A sputtering economy with a strong yuan is not the same China anymore. How should India deal with a hesitant China.
- On China by Henry Kissinger: review (telegraph.co.uk)
- Mao Zedong (time.com)
- The Fundamental Difference Between The Soviet Union And China (businessinsider.com)
- Liberalism under attack in China: Boundlessly loyal to the great monster (economist.com)
- A Diplomat Looks East (online.wsj.com)
- WATCH: After Being Followed Around By Chinese Government Agents, This Reporter Confronts Them And All Hell Breaks Loose (businessinsider.com)
- China Tops India as Asian Economy Best Placed For Growth (businessweek.com)
- SocGen: “The China Domino Has Fallen!”, Big-Time Inflation Coming All Around The World (businessinsider.com)
- At China’s New Museum, History Toes Party Line (nytimes.com)
- Sex, Drugs and Mao Zedong (time.com)
- Kissinger fails to answer key question – Jasper Becker (chinaherald.net)
- On China by Henry Kissinger – review (guardian.co.uk)
- Dr. K’s Rx for China (thedailybeast.com)
- The China syndrome (boston.com)
- Henry Kissinger on China (nytimes.com)
- America and China: No go (economist.com)
United States is being subjected to an old-fashioned protection racket by Pakistan: pay up or things could go bad for you. Those making money out of extortion and blackmail always come back for more. It’s a measure of the US’s waning global strength that it seems to have no option other than to keep paying.US is paying for Pak protection racket | By SHAUN GREGORY |
Jinnah held the entire sub-continent to ransom. After 200 conflicts in 150 years, as the British with their backs to the wall, were walking away, Jinnah became a spoiler. The hour of triumph turned into moment of tragedy. A country born out of this blackmail, has now formalized blackmail as State Policy.
NATO, for the first time, officially claimed a role in the Arctic, when Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told member-states to sort out their differences within the alliance so that it could move on to set up “military activity in the region.”
“Clearly, the High North is a region that is of strategic interest to the Alliance,” he said at a NATO seminar in Reykjavik, Iceland, in January 2009.
Since then, NATO has held several major war games focussing on the Arctic region. In March this year, 14,000 NATO troops took part in the “Cold Response 2010” military exercise held in Norway under a patently provocative legend: the alliance came to the defence of a fictitious small democratic state, Midland, whose oilfield is claimed by a big undemocratic state, Nordland. In August, Canada hosted its largest yet drill in the Arctic, Operation Nanook 2010, in which the U.S. and Denmark took part for the first time.
Russia registered its firm opposition to the NATO foray, with President Dmitry Medvedev saying the region would be best without NATO. “Russia is keeping a close eye on this activity,” he said in September. “The Arctic can manage fine without NATO.” The western media portrayed the NATO build-up in the region as a reaction to Russia’s “aggressive” assertiveness, citing the resumption of Arctic Ocean patrols by Russian warships and long-range bombers and the planting of a Russian flag in the North Pole seabed three years ago.
It is conveniently forgotten that the U.S. Navy and Air Force have not stopped Arctic patrolling for a single day since the end of the Cold War. Russia, on the other hand, drastically scaled back its presence in the region after the break-up of the Soviet Union. It cut most of its Northern Fleet warships, dismantled air defences along its Arctic coast and saw its other military infrastructure in the region fall into decay.
The Arctic has enormous strategic value for Russia. Its nuclear submarine fleet is based in the Kola Peninsula. Russia’s land territory beyond the Arctic Circle is almost the size of India — 3.1 million sq km. It accounts for 80 per cent of the country’s natural gas production, 60 per cent of oil, and the bulk of rare and precious metals. By 2030, Russia’s Arctic shelf, which measures 4 million sq km, is expected to yield 30 million tonnes of oil and 130 billion cubic metres of gas. If Russia’s claim for a 350-mile EEZ is granted, it will add another 1.2 million sq km to its possessions.
A strategy paper Mr. Medvedev signed in 2008 said the polar region would become Russia’s “main strategic resource base” by 2020. Russia has devised a multivector strategy to achieve this goal. First, it works to restore its military capability in the region to ward off potential threats. Russia is building a new class of nuclear submarines, Borei (Northern Wind) that will be armed with a new long-range missile, Bulava. Navy Chief Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky said recently he had also drawn up a plan to deploy warships in Russia’s Arctic ports to protect polar sea routes. (via The Arctic’s strategic value for Russia By Vladimir Radyuhin.)
Thin ice …
Some sixteen months ago, 2ndlook speculated that West’s redemption may come from oil – from the Arctic. With receding Arctic ice-caps, the West may find itself sitting on large oil reserves. Production from these discoveries may take 10-25 years – climate permitting.
Climate change, I don’t believe in. How long will these weather patterns persist? The West is skating on thin ice – but then what can they do. Slavery is not an option – not for another 50-100 years at least. Dig mother earth, is the second and only option they have believed in.
For the last 3000 years at least.
- Russia and Norway resolve Arctic border dispute (guardian.co.uk)
- Russia, Canada in rivalry over Arctic resources (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- Russia, Canada make competing claims to Arctic resources (foxnews.com)
- Russia to boost Arctic research (blogs.nature.com)
- Senior Nato commander warns of potential conflict over Arctic resources (guardian.co.uk)
- Russia, Canada in rivalry over Arctic resources (ctv.ca)
- Russia, Canada and Denmark to file Arctic claims to UN (theglobeandmail.com)
- Canada, Russia expect to win Arctic claims at UN (cbc.ca)
- Coast Guard: Russia makes inroads in Arctic, and we should, too (chron.com)
- Military forces ‘will keep the Arctic safe’ (telegraph.co.uk)
India and Honest Brokers
There is this Buddhist Jataka story which we have all heard.
Two cats go to a monkey for help in dividing some eatable equally. End result – the monkey gets everything. The cats, nothing. ‘Honest’ brokers are the monkey which leaves nothing for the cats.
Hillary Clinton assured a nervous gathering of Foreign Policy analysts that the world is counting on the USA today as it has in the past. When old adversaries need an honest broker or fundamental freedoms need a champion, people turn to us. When the earth shakes or rivers overflow their banks, when pandemics rage or simmering tensions burst into violence, the world looks to us. (via Remarks on United States Foreign Policy).
In real life
What is left of Pakistan after US finished with brokering Pakistan’s future? After the West carved up the Ottoman Empire, and divided the Turkish possessions among their puppets, what is left of the Middle East? With oil, Big Oil, oil politics, oil-dollar, oil prices at stake, can the US be a honest broker.
Tell that to the birds.
Can there be a ‘honest’ broker?
This idea that there cannot be ‘honest’ brokers, made Buddhism so popular all over the world. Not pretty statues and musical chants. In the last 200 years, भारत-तंत्र Bharat-tantra has gone into regression. But, in this period, the world has also learnt more about the limitations of the Desert Bloc ideology.
People get ready!
- Foreign Policy: Clinton’s Wake Up Call On Mexico (npr.org)
- United States is ‘best hope’ in a troubled world: Clinton (alternet.org)
- The Hill Poll: Most voters say Arab unrest bodes ill for the US – The Hill (news.google.com)
- A Salient Fact About US-Israeli Relations (Several Billion, in Fact) (outsidethebeltway.com)
- Barack Obama agrees to form joint national security body with UK (guardian.co.uk)
- A call for change – Obama has ‘failed,’ Pawlenty says (politico.com)
An Indian problem
Now one of the problems of India, having English as an important language, is the amount of swill, garbage and propaganda that we are subjected to.
In spite of being less than anybody, British media can be pretty biased.
One example was a post by Ian Campbell on Japan’s economic problems. He says,
Japan has … has the worst debt to GDP ratio among major economies … But the interest yield on Japanese government bonds is … not much more than 1 per cent, so the debt is not yet so problematic – and might not seem an obstacle to still more spending. … In just five years, even assuming the economy grows, debt might climb to 230 per cent of GDP … the hideously large debt would finally drive the fiscal deficit far higher and become intolerable.
Japan’s only route then would be drastic fiscal reform or, more probably, huge resort to the printing press, as Latin America did in the old days and Zimbabwe in more recent times. (via Nokia’s billion-dollar man).
Sad Brits …
Campbell, a British journalist, compares Japan with Latin American and African Governments who have printed a lot of money.
But surely he knows that Western Governments – under the leadership of Ben Bernanke printed much more than Africa and Lat-Am could and did! Why is Campbell not talking of British, European and American printing presses?
Is there a racial smell and smear somewhere? Did I hear him say ‘These irresponsible Blacks, Latinas, Browns, Yellows …’
Now Japan’s problems are minor – because they have solid, well run, high tech companies, whose products are in demand all over the world.
Off their peaks, these Japanese firms still have mean clout in business world. Japanese interest rates being so low will not change Governmental economics by much. So, why compare Japan with Latin America or Zimbabwe?
Of course, you cannot compare Japan to Spain – where prostitution is a national industry. Or Ireland, or Greece, which have lived on handouts for the last 100 years.
Maybe you should look at British debt my dear sir!
Is it wishful thinking Mr.Campbell? Balanced your judgment is not. Or is it just plain malarkey? Methinks, it is ‘White’ noise!
Ian Campbell, who has “recently returned to the UK, where he is writing a book on rural Mexico.” could utilize his time much better writing about rural Britain, which depends on huge subsidies from a nation groaning under 500% Gross-National-Debt (GND-that is Govt.+Corporate+household).
Now British GND (no hindi puns intended) is a much-more-hideous. Than Japanese at 500%. We both know that British exports are going nowhere!
Let us look at British economy
First the biggest sector of British corporate sector is about digging, extracting and selling natural resources.
A historical legacy – with little value-addition. Royal Dutch Shell, BP, North Sea Oil, XStrata, Anglo American, Rio Tinto Group, BHP Billiton, BG Group, National Grid, Scottish and Southern Energy, Centrica. That is 10 of the top 30 British companies. These companies mostly have their assets abroad – and if push comes to shove, you know these companies will go where their bread is buttered.
The second leg on which British industry stands today is cracked leg of banking and insurance – HSBC, HBOS, RBS, Lloyd’s TSB, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Aviva and Prudential. The British part of the business of these 8 financial firms is in mess. The international business is subsidizing the British business. How long do you think this will last?
The third wobbly leg is pharmaceuticals made up of two companies. Glaxo-Smithkline-and Astra Zeneca. Both are in doldrums due to competition from generic Indian companies – and may look good to beery British journalists boozed in a pub. Now these are the three legs of British economy. We know that three legged stools are always prone to topple over.
That was lesson No.1 for you Campbell.
Lallu has a few things to say here
Lesson No.2 is what our colourful former Railway Minister said, “इस हमाम में सब नंगे हैं” (meaning “everyone in this bathhouse is naked”).
No offense to colour black, but then black pots must not call yellow kettles names.
It is plain bad journalism!
- Our Government Is Now So Huge That It’s Choking The Private Sector (businessinsider.com)
- Dollar hits 15-year low vs yen, jumps vs euro (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- China Buys More Japanese Debt Than Ever Before (businessinsider.com)
Resource-scarce economies, such as China, India, Japan and South Korea, have long been heavily dependent on oil from the Middle East, giving producers there the upper hand in pricing. The surcharge, known as the “Asian premium,” has averaged about $1.20 a barrel since 1988.
Now, the tables are turning, handing an advantage to the region’s fast-growing countries in the form of relatively less expensive energy.
In March, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, sold its Arab Light crude to Asia for $6.37 less per barrel than it charged European buyers … Kuwait and Iraq also followed suit … though official statistics aren’t yet available.
The latest flip in prices has led many analysts to conclude that fundamental changes in the global oil trade will soon eliminate the Asian premium for good, eliminating a drag on the region’s economy. In 2008, for example, Asian customers bought about 14 million barrels of oil a day from the Middle East, according to BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The premium averaged $8.08 a barrel that year, amounting to about $41 billion. (via Economic Clout Earns Asia an Oil Discount – WSJ.com).
One by one, each Asian country has been able to pull itself out colonial cess-pit that seemed bottomless at one point of time. Barring a few like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, some Central Asian republics, Asia is truly on its way out of the 20th century misery.
There are two economic miracles. One we have seen.
It is a miracle that Asia has been able to come out of its poverty pit, where it found itself in the 20th century – especially after WW2.
The greater miracle will be when Europe and Middle East find a way to rebuild their economic model – without the Asian premium!
And that is the miracle we may not see!
To protect themselves against disruptions in crude oil supplies, India, Japan, China, South Korea and the US will meet in June in Seoul to work on a joint response mechanism based on their combined strategic crude oil reserves. The five nations together account for 44% of global demand.Strategic crude oil reserves are a country’s answer to counter short-term supply disruptions. They are state-funded and meant to tackle emergency situations. (via India, US and China consider joint strategic crude oil response – Money Matters – livemint.com).
A rather sudden development – and not widely reported, at that. Much trawling over the internet could not find any other reports on this meeting – except this one report in Livemint, linked above. It appears that this meeting in Seoul, is a follow-on meeting to the one that China proposed and hosted in 2006.
Energy security has long been an issue with China – which seems to have influenced its foreign policy strongly. Korea has long been working on energy security with Middle East producers. India has worked on some oil storage plans with foreign investments.
Considering the low-output since the China confab, nearly four years ago, in the short run, there is little scope for any tangible outcome from the Seoul conclave. Developments if any, will only be long-term in nature – and will need significant co-ordination in oil exploration, shipping, storage, and transportation. But what it does, is establish an Asian forum for Asia’s big economies to coördinate policy.
Not a bad idea at all.
This meeting has quite some background. With the changing power equations in Asia, Korea finds itself in a difficult situation. For historical reasons, they cannot see themselves being very close to Japan (bad memories of Japanese occupation) or China (China’s support for North Korea, hegemonic designs of China, etc.).
On the other hand, the Korean experience in India has been positive. Korean brands like Hyundai, Samsung and LG have done exceedingly well in India, Unlike Chinese brands, Korean products have been received warmly by Indians. Indian prowess in design, R&D, software, also complement Korean manufacturing, global scales and plans. Korea and India have signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in August, 2009.
In India, Korea is seen as a rare, non-threatening, non-exploitative industrial-economy player.
It was at Copenhagen, that for the first time, Europe realized that they no longer have the inside track with the USA. At least Obama’s administration. The ‘special relationship’ that swells the British chest has been under some strain – for some time now. The US engagement with Asia makes some sense – as it is Asia which has extended nearly US$3-4 trillion in credit, growth opportunities to the US. Europe increasingly seems more like a liability – and a truculent competitor.
The US presumably knows which side of their bread is buttered.
Post-Copenhagen, a grateful China has been effusive towards India – at least temporarily. The Chinese press did a roundel for 60 years of India-China diplomatic relationship. With this we have a round-up of the entire scenario. The sentiment and motivation are thick enough to cut with even a blunt knife.
This time around.
Beijing let the yuan rise 21 percent against the U.S. dollar between July 2005 and July 2008 before effectively repegging the currency, also called the renminbi, near 6.83 to the dollar to help the economy through the financial crisis.
The United States’ deficit in trade with China fell to $227 billion in 2009 from a record $268 billion in 2008,. but the Obama administration is keen to lift exports and employment.
Wu Xiaoling, a Chinese lawmaker and former central bank vice governor quoted by the People’s Daily international edition, said the root of the problem was not a cheap yuan, but the relatively low cost of labor and resources in China.
“That people feel the renminbi is undervalued is in fact because many price factors in China, including resources and labor, have not reached international levels,” she said. (via China economist sees “room for talk” on currency row; Updated on Monday, April 05, 2010, 20:40)
You scratch … I scratch
An experienced US stalks China, waiting behind high walls of US$2500 billion foreign exchange reserves. There will be much too and fro. Much will said and retracted. Much will showbiz. In the end, it may be as,
Li Daokui, another new member of the advisory body, said China should scrap its peg to the dollar before September.
“One way of relieving pressures on the renminbi exchange rate is to make an adjustment on China’s own initiative,” Li, an economist at Tsinghua University, was quoted by Caijing magazine as saying.
Li singled out September as a deadline so that political debate over the yuan does not boil over in the run-up to U.S. mid-term elections in November.
In a cover story, Caijing cited unidentified sources as saying that Beijing was studying the option of dropping the yuan’s peg as soon as next month.
Curiouser and curiouser, said the Cat to Alice.
With just about two months left before the expected election date of May 6, the outcome is impossible to predict. A Tory majority, a minority Labour government, or a split Parliament with the third-party Liberal Democrats holding the swing votes are all viable scenarios. The markets have a jittery season ahead of them. (via In Britain, a Rout Turns into a Race – BusinessWeek).
At the edge of the precipice!
Last time around, in the stagflation of 1970s, as the low-exchange rates era in Europe ended, in the post oil-shock world of 1973, Britain inched to the edge of precipice of becoming a Third World economy. It was North Sea Oil that saved Britain. What will it be this time? Britain’s options are shrinking.
The Great Squeeze
Between 1930-1940, Britain was in a similar position, electorally and economically. Churchill, Montagu Norman executed the Great Squeeze on the Indian Peasant. What will it be this time around?
On October 27th, 1931, the Ramsey Macdonald led “National” Government (Conservatives and Liberals coalition, fearful of the rising Labour Party) in Britain won a huge majority of 554 MPs of 615. The economic crisis of September (misnamed as the Indian Currency Crisis), ensuing Depression era problems in the US, the Weimar Republic problems – and other issues pushed this ‘National’ government to ram through a series of measures (page 130-131) that depressed silver and gold prices and raised interest rates in India.
Which way the wind blows
Will Scotland secede? Will North Sea Oil go away with Scotland? Will Britain be able to withstand a hung Parliament and a coalition Government? Italy, after WW2 and before 1993 electoral reforms, had nearly 60 Government changes in 47 years (1946-1993). Will Britain go the Italian pre-1993 coalition-era way? Rapid descent or a slow spiral.
Or an unlikely phoenix-like rise?
PS – Phuski is colloquial Hindi for damp squib
There are three separate reasons for this … The reasons refer to the broad determinants of economic growth — capital, labour and productivity.
On the first, India is investing at the same rate as China (approximately 40 per cent of GDP), on the second, India’s labour force growth is about 1.8 per cent per year faster than China, and on the third, China has outpaced India by about 2 per cent per annum (for the last five years).
Most of this outpacing has had to do with the deep and deeper currency undervaluation practised by the Chinese authorities which led to two unsatisfactory outcomes: the great financial crisis of 2008, and now the largest and fastest growing polluter of the world.
For how long will the international community stand idly by? Not very, and this is the first big forecast for the ensuing decade: China’s exchange rate will appreciate significantly starting 2010. How significantly? A first year appreciation to about 6 yuan per dollar from the present 6.8 level. (via Surjit S Bhalla: India’s Shining Decade).
Plausible! Probable … Possible?
Surjit Bhalla outlines a plausible scenario – with China needing to adjusting their exchange rate upwards – much like other US client-states had to! Europe had to in the 70s, Japan in the 90s, Asian Tigers in last 10 years. As examined earlier in some detail by 2ndlook. One question is settled. There will be economic mayhem.
However, Bhalla assumes that the Dollar-Yuan revaluation will happen smoothly – without any significant disruption. And that is one, big, huge assumption – which is based on really, really slippery slope.
Bhalla would do well to remember that last time when China had a problem, it resulted in the India China War of 1962. Just after the disastrous Great Leap Forward and before the equally disastrous Cultural Revolution.
The Great Leap Forward began in 1957-58, saw famine and hunger across China. After the Communist takeover of China, land seized from land owners, was given to peasants in 1949. Ten years later, in 1959, the Chinese State took away the same land from the same peasant. Food shortages, starvation followed. Western (questionable) estimates are that 30 million people died during this period. War with India followed in 1962 – a diversion from the domestic Chinese catastrophe.
What will it be this time?
The approaching mayhem
The next few years will be tumultuous for China.
Much like, when Europe was weaned off the low exchange rate crutch in 1967-1974 period. Stagflation, oil shock, the Nixon Chop followed. How Japan had to live with endaka, the Plaza accord, with S&L crisis in the US. Or the Asian Tigers had to reset to a higher exchange rate and higher foreign reserves, that accompanied the 1997 (Asian Crisis) to 2000 (The Tech meltdown).
What will follow the Chinese moment in the sun? What will set off economic mayhem in China?
Will the Chinese Government be able to ride this storm? Without a war with India? Which side of the fence will China fall? Answers to these questions will be worth waiting for! And prepared with!
Signs of coming troubles?
When the Soviet Union imploded, one of the unexpected fall out was the Russian mafia. Recent troubles in China, with the underworld creates a spectre of yet another mafia creating global disturbances. One more element in global trouble spots. To understand this better, turn to Chinese cinema.
Most films that have any Chinese element in it, (actors, directors, characters, locations) end up having the Chinese underworld as an important part of the storyline. Is it that the Chinese are morbidly fascinated by criminals and the underworld – much like Europe was with English pirates and murdering Spanish Conquistadors.
Ranging from Jet Li in Kiss of the Dragon, (Jet Li takes on the French mafia) or Chow Yun-Fat in The Corrupter (exposing police-underworld nexus and corruption in the USA), or Jackie Chan in Rush Hour series or the Chinese Ric Young in The Transporter, Jet Li in Lethal Weapon 4.
All have two elements in common.One is the pervasive Chinese underworld. Across Europe, in the USA. In drugs, fake currency, in smuggling boat people, the Chinese are there – everywhere. Many of these movies have Chinese stars, directed by Chinese directors or even partly funded by Chinese studios .
The second is the absence of the Buddhist monk.
India – the loose cannon!
Now, India is one box which defies description. By any global and historical standards, the country should not even exist – much less prosper, or be a significant global player. Too many languages, too much poverty, too much freedom, too many political parties, too many languages, too many religions, too many racial types are the common factors going against India (so goes the Desert Bloc narrative).
In such a situation, even in India, for the Westernized types or the remnants of the Desert Bloc admirers, India remains a failure waiting to happen.
Unfortunately, for these doubting Cassandra’s, India has proven them wrong for more than 5000 years now!