How governments drive tobacco trade

Tobacco – a colonial addiction

Six companies and sundry State monopolies drive global cigarette consumption. These six companies derive more than US$100 billion dollars in revenues, globally. For many years they were advertising industries largest customers.These six companies are headquartered at former European imperial powers (UK, France, Spain), USA and Japan.

Four tobacco companies and State monopolies control global tobacco trade. (Image source - http://www.tobaccoatlas.org). Click for interactive source map.

In recent years, dozens of cigarette manufacturing companies have consolidated under four major private corporations: Altria/Philip Morris, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco International, and Imperial Tobacco. State monopolies are also major cigarette manufacturers. The largest state monopoly is China National Tobacco Corporation, with a global cigarette market share that exceeds that of any private company. Because the European Union intends to restrict further mergers and acquisitions that increase a tobacco company’s market-share dominance, industry consolidation trends may have peaked.

The tobacco industry includes some of the most powerful transnational corporate entities in the world. Tobacco conglomerates have diversified into many other industries, such as financial services, food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, real estate, hotels, restaurants, communications, and apparel, among others. The tobacco industry is expected to continue increasing in size and power.

The global tobacco market, valued at $378 billion, grew by 4.6 percent in 2007. By the year 2012, the value of the global tobacco market is projected to increase another 23 percent, reaching $464.4 billion. If Big Tobacco were a country, it would have the 23rd-largest gross domestic product in the world, surpassing the GDP of countries like Norway and Saudi Arabia. (via Tobacco Atlas Online – Tobacco Companies.).

India’s small production base is a combination of two aspects. Indian social inertia against addictive substances and the Government on the other. Indian cigarette business, small as it is, was put in Indian hands during Indira Gandhi’s socialist days. BAT lost control of ITC, which was placed in the hands of professional Indian managers.

Cigarette production in major markets (Graphics by timesofindia.com.). Click for larger image.

Chinese State Tobacco monopoly

The complicity of governments is very similar to the modern expansion in prostitution – especially in the West.

Or Western powers pushing opium in China in the nineteenth century. After the opium experience of the Chinese, when Western trading houses, under State protection, using the garb of ‘free trade’, made China into the largest consumer of opium.

The Chinese Govt. has replaced opium with tobacco.

The second secret of the tobacco business is to be dominant in purchasing and cornering tobacco stock. For cornering tobacco stocks, Big Tobacco depends on Central Banks’ support – aka State support. For instance, ITC (and other major global tobacco purchasers) in India has a major presence in Guntur, where Indian tobacco trade is headquartered.

ITC’s over-sized chequebook buys it market dominance.

The Indian tobacco profile

India is the third largest producer of tobacco – after China and USA. India ranks 6th as a tobacco exporting nation, as most of tobacco in India is consumed by domestic consumers. Tobacco consumption in India follows traditional patterns, as a non-industrial product – spanning chewing tobacco, bidis (tobacco rolled in leaves), hookah, clay pipes and snuff. Indian traditional tobacco usage consumes between 75%-85% of total tobacco cultivation.

Indian tobacco consumption and control follows consumption patterns of psychotropic drugs. All the major drugs in the world came of India – opium is afeem, khus–khus पोस्त; cannabis is charas, ganja, marijuana, hashish. Heroin is a derivative of opium. Even, as Indians are significant (legal) producers, they are not high on consumption lists.

However, drugs never became a big problem in India. Unlike in China, or in Medieval Middle East (when drug crazed criminals called hashishis became assassins). All these drugs were introduced to the world by India – with records going back to 1000 BC. Similarly family and peer pressure plays an important role in controlling the less dangerous form of traditional tobacco usage in India. In modern times, Indian gold smuggling was funded by carriage and export of drugs.

Cigarette production consumes less than one-fourth of India’s tobacco production.

Until two years ago, non-filter cigarettes comprised 30% of the total cigarette consumption. But with an increase in excise duty on non-filter cigarettes from Rs 168 to Rs 819 per thousand from March 1, 2008, the demand for low-priced filter cigarettes has risen At present, the excise duty on a pack of 10 filter cigarettes is Rs 8.19, and VAT Rs 1.05. Thus, taxes total Rs 10 per pack. Illicit cigarettes are sold for less than this amount, leading the government to believe that either registered cigarette units are evading duty or foreign-made cigarettes are flooding the market from Myanmar and the UK The business of low-cost cigarettes is big in the country, especially in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab. (via Article Window).

The expansion of manufacturing in cigarettes globally (see chart) is much like the housing scam in US and Europe. Banks made huge advances, created a bubble, and are now busy foreclosing these loans. The modern myth of Republic Democracy at work.

How maya works in real life.

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Pakistani diplomacy – a tour de force

Cartoon by Jerry Holbert; Courtesy - caveviews.blogs.com. Click for larger image.

Without Comment

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton traveled halfway around the world Friday for several hours of meetings with Pakistani leaders. Clinton’s brief visit — she arrived just after breakfast and was headed home by early afternoon — was part of the Obama administration’s efforts in recent weeks to leverage bin Laden’s killing during a secret raid by U.S. commandos into closer ties with Pakistan, rather than risk it finally severing the always-fragile partnership.

Administration officials also said they listened to Pakistan’s complaints about the slow delivery of promised military assistance and its desire for other forms of assistance that “they can show as proof of this relationship” to the Pakistani public. “We committed to look at that,” one official said.

Responding to recent reports that Pakistan has tried to solidify its ties with China and other traditional friends as a hedge against troubles with the United States, Clinton said that Americans provide Pakistan with “more support than Saudi Arabia, China and everybody else combined. . . . I’m not sure many Pakistanis know that.”

It was far from the first time the United States has announced an attempted reset. But administration officials traveling with Clinton said that the seriousness of the current crisis had forced both sides to confront the possible consequences of an irreconcilable breach and that the talks were marked by a new level of frankness.

After her news conference at the U.S. Embassy, she was whisked back to her plane and gone before most Pakistanis were even aware she was here.(via Clinton visits Pakistan to firm up new ties – The Washington Post; parts excised /reordered for brevity and continuity).

Cartoon By Nick Anderson, Houston Chronicle From the Cartoonist Group; Courtesy - americanprogress.org. Click for larger image.

She expressed Washington’s “strong commitment” to relations with Pakistan. Mrs Clinton said that the US had “absolutely no evidence that anyone at the highest level of the Pakistani government” knew where Bin Laden was and said she would return to Washington “ever more committed” to the relationship. In what correspondents say was perhaps an attempt to smooth ruffled Pakistani feathers over the killing, Mrs Clinton acknowledged the ”sacrifices made every single day by the men and women Pakistan’s military and its citizens”.

Mrs Clinton was accompanied on her visit by the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm Mike Mullen. The pair held meetings with senior Pakistani politicians and army officers to plead for greater co-operation in the war against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Having all of Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership in one room was unusual, perhaps an effort to get them talking to each other more.

It is the first such high-level visit to Pakistan since the killing of Bin Laden on 2 May. (via BBC News – Clinton exonerates Pakistan over Osama Bin Laden; parts excised /reordered for brevity and continuity).

Taliban and Pakistan Nukes; Cartoon by Mike Keefe; 04/25/2009 (Ref Num:69801); Courtesy - intoon.com. Click forlarger image.

Pakistan is preparing for further deterioration, building its non-U.S. alliances and options. For Pakistanis, the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden was a vivid demonstration that America does not respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The presence of American drones flying into Pakistan’s airspace underscores this all the time. For Americans, the fact that bin Laden was hiding for years in a major Pakistani garrison town surrounded by Pakistani army cantonments and retired officers’ homes confirmed the U.S. view that the country engages in a complex double game of patronizing some terrorists while fighting others. Both sides are right about the other.

Pakistan has seen the United States cut off aid many ties before in the last half century. It knows Washington is capricious. So it is strengthening its alternatives east and west. China is Pakistan’s reliable “all weather” ally. Both Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders travel often to Beijing to ensure close cooperation. Chinese engineers are building highways to link Tibet to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are key Muslim allies to the west. Pakistan has been the kingdom’s largest recipient of aid for decades and Saudi Prince Bandar just visited Islamabad to secure promises of Pakistani troops if the Arab Spring threatens to erupt in the gulf monarchies. A battalion of Pakistani troops is in Bahrain backing up the Saudi and Emirati forces that intervened there this year to crush the Shia protest movement.(via America’s Menacing Pakistan Problem – Brookings Institution; parts excised /reordered for brevity and continuity).

Related articles

• Clinton defends Pakistan leaders on bin Laden (alternet.org)
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• Hillary Clinton pledges US ‘commitment’ to Pakistan – BBC News (news.google.com)
• Hillary Clinton and Mike Mullen on America’s Problems With Pakistan (thedailybeast.com)
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• Osama Bin Laden Raid A Watershed Moment For Pakistan, Says Clinton (huffingtonpost.com)
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• US-Pakistan ties at a crossroads, Clinton says – San Francisco Chronicle (news.google.com)

The respect Pakistan deserves – and does not get

Global alarm about Pakistan, is triggered by a new and disruptive player, who has joined the power-grab game. Meet the mullah-madrasa-mujahhid combine.

Pax Americana has abused its power to bend Pakistan to a path of failures - and then US media makes mockery of Pakistan. (Cartoon by Joel Pett; source and courtesy - cartoonistsgroup.com). Click for larger source image.

Test of Political leadership What do you say about a leadership that has two of the world’s super-powers, USA and China, swearing friendship and loyalty – at least once, every week. Must be a rich, hi-tech country. No. We are not talking of Saudi Arabia or Japan. How about describing a leadership that gets economic and military aid – on its own terms, after flouting every previous conditionality imposed on it by the aid-givers? Is it some super-power? Or a very poor country. Even Haiti, Cuba, Congo, Ethiopia have to live with very strict conditionalities, imposed on them. In your words describe a country that shelters and protects half of the world’s most wanted fugitives? A-ha! We are talking of tax-evaders. Sorry. Switzerland, it ain’t. This country has also become a de facto nuclear power – and liberally auctioned nuclear technology, to anyone willing to pay for it. Israel is not who we are talking of. One hint. They have been doing this for 60 years.

All this – and more

Any regime that can dictate terms to USA, China, Saudi Arabia, like Pakistan has, is a skilled leadership. What more can I say? Except doff my imaginary hat in respect. (Not that I would like to live under such leaders).

USA, China, Saudi Arabia have been able to do little about Pakistan, apart from some squealing, public name-calling. In the end they paid up. Each time. For 60 years.

That is what matters.

United States is being subjected to an old-fashioned protection racket by Pakistan: pay up or things could go bad for you. Those making money out of extortion and blackmail always come back for more. (via US is paying for Pak protection racket | By SHAUN GREGORY |

Pakistan’s DNA

60 years ago, Jinnah held the entire sub-continent to ransom. After 200 conflicts in 150 years, as the British, their backs to the wall, were walking away, Jinnah became a spoiler. The hour of triumph turned into moment of tragedy. A country born out of this blackmail, has now formalized blackmail as State Policy.

Pakistan leadership knows what it is doing. There must be a reason why there is

hostility towards India and belief in the reality of the Indian threat to Pakistan (that) is woven into the fabric of every Pakistani soldier.

Pakistani state education system inculcates a hatred of the Hindu “other” and glorifies the Pakistan Army as the saviour of the nation, and second through an outdated military training regime which builds on the child’s prejudice and lays the foundation for a career of military service at the metaphorical remote frontier military post. (via Primary threat to Pak is from within, not India – Times Of India).

For most Indians, the puzzling thing about Pakistan, is their hostility towards India.

Has India hurt Pakistan

Logically, all this hostility and threat perception of India is misplaced, feel Indians. The Indian attitude towards Pakistan is best represented by an anti-Pakistan hawk, Bal Thackeray of the Shiv Sena, a right-wing party and a a known Pakistan-baiter. In a recent interview, he says

TIMES NOW: How do you view what has been happening in Pakistan over the last few months?

Bal Thackeray: Why should I bother? Let them go to hell. I don’t want to know.

For  this is just about what Pakistan means to-day to Indians. Except when there are terrorist incidents. Must Pakistan be wary and suspicious of India. After all, India

has twice imposed military defeat on Pakistan – in 1965 and 1971 – and in neither case sought to assimilate, occupy or otherwise destroy Pakistan. The creation of Bangladesh in the latter war was Bengali-led and an inevitable working through of the inherent contradictions of East and West Pakistan; India did not press its advantage in 1971 over the rump West Pakistan despite Pakistan having lost roughly half its navy, one third of its army, and a quarter of its air-force.

India did not seek to exploit its nuclear monopoly over Pakistan, after the nuclear test in 1974, to the detriment of the Pakistan state. Nor has India been involved in significant military action against Pakistan since 1971 except in response to Pakistani or Pakistani-backed adventurism, such as in Kargil in 1999. India has a “no first use” nuclear policy and in terms of casus belli “Cold Start” is reactive not pre-emptive. (via Primary threat to Pak is from within, not India – Times Of India).

How are Ajmal Kasab and Jared Laughner different? Guns in the hands of killers.

Power grab

Pakistan is actually 5 parts.

First is the army and the ISI combination. Then there are the popular politicians who take part in elections.

Add the mullah-madrasa-mujahhid combine with a fundamentalist clergy, various terrorist groups – like JeM, LeT, Al Qaida, various Taliban factions et al.

The economy and wealth are in hands of the 22 families. Mahbub-ul-Haq’s “22 families” speech in Karachi in 1968 highlighted the power and wealth of a few families in Pakistan.

And bringing up the rear there are the rest. No one in Pakistan talks to anyone. Each has contempt for the other four.

And all five have separate agenda.

Going for broke

To anyone but the most biased or blinkered, it is clear that there are political and economic goals that drive Pakistani rulers. Just like other rulers of the world. Instead of the one-party ‘dictatorship’ of China or a ‘two-party’ democracy in the West, there are many more Pakistani players – each jockeying for power, differently. In a very messy manner, according to ‘modern’ political standards.

Pakistani leadership has been able to use Saudi Arabia, China and USA to meets its own ends. (Cartoon by Ajit Ninan; on 24th May, 2011; source and courtesy - timesofindia.com). Click for source image.

Without making value judgements, multiple Pakistani factions are competing with each other to grab power.

The anti-India hysteria, alleged Islamization of Pakistan, the radical elements being a lunatic fringe or the mainstream, is just that much baloney.

Pakistani perception of the Indian threat to Pakistan is inculcated by the Pakistan Army for one central reason – to legitimize the Pakistan Army and ISI’s primacy in the Pakistan polity and thereby to justify the Army’s claim to a huge slice of Pakistan’s national resources. The perception of an Indian threat thus serves a purpose quite disconnected from the reality of that threat.

India’s large standing army is a material reality that has to be at the heart of Pakistan’s security concerns – is legitimate but misses two essential qualifications. The first is that India is no longer Pakistan’s primary security challenge; that is now the terrorism and extremism of militant Islam. The second is that in military terms, capability does not automatically equate with intent: India’s large standing army does not pose a threat to Pakistan per se any more than a large American or French army poses a threat per se to the UK. (via Primary threat to Pak is from within, not India – Times Of India).

India lives in a tough neighborhood. What to do? (cartoon by Kirtish Bhatt; courtesy - bamulahija.blogspot.com). Click for larger image.

All this talk of God, Allah, etc., is just that much hot and fetid air. The truth – all these are tools for power-players to use and come to power. What has made a difference and caused alarm across the world, is that a new disruptive player has joined the game.

What is worrying the world is that the LeT, Taliban are different kind of players  – and they play rough. Will the outcome be any different?

It will not be the usual ‘suspects’ but four different groups of Pakistanis on who will control Pakistan – and Pakistan’s atom-bombs, wealth, people, natural resources – the works. And a whole, new element.

It is called oil.

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Managing China

A sputtering economy with a strong yuan is not the same China anymore. How should India deal with a hesitant China.

Is India trying the same dance steps with a different partner? Things have changed … (Cartoon by Tom Toles; courtesy – usnews.com/). Click for larger image.

Flying dragon

The Chinese threat to India is something that occupies the minds of Indian defence strategists and every right-thinking Indian. Indian perception springs from the 1962 experience.

Last time China had a problem, it resulted in the India-China War of 1962. Just after the disastrous Great Leap Forward and before the equally disastrous Cultural Revolution.

The Great Leap Forward began in 1957-58, saw famine and hunger across China. After the Communist takeover of China, land seized from land owners, was given to peasants in 1949. Ten years later, in 1959, the Chinese State took away the same land from the same peasant. Food shortages, starvation followed. Western (questionable) estimates are that 30 million people died during this period.

War with India followed in 1962 – a diversion from the domestic Chinese catastrophe.

Crouching tiger

To handle this threat, India made, arguably, one of the best moves possible. An alliance with Soviet Russia.

As allies go, Soviet Union was in a different league, compared to USA. (Cartoon courtesy – siciliandefence.wordpress.com; Source – from Chinese daily-Global Times; artist attribution missing at source). Click for larger image.

India tilted increasingly towards the Soviets in seeking protection from China. The Chinese humiliated India in 1962. The Soviets brutalised China in the late 1960s in a “border conflict” that may have been the biggest undeclared war ever. The US was wooing Yahya to act as via media to establish diplomatic relations with China on the basis of “enemy of my enemy” equations.

Mrs G was stampeded into the Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty when she learnt from Kissinger that the US was pursuing diplomatic initiatives with China. The Chinese refrained from military action because the Soviets threatened to respond in kind. (via Cold facts about the Bangladesh war).

Is India doing the same thing now. Cosying upto USA, to seek an US umbrella against Chinese thunder? Just one thing needs to be remembered.

US is no Soviet Union – as allies go.

Can oil bring US, China and India together?

As things stand, oil is a good reason for China, India and USA to cooperate. US oil consumption is stagnant. But China and India are growing oil markets. Big Oil from US seeks to control flow of this oil to India and China. China is more mature power now. US power has its limits. India’s position is stronger.

Things have changed.

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Pakistan – Shifting sands?

Are things all that good in Yummrika? How bad are things in Pakistan? Some data.

Mebbe the Pakistani army is becoming less relevant? Is it possible. (Cartoon by Beeler / The Washington Examiner / Cagle Cartoons.). Click for larger image.

ecent events in Pakistan confirm that the game in our neighbourhood has changed.

Wassup

For one, Big Oil has got into the game.

An imploding Pakistan, with gun-toting jehadi terrorists are convenient caricatures that hide a deep shift. As recent events in Abbottabad show. Even as we ignore Nawaz Sharif’s impotent talk of peace between India-Pakistan.

Who cares …

On 4th January, 2011, Salman Taseer died. Shot dead by his own body guard. His support for non-Islamic minorities in Pakistan coupled with his support for removal of blasphemy laws from statute books angered extremists. Leading to this killing. Salmaan Taseer’s other bodyguards did nothing against the killer.

Many ‘powerful people’ of Pakistan, afraid of the mullah–madrasa–mujahhid combine, did not attend Taseer’s funeral.

Has Osama’s death changed anything? Is ISI still in charge of these gun-toting terroristas? I doubt … (Cartoon by Gorrell Art / Creators Syndicate Inc.; cartoon courtesy timeinc.net). Click for larger image.

Another hate crime

Exactly 4 days later, in USA, on the other side of the world, on Saturday 8th January, 2011, Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, was shot. At a Safeway grocery store, on the north side of Tucson, Arizona, during a public event.

More than 4 months since, Giffords remains hospitalized.

Desert Bloc parallels

Gabrielle Gifford and Salman Taseer were ‘marked’ for supporting ‘Others’. Christian intolerance, Islamic extremism.

Any difference?

Sympathy for ‘kaffirs‘ killed Salman Taseer. What hurt Gabrielle Giffords, was her support for a complicated healthcare bill and a ‘nuanced approach’ to immigration – seemingly to support ‘aliens’.

All that seems to separate Pakistan and US of A, is a very thick wad of notes.

Shoot-to-kill

Gabrielle Giffords a Democrat was put in the cross-hairs of a gun, by leaders like Sarah Palin – a US presidential hopeful. The job of pulling the trigger was left to some ‘radical’.

Just like in Pakistan. Where thousands of guns were handed over. Without due diligence. Targets were pointed out. Targets like Salman Taseer, Benazir Bhutto, Daniel Pearl.

And India.

There are new dots. The connections between these new dots have changed. Old habits die hard. (Cartoon by Chappatte / Int’l Herald Tribune / Cagle Cartoons.). Click for a larger image.

How deep is your love …

Usual news apart, read this.

LAHORE: The Punjab government has formed a committee which will present a report on the airing of cartoons depicting Hindu mythology and if they can be banned in Pakistan.

Even though Indian TV channels are currently off-air in Pakistan, several cable operators are broadcasting Indian content to meet the demands of their clientele.

A meeting of the committee was held in Lahore, which discussed ways to get these cartoons banned in Pakistan. (via Punjab govt goes after Hindu mythology cartoons – The Express Tribune).

I am reminded about an interview with Govindacharya (ex-BJP), in the same context, who claimed that well-springs of culture run deeper than commonly believed. I am beginning to wonder …

Was Govindacharya right, after all!

The taking of Pakistan

The game has changed.

Surely. Now oil is a part of the Pakistani jigsaw. Oil prices, the oil-dollar tango, Big oil hide behind the mullah-madrasa-mujahhid troika..

To understand this, we will need to ask some questions all over again. Just how strong is the idea of Pakistan? Can this idea of Pakistan be hijacked? Who benefits with such a hijack? What benefits are expected from this hijacking?

To understand some questions on Pakistan, we need to abandon official Congressi narrative. Equally, the Western rubbish about Pakistan.

Some answers, we have. For some haze to clear, we will need to wait. For some outcomes, we must be prepared.

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• The headache that is Pakistan (quicktake.wordpress.com)
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The headache that is Pakistan

Gunmen in USA have attempted and killed more people and US Presidents than gunmen in Pakistan. American Government has made guns cheap and accessible in – both in USA and Pakistan.

Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan – 2003- 2011. Source – South Asia Terrorism Portal; Copyright © 2001 SATP. All rights reserved. Click for a larger image.

Why Pakistan gets bad press

After 60 years of Pakistan, India needs to take a fresh look at Pakistan. Maybe, even the world should look again at Pakistan.

To start with, Pakistan has become ‘famous’ for terrorist killings.

Going by numbers

Technically, more Americans are killed by guns in USA than in Pakistan. For instance, USA law-enforcement authorities found that ‘14,000 murders involving firearms were committed in 2005′. Surely, it is no comfort to American gunfire victims that they were not killed by jehadis.

What is it with America and guns? Why does the most advanced democracy, which prides itself on being a bastion of reason and civilisation in a brutal and ugly world, put up with this carnage in its own back yard? Why does it tolerate the sea of blood that flows from gun incidents, with about 100,000 people killed or injured every year? Why does it accept an annual murder rate by guns that is 13 times that of Germany and 44 times that of England and Wales? People tend to remember the low points, such as the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy in 1968. But do they know that since those two men hit the floor, more than a million people have been killed in the US from the barrel of a gun? (via US gun crime: death for sale | World news | The Guardian.

The case of Pakistan is becoming more complex. Uncharted waters, anyone? (Cartoonist – Adam Zyglis; courtesy – http://www.adamzyglis.com). Click for larger image.

Uncharted waters, anyone?

There will be protests that the SATP figure of 33,213 of Pakistani casualties, is a case of serious under-estimation and under-reporting.

Assuming that there is data-error, by how much can these numbers be multiplied. By 1000%? Maybe 2000%! Or will 3000% be more satisfactory?

At 3000%, more people are killed in US, with guns, than in Pakistan, as per SATP figures.

Coming to political assassinations, Pakistan is no worse. Gunmen in USA have attempted and killed more US Presidents than gunmen in Pakistan. Look deeply enough, you cannot hold the State of Pakistan (such as it is) responsible for free availability of guns.

One may argue that the Pakistani State anyway cannot be held responsible for most other things that a ‘modern’ State is responsible for. American Government has made guns cheap and accessible in – both in USA and Pakistan.

Not just Pakistan, but the whole world is misreading Pakistan. The problem is deeper and different. (Cartoon by DAVE GRANLUND, POLITICALCARTOONS.COM – 5/4/2011 12.00.00 AM). Courtesy – caglecartoons.com. Click for larger image.

So, why does Pakistan alone get such bad press – and so much name calling.

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Zoroastrian Pride – At what cost?

Is it a false sense of superiority that is behind the Zoroastrian problem? Instead of feeling superior, is it time that Zoroastrians learnt something from these Hindoos, divided by caste?

Life in Parsi Colony - Cartoon by Satish Acharya.

The Parsis were exemplary because they stood high above the common divisiveness of caste and demonisation of The Other. We must remain a community that’s worth emulating – and worth preserving. (via Blindly into the abyss – The Times of India).

Snootiness stops you from learning

Bachi, I would not be so superior over these ‘Hindoos, divided by caste’. The same Hindus united to give shelter to your refugee forefathers, when driven away from your homeland. And before giving refuge, some 500 years earlier, to win back the lands conquered by Alexander.

Without Indian elephants corps, would the Sassanians have ruled for more than 500 years?

Staying down is defeat

Anyone in the world can have their lucky day – including Alexander!

Losing to Alexander was not the tragedy. The one important question which is ignored was “Were the Greeks able to retain their Indian or Persian conquests?”

Within the next few years, Western history admits that the Indians kings won back all their losses – quite unlike the rest of Alexander’s conquests. For instance the Sassanians, a true-blue Persian dynasty was able to retake Persia, in 223 AD, 500 years after Alexander, from Parthians, who in turn were able to depose the Seleucids after 250 years – by 63 BC. Egypt and Greece never recovered.

After the defeat and death of Cyrus The Great at the hands of Tomyris, the Persians stopped looking India-wards. 500 years later (nearly), with the help of the Indian cavalry and elephant corps, the Sassanians stopped the Romans at Persian borders in 363 AD.

Achaemenids did not learn their lessons from the death of Cyrus, the Great. Possibly, the outcome against Alexander would have been different, had they used more elephants at Gaugamela – instead of 12-15. Similarly, a 1000 years later, the Sassanian army, had forgotten their lessons – and could not use their few elephants to full effect, against the Islāmic Arabs.

But, the Sassanian dynasty was able to wrest back and defend Persian dominions from the Greco-Romans, after setting up an elephants corps in their army – evidenced, for instance, by the carvings at Taq-i-Bustan.

At one time, the Sassanian rulers had increased its Indian war elephant corps to 12,000.

Benefits of collaboration? When life in a Parsi household was lived at a leisurely pace ... Of an Edwardian India By SILLOO MEHTA (Image courtesy - Copyright © 2011, The Hindu.). Click for larger image.

Entrepreneurs or Collaboration?

Is it the entrepreneurship of Homi Mody that you are proud of?

Or his collaboration with the British? Can it be Homi Mody’s adulation and admiration of the British?

October 28th 1933.

On that day, the Bombay Mill Owners Association signed the Lees-Mody Pact. This earned all Indian industrialists, Nehru’s distrust. The British had succeeded once again in divide-and-rule.

While the whole country was on a boycott of British goods (specially Lancashire), 21 businessmen led by Homi Mody (father of Russi Mody, Piloo Mody) agreed to a system of ‘imperial preferences’ – which furthered India’s impoverishment. Earlier, Homi Mody had warned Gandhiji against the renewing the swaraj movement.

Homi Mody had his own political ambitions. After Independence, Nehru did try and make up with Homi Mody. Homi Mody was also included in to India’s Constituent Assembly – even though he had served the British well.

Or is it the wealth from opium trade with China by Parsi traders who set up their offices in Hong Kong that you are proud of? Or the collaboration in the opium trade (and slavery) on which the British Empire was built. Not that Parsis were not the only collaborators. Remember these Hindus traders, divided by caste, restricted by shubh labh compunctions played a lesser role (compared to the European and Parsi traders) in this opium trade.

Even during Alexander’s conquest of Persia, witness the complete collaboration that Alexander got from the defeated Achaemenid ruling family of Sisygambis, Stateira, Oxathres (brother of Darius III; also written as Oxoathres and Oxyathres) et al. But, at Indian North-West of the foursome Bessos, Spitamenes, Datafernes and the Scythians made Alexander’s life miserable. At Gaugamela, it was Bessos and his cavalry which broke Alexander’s formation.

The tribes and kshatrapas (satraps) of Indian North West swath, delayed Alexander for nearly three years – before he could step into India. In India, Alexander had to pay the King of Taxiles, Omphis, (Ambi) 1000 talents of gold (more than 25 tons of gold) – to secure an alliance. He had to return the kingdom of Punjab to Porus – purportedly, after winning the battle.

What were Alexander’s loot and pickings from India? Negligible.

SKETCH OF PARSI COUPLE BY MOKSHA; Posted on SATURDAY, MARCH 22, 2008. Click for larger image.

Bactra – Bharat-ah …

Of course, India is not what India calls itself.

Bharat(ah) and aryavart are the more common names. Bactra is the Greek pronunciation (possibly) of Bharat(ah). Till about 8th century BC, Zoroastrians were based in Iran.

Within a few years, after the fall of Zoroastrian Sassanian kingdom, under persecution by the Islāmic conquerors, in Persia, the first set of Zoroastrians made their way back to  India. Over the next 200 years, from 8th century to 10th century, the Zoroastrians returned to Bactra  – Bharat(ah).

This false sense of superiority is what is behind the Zoroastrian problem. Just like all Parsis are not drug dealers or British collaborators, Hindus don’t deserve negative tags. Factually bad and misplaced in terms of etiquette, you should take a 2ndlook at this caste tag.

Instead of feeling superior, it is time that Zoroastrians learnt something from these Hindoos, divided by caste.

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• Rare Objects, Rarer Practices (online.wsj.com)
• Cyrus the Great’ Cylinder Returns to Britain (frstephensmuts.wordpress.com)
• Who Was Better Alexander The Great or Phillip Ii (Essay) (socyberty.com)
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Shakti goes to Hollywood

Publicity poster for Shakti.

Going Hollywood

Shakti, a 1982 film, directed by Ramesh Sippy (of Sholay, Seeta aur Geeta fame), was an acclaimed commercial and critical success. In the India of the early 80s, with chronic shortages and near-zero opportunities, Shakti was about the interplay between ethics and expediency. The climax scene became a legend with the fugitive son (Amitabh Bachchan) dying in his cop-father’s arms (Dilip Kumar) – shot by the father.

Imagine my acute feeling of déjà vu, when a similar story, with a similar scene was recreated in a Hollywood film Heat. Al Pacino an upright policeman kills the escaping criminal Robert De Niro. Apart from minor changes in the script, the plot follows Shakti lines – right to the casting level. Even the length of the movie is Shakti-like – three hours for a Hollywood film?

Unheard of.

Interestingly, this film also did very well on the international circuit – and not as well in the USA.

At the same time, any movie with Pacino, De Niro, and Val Kilmer is bound to be a commercial success. Heat had a budget of $60 million, and ended up grossing over $170 million worldwide. $107 million of the box office revenues came from non-US audiences, as the movie was particularly successful in France, where 1.3 million tickets were sold.

Am I the only one

My first reaction was to assume my judgement as biased. But then Monsieur Google prevailed. A 30 minute trawl yielded excellent catch. One of the first comments that I could track back came in 2005. When Humble Rafi pointed out

Did you know HOLLYWOOD copied this movie as “HEAT” ?

AL PACINO is there.

Read this chat on Youtube on this same scene two years ago (extracted below).

Search for “dilip kumar kills amitabh bachan” in youtube videos to see the original inspiration of this scene shot way back in 1982 at Bombay Airport, India! (sunnytravels 2 years ago)

this ending scene is copied off 1982 indian film shakti starring dilip kumar and amitabh bachan search shakti dilip kumar kills amitabh bachan (qezza22 2 years ago).

haha it kinda is copied isnt it (secretlover12 2 years ago).

You are right . . the inspiration for that scene came from that movie Shakti made in 1982 at Bombay airport.. so either Michael Mann just loves Shakti or it was an incredible coincidence! 🙂 (sunnytravels 2 years ago).

At a movie forum, on 28-11-2008, Guillaume P pointed out

Re: Heat (Michael Mann,1995)

Before “Heat”,there was “Shakti”:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfxemtLGGZE

The next day, at another forum,

Mannfan – 29-11-2008, 13:37 said,

Before HEAT there was SHAKTI!:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfxemtLGGZE

Hollywood Cartoon - Courtesy - http://www.bagagedrager.nl/. Click for larger image.

DesiMusicClub hesitantly says that Shakti (1982)

reminds me of the Hollywood movie ‘Heat’ – also a cop movie that put together 2 legends in one movie (DeNiro & Pacino).

Satya, in another film-review site pointed out in 2009

Amitabh bachan and dilip kumar starrer Shakthi (1982 ) had exact same climax as Heat !! I still wonder if for once the hollywood copied from bollywood ?!. please see for yourself to confirm.

SearchIndia.com Responds:

Will do.

Now, wouldn’t that be something – a Robert De Niro/Al Pacino movie being a lift of a Bollywood film.

In 2009, a fan of Amitabh Bachchan also commented in Amitabh Bachchan’s blog, how Heat was so similar to Shakti.

a full 13 years ahead of the Pacino vs De Nero face of in Heat, looks like Micheal Mann must have seen Shakti as ending is too similar!

The same fan (probably) of Amitabh Bachchan followed up with a review. A few months ago, in a webzine he linked the films together saying, Shakti was a “highly recommended film to watch for all real Hindi film fans and yes the film is so much better than the clash between Pacino and De Nero in Heat!”

Michael Mann’s muse?

Michael Mann’s first claim to fame was a short film, that won him awards at Cannes, Melbourne and Barcelona film festivals – a film with a ‘succession of hypnotic images and colours are cut to haunting Indian jugalbandi music.’

Name of the movie – Jaunpuri.

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Gold grand prix – The Chinese challenge

Total Gold demand - Top world markets (Image courtesy - ft.com). Click for a larger copy.

Golden ambitions

Western media has breathlessly announced that India’s leadership of many centuries as the largest buyer of gold has been broken by the Chinese. What does this mean for India and China? Not to forget the rest of the world. In the last few months,

India and China combined to contribute 63 percent of the total gold jewelry demand in the world in the first quarter.

Investment demand has grown (in China) by an average 14 percent a year since deregulation of the market in 2001, “a trend that has continued with the strong growth momentum witnessed in the first quarter,” it said. China’s investment demand jumped 123 percent to 90.9 tons in the first three months, compared with an 8 percent rise to 85.6 tons for India.

The country’s total (investment + jewelry)  gold demand in the first quarter jumped 47 percent from a year ago to 233.8 tons, the council said. That still lags behind Indian consumption of 291.8 tons, according to the council. (emphasised text in brackets supplied.)

Gold-to-silver ratios in the past few decades. Image courtesy - wsj.com. Click for larger image.

Law abiding citizens

International regulatory damping of gold demand – especially in USA, India and China eased from 1975 onwards – from December 31st, 1974, with Executive Order 11825 by Gerald Ford.

Unlike India, which was well serviced and supplied with gold by the Indian underworld, China and the USA were deprived of gold supplies during this regulatory blackout of nearly 50 years. Current growth in demand for gold in China is building on a

low base which means that the investment demand and demand for an inflation hedge from 1.3 billion increasingly wealthy Chinese people is more than sustainable.

The not realized important fact that the people of China were banned from owning gold bullion from 1950 to 2003, means that the per capita consumption of over 1.3 billion people is rising from a tiny base. Gold ownership by the Chinese public remains minuscule. Especially when compared to other Asian countries such as Vietnam and India.

Should the Chinese economy crash as some predict, demand could fall. However, sharp declines in Chinese equity and property markets and a depreciation of the yuan would likely lead to significant safe haven demand for gold. Chinese demand alone likely puts a floor under the gold market at $1,450/oz.

It is worth noting that the People’s Bank of China’s gold reserves are very small when compared to those of the U.S. and indebted European nations. China appears to be quietly accumulating gold bullion reserves. As was the case previously, they will not announce their gold purchases in order to ensure they accumulate sizeable reserves at more competitive prices.

China – Biggest gold producer and consumer

China is already the world’s largest producer of gold from 2007, for four years now. China has captured the top position from

South Africa, which was producing as much as 1,000 tons of gold in 1970, (but) has seen its mining production decline for five straight years.

Accelerating a drop in output last year, the country’s mining authorities started a crackdown on unsafe mines after 3,200 workers were trapped at Harmony Gold Mining Ltd.’s Eldestrand mine in October.

Following an order by President Thabo Mbeki, the mining commission in the last three months started to requiring gold mines that suffer a fatal accident to suspend operations while a safety audit takes place. (emphasised text in brackets supplied.)

In 2010 Chinese gold production was

340.88 tonnes of gold in 2010, retaining the position of the world’s largest producer of the precious metal, the China Gold Association said. The number of domestic gold producers shrank to around 700 at the end of 2010, from 1,200 in 2002, through mergers and acquisitions

Further recently, the Chinese Government, through public sector companies, bought South African gold mines from the Australian owner.

Citic Group, China’s biggest state- owned investment company, and partners agreed to buy Gold One International Ltd. (GDO) for about A$444 million ($469 million), gaining gold assets in South Africa.  China Development Bank Corp. and Long March Capital Group are the other members of the bidding group, which is seeking as much as a 75 percent stake and plans to keep the company trading in Australia and South Africa, with a potential listing in Hong Kong. Citic is bidding through its Baiyin Non-Ferrous Group Co. unit and China Development Bank through its China-Africa Development Fund.

Gold One operates the Modder East mine in South Africa and also has projects in Mozambique and Namibia.

A frothing-at-the-mouth FT.com found many reasons to critique the deal.

China and silver

The other big story is silver. Why this sudden spurt in prices? How sustainable is price increase in silver?

Silver is down nearly 30% this month in volatile trading. Such a move in the Dow Jones Industrial Average would equate to an eye-popping drop of more than 3,700 points. Tony Crescenzi of Pacific Investment Management Co. called silver’s parabolic rise and subsequent skid a “tulip mania-style move.”

Silver backers counter that even with its recent drop, the lesser precious metal has retained a nearly 80% gain over the past year.

While gold supply is well understood, silver bulls and bears argue about just how much silver is out there. Some analysts make the case that silver in batteries and photographic film is “recycled” back into the market, reducing scarcity. Silver bulls, of course, think that’s a bunch of poppycock.

More important, the gold-silver price ratio has gotten out of whack. During most of the past 10 years, the ratio hovered around 60, meaning gold was 60 times more expensive than silver. Silver’s incredible surge over the past year has pushed the ratio down to 43, a level not seen since silver’s last crazed phase in the early 1980s. At its peak, back on April 29, the ratio narrowed to 31, a level not seen in three decades.

Silver bulls will argue that the gold-silver price ratio should reflect the 15.5 level authorized by France in 1803, or the 15 level outlined in the U.S. Coinage Act of 1792. It’s more likely that the ratio will revert to modern-era norms rather than race back to the Napoleonic era. And that means that gold, more than silver, looks like the solid store of value today.

Behind this huge spike in silver prices

The Chinese.

As 2ndlook has pointed out earlier, Chinese love silver – and Indians love gold. Most of Chinese consumption of gold is by a few well-heeled elites with guanxi.

But only look at the Chinese trading frenzy in silver.

Chinese speculators have emerged as a big driver of silver’s spectacular rally and subsequent crash with trading in the metal in Shanghai soaring nearly 30-fold since the start of the year.

The commodity, nicknamed “the devil’s metal” for its wild price swings, surged 175 per cent from August to a peak of almost $50 a troy ounce two weeks ago. Since then, it has plummeted 35 per cent, hitting a low of $32.33 on Thursday.

At the same time, silver turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China’s main precious metals trading hub spiked, rising 2,837 per cent from the start of this year to a peak of 70m ounces on April 26, according to exchange data.

The number of contracts outstanding, an indicator of investor exposure, doubled over the same period.

Silver trading in Shanghai remains below the levels in London and New York, the two main global hubs, but its rapid growth means its has become increasingly significant in driving prices.  “I’m pretty certain it’s the Chinese retail [investment] that is driving this move,” one senior precious metals banker said. “There’s an enormous amount of speculation going on out there, they’ve got the bit between their teeth.”

The Chinese gorilla

Looking at the reports of the market and commodities, it is plain that the Chinese Government is an interested player in gold acquisition – something that 2ndlook projected nearly 4 years ago. And the Chinese consumer is behind the rise in silver prices.

Since China is anyway the world’s largest producer of gold, disruption in gold supplies has not highly marked. If other Governments follow the Chinese example, gold prices could explode. If Chinese buying gets very aggressive, again, prices could spike.

The only cloud on the horizon could be some kind of consensus to bring some undeclared quantities of gold into the market – like the Central Banks Gold Agreement (CBGA). Is that likely? The only such seller could be EU members? With the Euro-zone and the Euro-currency itself in such trouble,  would ECB members dare to sell gold?

Especially, if the Chinese Government is ready to buy?

Top national central bank gold holdings. (Image courtesy - FT.com.). Click for larger copy.

Related articles

• China Is Now Top Gold Bug (online.wsj.com)
• Chinese set new standard in buying gold (ft.com)
• China loves gold (theglobeandmail.com)
• Why Gold Will Outshine Silver (online.wsj.com)
• 4 Must-See Charts About Silver (businessinsider.com)

Of Mice and Men – 2015 Gold Outlook

USA, EU trade relationships with oil producers. The European hands-on, micro-management issue of trade balance seems to be delivering? Some may question, what it is delivering, though.

Of mice and men

While the US dollar is weakening, by design, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are being bankrupted by a deliberately overvalued Euro.

In such a scenario, China believes that it has a winning hand. Even though, the Chinese exports juggernaut has been slowed by a yuan, trading at 17 year-highs. March 2011 reports indicate

an unexpected $7.3 billion trade deficit, the biggest in seven years. The nation’s (China’s) exports rose at the slowest pace since November 2009.

The US is betting that a weak dollar will reignite economic growth – much like what happened after the Japanese Yen strengthened due to Plaza Accord (1985).

For Europe, the grand prix is to replace the dollar as the currency of international trade – especially oil trade. Euro as a international trade-currency-of-choice, will give the Euro region access to more than 1 trillion euros in zero-cost floating balances.

China is expecting the yuan to play a similar role. Such are plans made by mice and men.

Monsieur Murphy says

What can go wrong with these plans? Plenty.

The eternal enemy of currency manipulation – gold. As a million bureaucrats work on the mechanics of their plans,

Increasingly, everyone is a victim - except the powerful 0.5% elite that rules the world. Break their power. Buy gold. (Cartoonist - Ted Rall; courtesy - http://charlesgoyette.com). Click for larger image.

Sales of gold coins are on track for the best month in a year amid the worst commodities rout since 2008, a sign that bullion’s longest bull market in nine decades has further to run, if history is a guide.

The U.S. Mint sold 85,000 ounces of American Eagle coins since May 1 as the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials fell 9.9 percent. The last time sales reached that level, bullion rose 21 percent in the next year. Gold will advance 17 percent to a record $1,750 an ounce by Dec. 31 and keep gaining in 2012, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 31 analysts, traders and investors shows.

UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, had its second-best day this year for physical sales on May 9, according to a report the following day. The bank’s sales to India, the world’s top bullion consumer, are more than 10 percent higher than in 2010. (via Gold Coins Show Bull Market Unbowed in Commodities Decline – Bloomberg).

You take free advice …?

While George Soros talks of gold being the ultimate bubble, his companies are quietly buying gold.

Back in late January, as the world’s important people rubbed elbows in Davos, billionaire investor George Soros had some rather definitive thoughts to offer on gold, which he called “the ultimate asset bubble,” according to reports.

However, he neglected to mention that his hedge fund had been buying.

Another report points out that the liquidation (by people like Soros) of investments in public investment vehicles may be replaced by private investments.

In this game of musical chairs, when the music stops, everyone who does not own gold is out. (Cartoon by David Horsey; Courtesy - http://politicalhumor.about.com). Click for larger image.

The new filings from funds “may show that big names exited ETPs and this news may cause prices to slip in the very short term,” said Bayram Dincer, an analyst at LGT Capital Management in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. Some funds switched to holding gold directly so they wouldn’t have to announce it publicly, he said.

Is gold a bubble?

A rather disbelieving journalist writes of the situation in the West

Gold is in a bubble. Anyone will tell you that. They’ve been saying it since gold was about, oh, $500 an ounce. But it’s a funny kind of a bubble. It’s the only one I’ve encountered where so few people seem to own the asset in question.

During the dot-com bubble, you met lots of people with tech stocks. Taxi drivers told you what dot-coms they owned. During the housing bubble you met normal, ordinary people who were trading up to expensive homes using adjustable-rate mortgages, buying new condos off plan to flip, and cashing out their fictional “equity” through a refinance mortgage.

But who actually owns gold? I keep hearing about the gold bubble, but every time I ask people if they own any themselves, they say, “no, no, of course not, it’s a bubble.”

Some bubble.

Central banks around the world are printing more dollars, euros, pounds and yen. Gold may simply be a less awful currency than all the others. Banks can’t print any more of it, so its price should probably rise while other currencies fall.

For this year, the question in India seems to be, “Will gold cross Rs.25000, by 2011 Diwali?”

Related articles

• Gold Coins Show Bull Market Unbowed in Commodities Decline (businessweek.com)
• Soros Sells Most of Gold ETP Holdings During First Quarter (businessweek.com)
• A closer look at George Soros’ big quarter of selling gold (financialpost.com)
• Why is George Soros selling gold, but John Paulson not? (theglobeandmail.com)
• China Is Now Top Gold Bug (online.wsj.com)
• Gold Investment Demand in China (lonerangersilver.wordpress.com)
• Chinese set new standard in buying gold (ft.com)
• Gold grand prix – The Chinese challenge (quicktake.wordpress.com)
• Shanghai Planning Gold Exchange-Traded Funds as Demand Jumps (businessweek.com)
• Oil, gold back in demand (news.theage.com.au)