Home > Global Finance, Indian Economy, Pax Americana, Politics > Retail FDI – The Real Dangers

Retail FDI – The Real Dangers


With hands tied behind their backs, Indian retail is being asked to ‘compete’ with Big Retail. Like Subhiksha, Big Retail will fail – unless funded by RBI or US Fed.

Can an Indian bania fight against Ben Bernanke's printing press; churning out paper-dollars 24x7, for US corporations to buy the world.  |  Cartoonist - Clay Jones. Published 01/26/11 by the Fredericksburg Free-Lance Star (fredericksburg.com); source and courtesy - civilwar.org  |  Click for larger image.

Can an Indian bania fight against Ben Bernanke's printing press; churning out paper-dollars 24x7, for US corporations to buy the world. | Cartoonist - Clay Jones. Published 01/26/11 by the Fredericksburg Free-Lance Star (fredericksburg.com); source and courtesy - civilwar.org | Click for larger image.

Dominated by banias, small shopkeepers are notorious for cheating customers through adulteration and fiddled weighing scales. They are also notorious for evading sales tax and income tax. That’s why the bania is widely despised (although it is wrong to tarnish all with the same brush).

Yet we have the astonishing spectacle of several political parties and state governments supporting the crorepati bania against foreign retailers, whose alleged crime is that they will lower prices so drastically as to wipe out small shopkeepers. If indeed, foreign retailers will reduce prices dramatically–a highly exaggerated hope-this would be a fabulous blessing for the aam admi, struggling with inflation. So, politicians who oppose foreign retailers are promoting the aam bania against the aam aadmi. This is all phrased in socialist rhetoric, but amounts to backing rich traders against poor consumers. (via Swaminomics : SA Aiyar’s blog-The Times Of India).

Have no data – but will caricature

What data does Swaminathan A. Aiyer (SAA) have when he says ‘small shopkeepers are notorious for cheating customers’?

Swaminathan A. Aiyer (SAA) is actually attempting a simple colonial-socialistic demonization of the Indian entrepreneur. All but forgotten, SAA is trying to revive this propaganda image. The corner banias are usually more ethical than Big Corporations – especially looking at new, post-liberalized companies in media, power, finance, food, electronics, mining, .

Moreover, it is always easier to shift my business from an unethical bania than from the few monopolistic unethical companies in the new-era oligarchy.

Small business has disappeared from the economic landscape of the G20 countries - except India. How can the 'small' guy be allowed to survive?  |  Cartoonist - Terry Wise; source and courtesy - cartoonstock.com  |  Click for source image.

Small business has disappeared from the economic landscape of the G20 countries - except India. How can the 'small' guy be allowed to survive? | Cartoonist - Terry Wise; source and courtesy - cartoonstock.com | Click for source image.

Hoax Claims

The other claim that modern retail makes is lower prices for consumers.

But, all major existing retailers in India have not been able to lower prices to the consumers in any manner, whatsoever.

Why assume foreign companies can do it?

Foreign retail has not benefitted the consumer or the farmer in the West.

Why assume that this miracle will happen in India?

One thing that unites both the proponents of foreign investment in multi-brand retailing and their disparate opponents is the conviction that foreign capital will introduce a spectacular degree of efficiency in a largely chaotic sector. It is recognized, and has been recognized since the NDA was first excited by the idea, that bulk buying and a streamlined distribution channel will help lessen the huge ‘farm to fork’ differential. That a transformation of retail into a part of the modern, organized sector will have a multiplier effect is also not seriously disputed. (via Right & Wrong : Swapan Dasgupta’s blog-The Times Of India).

With their hands tied behind their backs, Indian retail is being asked to 'compete' with big retail. Like Subhiksha, Big Retail will fail - unless funded by RBI or US Fed.  |  Cartoonist - Clay Jones. Published by the Fredericksburg Free-Lance Star (fredericksburg.com); source and courtesy - civilwar.org  |  Click for source image.

With their hands tied behind their backs, Indian retail is being asked to 'compete' with big retail. Like Subhiksha, Big Retail will fail - unless funded by RBI or US Fed. | Cartoonist - Clay Jones. Published by the Fredericksburg Free-Lance Star (fredericksburg.com); source and courtesy - civilwar.org | Click for source image.

Foreign more problematic

Many commentators talk of how Indian business is afraid of competition. And wants protection.

The real story is that US corporations with access to endless dollars from the US Fed can easily kill Indian retailers.

And that is a real fear and a real problem.

Bad Idea

Giant Retail will wipe out 50 million entrepreneurs and convert them to obedient employees.

This basic change from an entrepreneurial India to employee-India is the dream that the Desert Bloc has – and with the help of our Desert Bloc polity, will attempt. The change from entrepreneur-to-employee is something that will help in the creation of Big Business and the Big State.

As it has happened in the West.

Worst Idea

As consumers we may get a few years of lower prices – financed by RBI /US Fed, but finally we will pay the price. We, the Indian farmers and the Indian consumers.

Make no mistake about that.

  1. December 4, 2011 at 3:24 pm

  2. December 6, 2011 at 6:53 pm

    you do a great disservice to indian entrepreneurs by saying that 50 million of them will jst sit there and die.no.they will innovate and thrive.
    the indian bania could buy from the jew and sell to the scotsman and still make a tidy profit.i’ve no worries about them
    even when the big bazars and reliance have popped up,the kirana in my neighborhood just cleaned up their act.
    the matter of US fed or govt subsidizing them is not a bad thing either.instead of us brown skinned fellow subsidizing gora consumption,it wouldnt be bad if they decided to subsidize us.both are wrong -the whole aim of doing business is not to subsidize others,but that is another point altogether.
    the real problems to indian retail are from the APMC monopoly and not foreign money.a piddly few billion is not going to do much.economics is not a zero sum game.unless both sides of the trade gain,the transaction wont happen -unless there is a threat of violence.

    if prices go up after few years of low prices,as you seem to fear(which is baseless considering it has never happened anywhere in the world),the kiranas will prop back up if they can provide value.

  3. December 6, 2011 at 7:29 pm
    you do a great disservice to indian entrepreneurs by saying that 50 million of them will jst sit there and die.no.they will innovate and thrive.

    We will talk about this after you run a corner shop – and innovate and thrive. Yes – I speak from experience.

    even when the big bazars and reliance have popped up,the kirana in my neighborhood just cleaned up their act.

    Modern Trade (like Reliance and Big Bazaar) has invested close to Rs.50,000 in retail trade – and have made no money out of the business. Except due to wonders of double-entry book-keeping.

    Modern trade has sucked out close to 25%-40% of the business that the corner retailer had earlier. The corner retailer is in real trouble – for the last 5-7 years now.

    a piddly few billion is not going to do much. if prices go up after few years of low prices,as you seem to fear(which is baseless considering it has never happened anywhere in the world),the kiranas will prop back up if they can provide value.

    Take the courier industry for instance. Till a decade ago, the industry was dominated by domestic entrepreneurs. Today a few domestic entrepreneurs are struggling to survive. In the meantime, foreign multinationals have invested close to Rs.2000 cr. in the market. What do you think will happen once a duopoly is managed in India also – like in the rest of the world.

    Read the linked posts from Raj Patel – who has analyzed the Food Industry in particular.

    I suggest …Smell the coffee.

    It has a very bitter and burning aroma to it.

  4. December 7, 2011 at 5:12 am

    i’ve read raj patel.i dont see how it applies to the competitive world of indian retailing however.
    the domestic courier has died? are you kidding me? 99% of my mail comes from local couriers.only international shipments come from the fedex/dhl
    you should read rama bijapurkar on how kiranas managed to withstand the big bazaars of the world.
    i am not a kirana entrepreneur,so dont ask me to ‘prove it’.history speaks for itself.people who cant run a business should ofcourse do something else.just proving that they are not made for the risks and creativity of entrepreneurship.most people are drones.and employees.walmart didnt make them such.entrepreneurship is not for the drones.
    why dont you explain countries like indonesia and mexico -which is still dominated by small retail.
    the whole purpose of retail is to provide value to the buyer.if the kirana cant,the big retail might.if they cant,well,let them slug it out.competition serves the consumer well.the consumer doesnt exist to feed the entrepreneur.

  5. vv
    December 8, 2011 at 4:31 pm

    Anurag, similar arguments were made about textile industry in 1991. Now 20 years later, how did the textile industry fare? Did the doomsday scenario come true?
    Same argument was made about pepsi and coke when they came back….they did end up buying local brands, but are you denied nimbu pani or jal jeera anywhere in India today? They are thriving and their reach has extended over time since pepsi came back!!
    And I could go on about telecom and huwawei issue..

    I hate to say this but having govt control on who sets up shop and how FDI is allowed/not is against the same Bharat-tantra that you have been developing. This is desert-bloc behavior since it assumes that the little guy will automatically be wiped out. It wants to save him from himself.
    In general, whenever the govt (desert-bloc people) released control, people were given choices and things improved. One set of people wailed about bad things happening, but another quiet set of people who intrinsically understood Bharat-tantra went ahead, faced the challenge and thrived.
    Hope enough of us who really took away this tantra from your writings fall into the second category and thrive. And hope you follow us there!!

    On another note, the best thing the elected govt can do for indians is to freely float the currency against all other rather than use a convoluted formula against a basket of major ones. But that would hurt the interests of their big industrialist buddies and help the artisans, so it makes sense why they will never do that till another crisis takes place.

  6. December 8, 2011 at 5:31 pm
    similar arguments were made about textile industry in 1991. Now 20 years later, how did the textile industry fare? Did the doomsday scenario come true?

    You are missing three important elements in the textiles story.

    1. One – The end of the Multi-Fibre Agreement (MFA) – which the Developed world phased out – kicking and screaming after nearly 50 years of discriminatory tariff systems.

    2. Two – The Technology Upgradation Fund was an GoI scheme to help Indian textiles become competitive. This finally cost about Rs.50,000 cr – over a period of 20 years, funded out of banks, development financial institutions and in many cases written off by banks, GoI and DFIs.

    3. Three – The WTO Agreement was hammered out which allowed an end to many discriminatory policies – and the India Govt. has been one of the biggest litigators at WTO, with a pretty good track record of successful litigation.

    Same argument was made about pepsi and coke when they came back….they did end up buying local brands,

    QED.

    And I could go on about telecom and huwawei issue.

    I am unsure about which part of the debate you are referring to here. Is it the security angle or is it any other angle?

    I hate to say this but having govt control on who sets up shop and how FDI is allowed/not is against the same Bharat-tantra that you have been developing.

    I think the more relevant point here is the road-map to implement Bharattantra.

    On another note, the best thing the elected govt can do for indians is to freely float the currency against all other rather than use a convoluted formula against a basket of major ones. But that would hurt the interests of their big industrialist buddies and help the artisans, so it makes sense why they will never do that till another crisis takes place.

    In a gambling den, where all the machines are fixed, the cards are marked, the shills are running riot, the chips keep changing in value – and you want an Innocent to walk in there – unaided and without help.

    I think the real discussion is how to eliminate Govt from all these spheres.

    The Indian Govt unfortunately cannot be the unilateral or alone in this.

    Not while the Rest of the World is running entire countries like Public Sector enterprises (in France, Germany, Japan, Korea, China) or Crony Capitalism (US, UK, China Korea, Japan).

  7. December 9, 2011 at 8:40 am

    My problem with FDI is the timing and the manner in which big-businesses are favoured over small in India.

    Any policy must be announced with a big timeline: What will happen 3 months from now, 1 – 2 years from now and 5 years from now.

    The govt’s current condition: The govt is desperate to bail out:
    1. Real estate companies. If 2GScam judgement comes, then DB realty, Unitech loose out. Causing widespread panic in financing, other real estate companies if their land-banks get liquidated. Depressing an already depressed market.

    2. Foreign Ccurrency Cconvertible Bond, and other foreign loan holders are suffering due to Rupee depreciation (Rs 52 per $ instead of Rs 44 per $). This was an attempt to cool off Rupee depreciation.

    3. No measures were taken to introduce free movement of goods across states. There are too many roadblocks to move food grains from Punjab to Tamil Nadu and vice versa. At the same time, it is so easy to export to other countries-mainly USA & Gulf where the exporters get a good margin for “Indian” food-rice, Dal, flour.

    Yes, even though India imports Dal for internal consumption, India’s grains go abroad just because there is a higher margin. Note the higher margin is created due to the low price at farm and the difficulty of an Indian trader to move it to the Indian Market. While the exporter-most often a politically connected fellow makes the money.

    My formula for 100% FDI would be to first let free movement of food and other items across India.

    After the above condition is met, then get FDI and see if the margins excite Foreign Investors.

  8. December 9, 2011 at 1:30 pm
    first let free movement of food and other items across India.

    This should have been obviously simple solution.

    To add to your point – While Big Business has seen committee after committee to simplify

    – Licence raj,
    – Customs procedures
    – Legal compliance

    The Small Business has seen no such efforts. The cost and burden of regulatory compliances ranges between 50%-200% of profits for small businesses. In many cases, it is simply impractical for small business to comply.

    And that is precisely the objective of this huge regulatory framework. Reduce competition from ‘pesky’ small businesses.

    Further choke credit flow to small businesses and you have a perfect ‘level playing field – for the big guys. All the small players are levelled and the Big Guys have a free run.

    So there are two problems.

    Big Foreign players and Big Domestic players.

    Forced to make an artificial choice between Big Foreign or Big Indian players, I will go with the Big Indian players.

    And this is the situation all over the world – a result of Desert Bloc polity.

  9. December 9, 2011 at 2:06 pm

    pravin :

    the domestic courier has died? are you kidding me? 99% of my mail comes from local couriers.only international shipments come from the fedex/dhl

    99% of your mail doesnt constitute 99% of the courier market.. see from larger perspective..

    you should read rama bijapurkar on how kiranas managed to withstand the big bazaars of the world.

    When people are beated to death, still they manage to survive their last breadth.. the question is not whether kiranas manage to withstand or not.. the question is whether its a fair play, to throw away indian retailers to big MNCs, abruptly without government support.. Does Indian Retail industry have same kind of freedom in foreign?

    Also, when currency difference is such huge 1$ = 50 Rs, how could there be fair play?

    Have you heard about Anti-Trust laws of europe.. particularly in germany, the government regulates fair game b/w big retailers and small ones.. walmart cannot sell products below market rate.. and that’s why they cannot establish there..

    Is there any such regulatory mechanism here?

    i am not a kirana entrepreneur,so dont ask me to ‘prove it’.history speaks for itself.people who cant run a business should ofcourse do something else.just proving that they are not made for the risks and creativity of entrepreneurship.most people are drones.and employees.walmart didnt make them such.entrepreneurship is not for the drones.

    its not that people cant run business.. the government makes them unable to run business..

    in India, every family is an entrepreneur.. and every jathi involved in traditional profession is entrepreneurial..

    It is to be noted, that the common kirana shop owner doesnt receive even 1% of support that corporate giants get ..

    the whole purpose of retail is to provide value to the buyer.if the kirana cant,the big retail might.if they cant,well,let them slug it out.competition serves the consumer well.the consumer doesnt exist to feed the entrepreneur.

    the purpose of retail is to trade goods as per bharat tantra.. you need to understand that in a society, every section of people counts.. not just consumers.. american consumerism has been a colossal failure..

    Also, the consumers need not always be correct.. i would like to get everything for free, and if some corporates manage to give me free, i would still get it.. but it doesnt mean , i am right or the corporates are right..

  10. December 9, 2011 at 2:42 pm
    the question is whether its a fair play … the purpose of retail is to trade goods as per bharat tantra.. you need to understand that in a society, every section of people counts.. not just consumers.. american consumerism has been a colossal failure.

    Also, the consumers need not always be correct.

    Senthil – this is a point especially well-made.

  11. vv
    December 9, 2011 at 5:21 pm

    Anurag, your reference to the “innocent” is as condescending as a desertie wanting to save the souls for jesus.
    I claim that that “innocent” is not really that “innocent” at all and if it turns out that he/she was really innocent, then yes, they will lose their all in the casino notwithstanding your attempts to “save”. I think the disagreement I have with your position is this: I have faith in the abilities of the “innocent” to deal with a free trade scenario and actually go ahead and exploit it to his advantage. You don’t have that faith, you think that he needs help & protection.

    My reference to telecom/huawei was that it started the price lowering game where all major equipment manufacturers overseas were dangled the carrot of a large market and underestimated the stick of price pressure. Pretty soon it converged to a point where indian telcos got their equipment AND found a provider for that cheap price. With this they ended up providing a very visible value to their customers, the value you can see practically anywhere in India today.
    What I am trying to say is : with trade you get leverage…when you ban foreign retailers, you have no leverage. When you have them operating in your regulatory area, you will have leverage because those foreign retailers are here to make a buck. IF they don’t make a profit, they go away on their on. They will not stay. If they do, they have to play by the rules here and you get your leverage on them.

    Or, maybe this is a defect of your concept of Bharat-tantra (by the way, I do not believe it is ancient. You are the originator of this idea, time to take credit!!). Your exposition has captial, land and labor, but does not refer to how one is “traded” for the other. Or of how “free will” that trade is performed. If you do, then foreign FDI in retail makes good sense.
    How about extending your concept to the persian words of capital, people, land AND free trade? Just a thought.
    Best Regards.

  12. December 9, 2011 at 6:06 pm
    your reference to the “innocent” is as condescending as a desertie wanting to save the souls for jesus. I claim that that “innocent” is not really that “innocent” at all and if it turns out that he/she was really innocent, then yes, they will lose their all in the casino notwithstanding your attempts to “save”.

    Let us be real.

    I am under no illusion that I cannot save myself – leave alone anyone else. There is no ‘saviour complex’ working here. It is just that when anyone is being executed, even the Desert Bloc grants him the right to know why he is dying. So, all that I am doing is understand why I (and others) are suffering – and dying.

    free trade scenario

    Free trade is an oxymoron. Trade can only be free. How can 5 crore (50 million) Indian agriculturists compete with 50,000 US farmers who are getting US$20 billion in subsidies. As I paraphrase Kamal Nath, this is Indian agriculturist against the US Fed.

    Using Bretton Woods mechanisms, the US economy has the advantage of US$50 trillion (25 times Indian GDP) of overvalued dollars. There is no ‘free’ or ‘trade’ here.

    I think the disagreement I have with your position is this: I have faith in the abilities of the “innocent” to deal with a free trade scenario and actually go ahead and exploit it to his advantage. You don’t have that faith, you think that he needs help & protection.

    The Indian entrepreneur has proven himself many times over – and I have the greatest respect for him. If you search for ‘entrepreneur’ in my posts, you will see me dripping with respect for them. All the more, why we should ‘levelize’ the field.

    by the way, I do not believe it is ancient. You are the originator of this idea, time to take credit!!

    I wish this was true.

    Your exposition has captial, land and labor, but does not refer to how one is “traded” for the other. Or of how “free will” that trade is performed. If you do, then foreign FDI in retail makes good sense.

    This “trade” between captial, land and labor you refer to, is from a position of concentration of capital. In Bharattantra such a situation will be an exception – and not a rule.

    How about extending your concept to the persian words of capital, people, land AND free trade? Just a thought.

    Jar, Jan Jameen are not persian words – but Indian words. They are not the same as land, labour and capital. In Bharattantra, Jar, Jan Jameen are granted complete exemption from State regulation – and everone is given equitable access to these three factors.

    In Desert Bloc, usage of these 3 are concentrated in the hands of the few.

    As I see it, the fundamental ‘disagreement’ starts when you talk of ‘free trade’. In today’s distorted economic systems, there is neither freedom nor trade.

  13. vv
    December 13, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    Anuraag,
    1. The roots of the words, their first usage, the first idea of putting them together all point to the persian origin. Your blog triggered the research on my part and I have asked you for references before as to where you first heard it. The words are persian, there is no indian equivalent I could find. If you do, please let me know. What this means is that these words entered vocabulary only after interaction in recent time… turk invasion into india at the earliest, maybe.
    The earliest public reference I find from Indian sources is that of Vajpayee taunting Nehru about his china war. And in this context, his usage & meaning was closer to persian/dari usage than the context you use it for.
    Again, it is not the words, its the framework you are building which I think is the point of your blog. But claiming that these words are of Indian origin is not accurate given that (a) it is obvious even to a native hindi speaker that these words are of foreign origin and (b) there is no such phrase or concept that I can find in languages/works from south of the Vindhyas. I say this because if such a formulation existed, it would have been preserved from the islamic ravages that sindhu – ganga plains areas experienced.

    2. the biggest enemy of indian agriculturists is not the US farmer or the US govt. It is the indian govt. The 5 crore indian farmers have no need to compete if US farmers are flooding the indian market with a cheaper alternative. I do not see that happening. Again, you are worried and want to save the indian farmer while I think these agriculturists will do just fine and might do very well if not for the ‘saving’ types, both you and the indian govt. Much more than the subsidies to US farmers, it is NGREA that is wreaking havoc with the farming model. Your mention of respect for indian entrepreneur or farmer is not relevant to my argument that these two types simply need to be left alone to do what they want to do.

    By the way, following through your argument: if bharat-tantra if fine when it is a closed system and everybody signs on to it. But if it ever comes in contact with a desert bloc system, it follows that due to principles of concentration of power/wealth, the bharat-tantra system will eventually be the loser and cannot exist in any viable fashion.
    Could you write about cases where bharat-tantra prevailed over desert bloc types?
    Thanks

  14. December 13, 2011 at 7:22 pm
    the biggest enemy of indian agriculturists is not the US farmer or the US govt.

    Biggest or Big enemy is a quibble.

    As long as it is clear that the the US farmer and the US govt are enemies of the Indian agriculture, we may need to buffer the system from such external threats.

    The 5 crore indian farmers have no need to compete if US farmers are flooding the indian market with a cheaper alternative. I do not see that happening.

    I suggest you do some reading and research on PL-480. PL-480 grain did much damage to Indian agriculture – and in many parts of the world.

    Again, you are worried and want to save the indian farmer while I think these agriculturists will do just fine and might do very well if not for the ‘saving’ types, both you and the indian govt.

    Probably you forget history.

    Pls remember that for most of 20th century Indian agriculture failed – due to colonial policies of the British Raj – and subsidized agriculture systems of the West from 1950-1980.

    The last 30 years of success that Indian agriculture has enjoyed has given you a false sense of complacency. Knowing of 80 years of droughts, famines and shortages may have heightened my sense of danger. Given a choice between complacency and danger, I will go with the latter.

    You want to ‘open’ up the (say) cosmetic industry to 100% FDI, it may be alright.

    If it is agriculture, any risk is a risk too-o big.

    it is NGREA that is wreaking havoc with the farming model

    The anti-NREGA case seems to be strong as of now.

    Since NREGA is only around 5 years old, any significant reading of dangers, benefits, damages of NREGA may be premature.

    While I have always been anti-NREGA type Statist impulses, it may now be worthwhile to take a look at NREGA a few years down the road.

    By the way, following through your argument: if bharat-tantra if fine when it is a closed system and everybody signs on to it. But if it ever comes in contact with a desert bloc system, it follows that due to principles of concentration of power/wealth, the bharat-tantra system will eventually be the loser and cannot exist in any viable fashion.

    I have never said, implied or believed the above idea to be true. In fact I have said the opposite.

    Concentration of wealth does pose a danger to humanity in general – and not just Bharattantra. In fact Bharattantra has best record of success against this problem.

    The many successes of Bharattantra vs Desert Bloc is given in the index table at the end of the Bharattantra post. If you still need some links, pls confirm, I will provide the same to you.

  15. August 27, 2012 at 5:36 pm

  16. September 23, 2012 at 5:38 pm
    1. Pravin Varma
      all good economic analysis should be done from the point of view of the consumer alone.the producer is irrelevant. chanakya knew that the way to riches was imports and not exports the export driven path to riches is wrong and a recent socialist fabrication.if foreigners want to provide FREE or cheap goods to indians,we should take it.if nature or god provided us a bounty we would take it and not bother about who is producing it.in anycase,the banias of india are underistimated .neither should they be romanticized -not all banias are fit to be kiranawallas.those who are good will prosper.those who arent ,are better of as sales folks working at big stores
  17. ajamk
    April 5, 2013 at 2:22 pm

    zar and zameen are persian words not indian. Plus I’ve never heard of this Zar,Jan,Zameen idea before. I don’t think this is a common saying.

  18. August 21, 2013 at 8:45 am

    Excellent. few points

    A. US biggies are powerful and are a state unto themselves, but do not discount the fact that even after Big retailers come there is no way that smallers one’s will go away. Infact the small ones are more convenient and trusted by a lot people.

    B. Now you can talk about big pockets of big retailers. True. But since it is as such sensitive do you think that they will be so antagonistic outright. I don’t think so.

    C. Lastly no one is quite sure as to what will be the outcome of allowing the biggies in retails. One benefit that surely comes to mind is less wastage of food.

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