Can I ever live this down …

Was Manmohan Singh badly advised. At that level, unlikely.

With the collapse of Soviet Union, the US became the single global power. With that position came adulation from client states. | A 1992 cartoon By David Horsey | Published December 27, 2011 | Click for image.

Looking back

Over the last 65 years, Indian foreign policy has been a remarkable record in response to global realities.

Broadly Indian foreign policy has gone through 3 different phases, based on the shifting situations and power balances. Remarkably independent, it has been attacked usually without complete understanding.

But even to the most accommodating analyst, this incident has left most people puzzled.

Manmohan Singh leads the largest democracy on earth. But India’s prime minister is gentle of manner and speaks in whispers. One struggles to imagine him professing love without shyness to his own wife. And so it meant something when he recently laid the L-word on a little-loved man: George W. Bush.

“This may be my last visit to you during your presidency,” Mr. Singh told Mr. Bush in Washington in September, “and let me say, Thank you very much. The people of India deeply love you.”

Laura Bush is not alone, after all. (via India Has a Soft Spot for Bush – NYTimes.com).

At such levels, leaders are well-advised – and are unlikely to behave like loose cannons. One day, I would like to understand this ‘incident’ better.

Till then …

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Commentary on Indian Foreign Policy

Why are India’s Foreign Policy analysts producing raddi*. Do they realize that paper is produced after cutting down a lot of trees.

A un-appetizing masala-mix of bias, prejudice, ignorance. Maybe, even a sense of inferiority. | Cartoon by Sandeep Adharyu; on 19 December, 2010; source and courtesy - cartoonistsandeep.com. | Click for larger image.

Indian Foreign Office is remarkably risk-averse and conservative. With honourable exceptions, it spends much of its time thinking up reasons and excuses to not take a particular step, not change direction, not go down a path that seems obvious to everybody else but the ministry of external affairs (MEA). (via Pacific partners | The Asian Age).

Is a 2ndlook needed

Malik-bhai, even a cursory examination of India’s Foreign policy establishment will show that your statement is based on ignorance – if not on prejudice and bias.

The thinnest diplomatic corps

For one, you should know, being a foreign policy maven, that the IFS is the thinnest diplomatic corps for any G20 country. Compared to less than 1,000 IFS diplomats that an ascendant India has, declining Britain has a diplomatic crops that numbers 15,000.

Secondly, if you do look at the three different foreign policy regimes (what 2ndlook calls FP-One, FP2 & FP-III to remember easily) that India’s external relations apparatus has made in the last 60 years, you will appreciate that it is second to none in the world.

One hand clapping

The one other thing, that you will appreciate is that relationships are based on reciprocity. The fact that India may find it advantageous, beneficial, useful, right, et al, does not mean that we will have a positive relationship with any other government. Equally, the other government must see some advantage and benefit.

At best India can take an initiative – but there must be response from the other side. If not equal or proportional, at least symbolic.

Part of the problem

Malik-bhai your carping about ‘lost opportunities’, especially with Western nations is part of the problem.

Not a solution – or even any direction.

*PS – raddi in Hindi means waste paper – usually sold away to recyclers on a per kg basis.

The table below presents a matrix to map outcomes, objectives, alliances and policies that Indian foreign policy has used in the last 60 years. As can be seen, Indian FP-One, FP2 and FP-III were rooted in the global realities of that time – and based on Indian needs and requirements of that time.

	FP-One (1950-1970)	FP2 (1970-2000)	FP-III (2000-Now)
Leverage	Nehru’s charisma	Indo-Soviet Alliance	Indian economic power
Key Achievements	Decolonization Third World dialogue India heard at world forums	Defence production gathers steam Soviet technology used for oil exploration 1971 Bangladesh War	FP not influenced by armament purchases Armament vendors instead of alliances Un-committed to any super-power
Key Failures	Defence unpreparedness Relationship with neighbours deteriorate Tibet lost to China UN interventions	Foreign policy influenced by Soviet line Economic interests neglected Limited access to Western technology, economy, finance	China, Pakistan relations not stable Over engagement with West Global initiatives (like NAM) impaired.
Key Features	Indian interests secondary Global situation in focus No Super-power tilt	Indo-Soviet alliance stitched NAM acquires traction Indian interests acquire importance Super-power interventions rejected.	Indian interests paramount FP-III depends less on Super-power coat-tails Issue based engagement with P5
Key Persona	JL Nehru	Indira Gandhi AB Vajpayee in Janata Party govt (1977-1979). Rajiv Gandhi	AB Vajpayee Manmohan Singh
Key events	Nehru-Eisenhower dynamics Hungarian Uprising Suez Crisis	1971 Bangladesh War Pokhran Atomic blast MNCs brought to heel; IBM, Coke thrown out	Indo-US Nuclear deal India Vietnam alliance in South China Sea G20 inclusion

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26/11 – The Maldives connection

Is it true that the Maldives is looking for radars from India to improve its coastal security?
Yes, we would like to safeguard our fishing grounds and prevent terrorist attacks.
Meaning?
Any terrorist attack through the underbelly of India, that is peninsular India, would have to go through Maldivian waters. We will be the first to see what is happening. For example, if we had this equipment, we would have been much more vigilant about what was going to happen in the Mumbai attacks…that is why it is essential to safeguard Maldives’ territorial waters and defend our coastline.
Is it true that the Maldives has a serious issue with Islamic fundamentalists?
Yes, we have a serious issue with Islamist radicals, we know that many are being trained by the Al Qaeda in the northern reaches of Pakistan.
How do you know?
Because several Maldivians have been arrested by Pakistani authorities after they crossed into Pakistan from India. The recruitment of Islamist radicals takes place in the Maldives and their channel of movement is all the way up to Pakistan.
Are you saying that the Maldivians are being trained by the Al Qaeda in Pakistan, in Waziristan?
Yes, they are getting trained there by the Al Qaeda to fight the war in Afghanistan.
You talked about the Mumbai attacks and of being more vigilant about your territorial waters…what did you mean by that?
I believe that the identity of all the dead terrorists in the Mumbai attacks has not been broken down into nationalities. I feel there is a Maldivian connection to the Mumbai attacks.
In what way?
Well, we have information from the families of terrorists who are still in the Maldives about this. (‘There is a Maldivian link to 26/11′; Q&A: Mohamed Nasheed, the president of the Maldives
Jyoti Malhotra / New Delhi October 25, 2009, 0:00 IST http://is.gd/kpoeO)

Another story some 15 months later.

a Maldivian connection to the Mumbai attack. One, possibly two, of the ten terrorists who spew mayhem was from the Maldives. In its zeal to nail Pakistan, did India ignore leads on the mysterious Maldivian.

Forty-eight hours before 26/11, a family in the Maldives got a phone call. A familiar voice said, “I have good news for you.” It was their son, calling from Pakistan. He said he was “bound for heaven… in two days’ time.”
The full import of his words did not dawn on the family then. But they got a vague scent of his looming participation in something sinister—which turned out to be the terror attack in Mumbai on November 26, 2008. The family later claimed that he was among the nine slain terrorists.
Investigations by THE WEEK revealed that the claim had made the Maldivian government institute an “in-house” investigation. But the probe hit a stonewall thanks to India’s lack of interest in exploring any latent Maldivian links in 26/11 (This report by Anupam Dasgupta, Principal Correspondent appears in the issue of THE WEEK; Jan. 16 – http://is.gd/kpolF )

Indian foreign policy, a hostage to the The Pakistan Fixation, cannot see a problem, after they are told. Mohammed Nasheed gave this interview last year.