name of David Singh Grewal. The name itself is evidence of a badly mixed up  mind – which in bambaiyya language is called maraa-maree – a concoction of some fresh juices that cover up some stale or leftover juices. AG’s guru, David (I am assuming, it is the same David Singh Grewal) says in another place

To be part of a particular global network, you have to adopt the underlying standard. This might mean learning to speak English, … or dressing in a suit and tie for a business meeting. If you do these things already – or if you are willing and able to change your behaviour now – the world may very well look flat. But if you don’t or can’t, you won’t see a level playing field at all; you’ll see distant fields on which others play. (ellipsis mine).

I am impressed. Such advice was earlier given free. But Bhai Dave ( In case he doesn’t want me to call him Bhai, I can call him Unlce Tom) seems to be making a living by charging money for handing out this maraa-maree – and couching it in good English and jargon. Such an activity is covered in the Indian Penal Code under Article 420!

Desi reactions to Western 'perceptions'

The danger of taking lessons from any Punjabi /Saradarji who goes by the name of David is that they will never realize that India will make a bad clone. Many centuries ago, a few foreign rulers  (the Khiljis and Tughlaks) tried making India into a Persian-Turkic clone. They failed – miserably. Then the English East India Comapny tried – and it got them the War of 1857. Queen Victoria tried – and it got her 90 years of violence, dharnas, strikes, et al.

All in all – a bad idea.

Indian or an American

I have a question.

Is this the kind of wish that AG has for India (or any other country)? To be an Anglo-American clone?

I am unsure about quality of AG’s ideas or AG’s motivations. But he sure has used his ‘Indian-ness’ to get himself on a gravy train. All the while, downgrading the very gravy train that he is riding on.

Fortunately, for us, AGs wishes are irrelevant.

Advice … suggestions …

AG – If you are an ‘American’, I have a word of advice! Keep your Anglo-American-ness to yourself. We, in India don’t wish to become a clone – any one’s!

And if you count yourself as an Indian (never mind which passport you carry), you should press the “Empty Trash” button in your Mindbox. You will find that button in the Menu-> Files-> Settings-> Propaganda-> Received Trash-> Delete-> Empty Trash.

Caveat

This may look simple, but you have to do these delete actions, file by file. In some cases, these files have been received as virus files. These may have corrupted the Registry and finding the Rootkit is essential. In case the Rootkit itself is not deleted, it will keep creating new and freshly corrupted files. Of course, you have the option of formatting your hard disk! Any which way …

AG, you have a problem!