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Indian Polity’s Bigger Headache: BJP or Congress …?

November 13, 2012 5 comments

So-called internal matters of the BJP are in facts issues of importance. Global importance.

BJP after losing power has been a strange case of disintegration - compared to the BJP before gaining power  |  Satish Acharya cartoon on Wednesday, October 26, 2011  titled Gadkari wants to prove his political fitness...

BJP after losing power has been a strange case of disintegration – compared to the BJP before gaining power | Satish Acharya cartoon on Wednesday, October 26, 2011 titled Gadkari wants to prove his political fitness…

There Is No Alternative

From 1947 to 1987, for the first forty years of modern India, Congress was the behemoth that dominated Indian politics. For a brief two years, a combined opposition had managed to unseat the Congress in 1977-1979 – only to fall apart amidst power-jockeying.

Probably, one man changed that.

Cutting Edge

Lal Krishna Advani.

In 1986, Advani a second rung leader of BJP, was appointed president, though not much was expected from him. BJP then, under the shadow of a lone-star leader,  AB Vajpayee, was a fringe party in national Indian politics, that had been without power for nearly forty years.

At the cusp of a changing world-order, BJP under Advani became the force in Indian politics. Instead of Congress aligning with a declining Soviet Union, BJP proposed closer ties with the West. Slow-paced reforms after Bombay High, by the Congress was challenged by BJP’s agenda for faster liberalization. The Congress stance of apologetic secularism, after granting Pakistan to Indian Muslims, was roundly lampooned by the BJP.

Events were on Advani’s side.

Power competition has become a subject to regional-tribal instincts. Between Gujarati Modi and Marathi Gadakari.  |  Satish Acharya cartoon on October 26 2012

Power competition has become a subject to regional-tribal instincts. Between Gujarati Modi and Marathi Gadakari. | Satish Acharya cartoon on October 26 2012

When Things Go Right

Soviet Union collapsed. The Islamic world, under Western dominance rebelled. Starting with the Iranian Revolution under Khomeini, the Islamic world took a turn towards fundamentalism – unleashing a reactionary Islamic demonization by the West. Reforms and liberalization paid off – and Pakistan imploded.

A Partition-era refugee from what is now Pakistan, Advani had few pre-conceived notions on politics. Taking a leaf from an Andhra politician, NT Rama Rao, Advani went on his first rath yatra on Septemeber 25th, 1987. NT Rama Rao had earlier wrested AP from Congress strangehold with a nearly year-long mass-contact campaign, in his chaitanya ratham.

Two years after his rath yatra, BJP supported the formaton of a non-Congress government under VP Singh. BJP had arrived. Congress was decimated. After Advani, Congress has not won an electoral majority for 25 years now.

Post-Soviet World

Between 1986 to 1991, for the Indian Republic it was trial by fire.

In 1986, Advani became BJP party president and Rajiv Gandhi was a democratic dictator with a brute majority in the Parliament. ND Tiwari, Pranab Mukherjee and VP Singh were seen as dynamic Finance Ministers who were liberalizing India after Bombay High.

Licence Raj was being dismantled. Shoots of a new India could be seen – with Indian companies charging in all directions. Stocks markets were in a frenzy. The 1977 George Fernandes industrial policy was effective at buffering Indian companies from Big Brother multinationals.

Companies like HCL, WIPRO, pioneered Unix-based systems – among the first in the world.

Bofors and Soviet implosion changed India forever. Rajiv Gandhi lost the election in 1989 – with BJP helping form a minority VP-Singh government. In 1991, Soviet Union collapsed. Indian foreign policy lay in tatters. India itself was on the brink of a financial default.

Election results returned a hung parliament.

RSS seniors seem to feel threatened. After foisting irrelevant leaders on BJP, they wonder why BJP is revolting?  |  Cartoon by Surendra on November 19, 2011; source & courtesy - thehindu.com

RSS seniors seem to feel threatened. After foisting irrelevant leaders on BJP, they wonder why BJP is revolting? | Cartoon by Surendra on November 19, 2011; source & courtesy – thehindu.com

Crisis after Disaster

BJP under Advani’s leadership stablized a minority government. Finally, a BJP government was formed – from 19 March 1998 to 22 May 2004. These were crucial years. A stable coalition government, a first in India, lasted a full term. It presided over India’s affairs in a very fluid world.

It was during this period that India initiated, a different relationship with Russia. As the more stable partner, India defined this more equal relationship that saved Russia’s defence industry from ruin. In turn India itself benefited by getting defence products on the cheap, more suitable for India’s requirements.

India also created a global industry, in which semi-finished Russian armaments were fitted with advanced third-party technologies to make these products comparable to the best in the world. India’s frontline fighter, Su-30 MKI is one such example.

No surprises then when the Russian ambassador landed at Advani’s home, to wish him well on his 85th birthday.

Russian Ambassador to India Alexander M Kadakin bends down to LK Advani on Advani's 85th birthday on Nov 08, 2012 |  Image source  PTI; courtesy - outlookindia.com

Russian Ambassador to India Alexander M Kadakin bends down to LK Advani on Advani’s 85th birthday on Nov 08, 2012 | Image source PTI; courtesy – outlookindia.com

In a rare gesture, Russian ambassador to India Alexander M Kadakin today broke away from diplomatic protocol and touched the feet of BJP veteran L K Advani while visiting the leader to wish him on his 85th birthday.

Such a gesture is virtually unheard of in diplomatic circles as most diplomats and heads of state or government only go to the extent of folding their hands in a ‘namaste’ to wish an Indian leader. Shaking of hands is the norm in such meetings.

Kadakin, an Indophile, conversed in chaste Hindi with Advani throughout his visit at the Prithviraj Road-residence.

via Russian ambassador touches Advani’s feet – Times Of India.

The Russian ambassador is not a private person, who can claim indulgence. He is governed by diplomatic protocol – and represents his country. So, when he pays respects to Advani, it is a gesture of far-reaching symbolism.

On one side.

Rubber Hits The Road

On the other side, when events conspire to show a different side of BJP, it become a matter of national importance – even though BJP is not in power.

Ever since anti-corruption activist-turned-politician Arvind Kejriwal trained his guns on Mr. Gadkari for the alleged wrongdoings by a company owned by him, there have been murmurs within the BJP that an influential section within is targeting Mr. Gadkari. However, it is for the first time that any one has pointed fingers at Mr. Modi.

The rumblings within the BJP surfaced after BJP Rajya Sabha MP Ram Jethmalani and his son Mahesh Jethmalani went public saying Mr. Gadkari should immediately step down from his post as the charges against him were damaging to the party.

The senior Jethmalani claimed the backing of other party leaders like Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha and Shatrughan Sinha. The campaign within the BJP against Mr. Gadkari is widely perceived as a power struggle among senior leaders with an eye on the 2014 elections.

via The Hindu : News / National : Gadkari rejects ‘insinuation’ made by RSS member, says party united behind Modi.

In fact not just national importance – but international importance. Unlike what Congress says, these are not the internal matters of the BJP.

Envoys from 20 Arab countries met BJP President Nitin Gadkari today to discuss his party’s plan in the forthcoming Parliament session, it’s agenda on the internal and external affairs if it comes to power, and relations with the Arab world and India’s neighbours.

The diplomats led by Moroccan Ambassador Larbi Reffouh, who is the acting president of the Arab Group, met Gadkari at his residence here.

The Arab Group met Gadkari to discuss the BJP’s plans for the forthcoming winter session of Parliament that begins on November 22, as also the party’s vision on the present internal situation in India.

The grouping was also keen on knowing the BJP’s internal and external affairs agenda in case it is voted to power in the next general elections.

The ambassadors also wanted to learn about the main Opposition’s attitude on relations with the Arab World and India’s neighbours.

via Envoys from 20 Arab countries meet BJP President Nitin Gadkari – Economic Times.

The BJP-RSS combine, popularly known as the sangh combine, have projected themselves as proponents of an akhand Bharat (Greater India), movers and shakers of Hindutva, and ultra-nationalists.

Imagine the surprise, when a national daily reports

Competitive politics will have some road-kills - like Sanjay Joshi. This cannot become a rationale for negative politics of Gujarati vs Marathi  |  Manjul's Cartoon: Narendra Modi removes Sanjay Joshi's posters on 6.10.2012Competitive politics will have some road-kills - like Sanjay Joshi. This cannot become a rationale for negative politics of Gujarati vs Marathi  |  Manjul's Cartoon: Narendra Modi removes Sanjay Joshi's posters on 6.10.2012

Competitive politics will have some road-kills – like Sanjay Joshi. This cannot become a rationale for negative politics of Gujarati vs Marathi | Manjul’s Cartoon: Narendra Modi removes Sanjay Joshi’s posters on 6.10.2012

For several weeks now that there is a grand Marathi versus Uttar Bharatiya divide a la Bal Thackeray and Raj Thackeray within the RSS and its organisational wings, with RSS sarsnaghchalak Mohan Bhagwat believing that north Indian leaders are skimming the cream for work really done by Maharashtrian pracharaks in various states that brought them to power (for example: Sanjay Joshi versus Narendra Modi in Gujarat).

That is why Gadkari is still supported by RSS leaders but he should know by now that this is a fight to the finish for leaders like LK Advani and Modi, who still hope to be prime minister.

It is very clear that the anti-Gadkari lobby in the BJP is trying to make the RSS’s position on their choice of BJP president unsustainable by the day and I wonder how long it will take for Reshim Bagh to cave in. But the pro-Advani-Modi lobbies in the BJP are making a serious mistake if they think a little thing like foot-in-the-mouth disease or some as yet unproven allegations, however serious they may appear, is going to deter Bhagwat from his chosen path So I would watch Goa chief minister Manohar Parrikar rather closely – yes, the very same person who had called Advani a `rancid pickle’

via A season of gaffes – Hindustan Times.

This entire speculation gained credibility, when MG Vaidya, a unofficial spokesman of the RSS joined the debate weighing in on Gadkari’s side. Vaidya, the Nagpur-based ex-chief editor of Tarun Bharat, the RSS publication, in his Marathi-blog asserted that the anti-Gadkari campaign started in Gujarat.

Original Marathi text

एकाच व्यक्तीच्या एकाच वक्तव्यात, गडकरींनी जावे आणि मोदींना प्रधानमंत्री करावे, असे उल्लेख आल्यामुळे, गडकरीविरोधी कारस्थानाचे केंद्र गुजरातमध्ये आहे, असा संशय कुणाच्याही मनात येणे स्वाभाविक आहे आणि गुजरात म्हटले की, मग नरेंद्र मोदी यांच्याकडेच संशयाच्या सुईचे टोक जाणार.

Hindi Translation provided by the author /publication on the original blog.

एक ही व्यक्ति के एक ही वक्तव्य में, गडकरी जाए और मोदी को प्रधानमंत्री करें, ऐसा उल्लेख आने के कारण, गडकरी विरोधी षड्यंत्र का केन्द्र गुजरात में है, ऐसा संदेह मन में आना स्वाभाविक है और गुजरात कहने के बाद, फिर संदेह की उंगली नरेन्द्र मोदी की ओर ही मुडेगी.

via RSS Veteran MG Vaidya blog article on BJP issue: भाजपा की अ-स्वस्थता: मा. गो. वैद्य | Vishwa Samvada Kendra.

English reportage

In his blog, Vaidya has said the “needle of suspicion in the campaign against BJP president Nitin Gadkari points to Gujarat BJP and Chief Minister Narendra Modi.”

He also noted that “Ram Jethmalani had in one breath said he is seeking the resignation of Gadkari and that he also wanted to see Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister in 2014.”

While both L K Advani and Gadkari have publicly stated that they don’t have Prime Ministerial ambitions, Vaidya, a former spokesman of RSS, said he “hasn’t read anywhere that Narendra Modi has denied reports of his ambition to become the Prime Minister.”

Vaidya today stood by his remark, saying, “It is my opinion and because Jethmalani has combined two things demanding Gadkari’s resignation and making Narendra Modi as PM, I think that the needle of suspicion goes to Gujarat.

“I did not say that, I just said that needle of suspicion goes to Modi and that raises suspicion if Jethmalani is entitled to his own point of view, I am also entitled to my point of view and RSS has nothing to do with it.”

via Vaidya blames Modi for “campaign” against Gadkari.

Narendra Modi may be a great demon or a superb chief minister. That question for this discussion is irrelevant. However, if his candidature is being decided on the basis of Gujarati vs Marathi axis, RSS deserves much greater contempt than what they have got till date.


Gandhiji: Indians Must Be Thankful to Nobel Committee for Not Giving Him the Award

November 11, 2012 1 comment

As Euro-power declines and Nobel propaganda becomes less effective, to gain fresh legitimacy, the Nobel Committee may try and foist a posthumous Nobel on Gandhiji.

A portrait of Gandhiji by Illustrator: Alexey Kurbatov Location: Moscow, Russia

A portrait of Gandhiji by Illustrator: Alexey Kurbatov Location: Moscow, Russia

Is this true?

British administrators, it is believed, ‘influenced’ the Nobel Committee against a Nobel Prize for Gandhiji. Was the Nobel Committee even close to giving Gandhiji the Peace Prize?

So grateful …

What ever the truth, I am grateful to the British Raj, all the British administrators and bureaucrats, politicians who managed the Nobel award process – to deny Gandhiji the Nobel prize.

Nobel prize, the committee says cannot be awarded posthumously – though some 13 years later, the UN Secretary General, Dag Hammarskjold was given the Nobel 6 months after his death.

Before that, the Nobel prize for Literature was awarded posthumously to Erik Axel Karlfeldt in 1931. Nobel Foundation Statutes were revised in 1974, to create a justification why the award cannot be awarded posthumously – unless death happened after the announcement.

According to the statutes of the Nobel Foundation in force at that time, the Nobel Prize could, under certain circumstances, be awarded posthumously. Thus it was possible to give Gandhi the prize. However, Gandhi did not belong to an organisation.

So silly

It would have been so silly to know Gandhiji as a Nobel prize winner.

Along with terrorist-freedom fighter like Yasser Arafat (1994), terrorist-politician Menachem Begin (1978). Where would Gandhiji be, if he was clubbed with a clown-politician like Jimmy Carter (2002). Imagine Gandhiji rubbing shoulders with Barack Obama (2009), a non-entity when he won the prize. Or a crowning gag like EU (2012), as a peace prize winner. Gandhiji, staunchly against religious-conversions in the company of a do-gooder like Agnes Gonxha Bojaxhiu (1979) – promoted by the Vatican, as Mother Teresa.

Or a war-monger like Henry Kissinger (1973).

Earlier, in 1945, Cordell Hull, who in 1939, was instrumental in refusing entry to some 950 German-Jewish refugees, was given the Nobel prize in 1945. Hull even co-authored a pamphlet, calling for bar on entry of European-Jews to America.

A Nobel committee member’s expression of regret for repeatedly overlooking Mahatma Gandhi for the Peace Prize has left his grandson Gopalkrishna Gandhi and historians distinctly underwhelmed. “It really does not behove us to be lamenting the absence of a Nobel for Gandhi, when the committee itself has apologised for this so many times and when Mandela, the Dalai Lama and Aung San Suu Kyi have accepted the Peace Prize in his name.”

Nobel committee member and Conservative Norwegian politician Kaci Kullmann was quoted by a TV news channel on Thursday as saying ignoring Gandhi was “one of the greatest mistakes” of the Nobel.

Gandhi was nominated in 1937, 1938, 1939, 1947 and, finally, a few days before his assassination in January 1948 for the Peace Prize.

“What people forget is that at the time, the idea that the Nobel peace prize would go to a non-European was utterly absurd,” said Mihir Bose, author of Raj, Secrets and Revolution, a biography of Subhash Chandra Bose.

“After all, when Tagore was awarded the Nobel, Rudyard Kipling was furious…”

via Nobel apology leaves Bapu’s grandson unimpressed – Hindustan Times.


Kejriwal Misrepresents

November 9, 2012 Leave a comment

Kejriwal’s press conference is a defeatist approach to a global problem. Factually and conceptually wrong, Kejriwal has an ’empty’ agenda.

While Robert Vadra calls India a ‘banana republic’, Kejriwal is trying his best to prove Robert Vadra’s description becomes reality. Kejriwal has just finished a press conference where he has made some serious allegations of black-money abroad.

For now, no transcript is available or any links. Below is my summary of the points that Kejriwal makes.

  1. Yumm-Rika is right. Indian Government is incompetent.
    • If this right, what is the status on the US$10 trillion DoD scam. This amounts to about 80% of US GDP – by one department in a short period of time. As Kejriwal should know, the DoD-GOTUS has not obtained a clean audit report for decades now.
    • Moral of the Story: – Corruption is a global story – and more taxes, more laws, more police, will not solve this. Less power to the State is a good starting point.
  2. UBS came running and gave details to Yumm-Rika.
    • Blatantly untrue.
    • The GOTUS had to institute legal proceedings, diplomatically push the Swiss Govt. – and obtained this info. after considerable effort.
    • Read this anti-Swiss actions by the GOTUS alongwith the passing of the NDAA Acts. This probably points towards closing all doors and windows for US citizens, before some kind of gold-confiscation by GOTUS is done. Obama has won his second-term – and will probably do this in the next 12-36 months.
    • Moral of the Story: – This is maya. Look at things a little deeper.
  3. Hawalatransactions.
    • For money to be given in India does not need hawala. There are perfectly legal methods to do this.
    • Moral Of The Story: – Check with IT, Finance Ministry and banks how this can be done. Talk to the guilty party also.
  4. At the beginning of the press conference he makes a defeatist statement that we will never get our money back. But just before Prashant Bhushan starts off, Kejriwal asserts that this money comes back as FII /FDI investment.
    • Silly Indians keep money in Swiss accounts these days. India is the best place to keep your money these days – black, white, accounted, unaccounted.
    • Moral of The Story: – Three important points. Data. Data. Data.
  5. Rs.6000-Rs.7000 crores abroad. And not 25,00,00,000 crores as per CBI estimates.
    • The amount of money that Indians supposedly have in foreign banks exceeds our GDP. Any economic calculation will tell you that this is not feasible.
    • Moral of The Story: – Data. Data. Data.
  6. Why were the small guys targeted.
    • Yes. The small guys are always the first to be hit. And this is the reality of Desert Bloc polity. This is the only sensible point that Kejriwal makes.

Answer and solution – Bharattantra.

Without Comment: Pakistan general warns civilians not to ‘assume more than one’s due role’

November 6, 2012 1 comment

The Army that ‘owns’ Pakistan has to be weaned away from believing that Pakistan is their fiefdom.

The Tragedy In Pakistan  |  by Zahoor (August 2011). – The Express Tribune

The Tragedy In Pakistan | by Zahoor (August 2011). – The Express Tribune

Pakistan’s powerful military on Monday issued what analysts said was a warning to the country’s civilian institutions not to push their authority too far, after the country’s high court issued a series of rulings holding the armed forces to account for human rights abuses and political meddling.

Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the chief of army staff, issued the warning in a statement that also seemed to be aimed at the government and the news media.

“As a nation, we are passing through a defining phase,” Kayani said. “Weakening of the institutions and trying to assume more than one’s due role will set us back.”

The current civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari has been in power since 2008, when military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf handed authority to it.

The transition from military to civilian rule has not been smooth, with the government, the judiciary and the military all jockeying for the levers of power under the new democratic setup. In particular, the judiciary, led by activist Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, has challenged the authority of both the government and the military and aggressively tried to hold them to account.

Elections are due in the first half of next year, which could see an unprecedented transition of power from one elected government to another.

In a country where the military previously has claimed the right solely to determine the “national interest,” analysts here were unanimous in their assessment that Kayani’s statement, issued by the army’s public relations arm in English and Urdu, the national language, was highly significant, even if its language was indirect and oblique.

“No individual or institution has the monopoly to decide what is right or wrong in defining the ultimate national interest. It should emerge only through a consensus,” said the general, whose term in office ends in November 2013. “Any effort which wittingly or unwittingly draws a wedge between the people and armed forces of Pakistan undermines the larger national interest.”

Last month, the Supreme Court issued a withering judgment on the “illegal” role played in the 1990 elections by the army chief and the head of the military’s Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency at the time, who had helped form a political coalition that won that election. The court ruled that the two retired generals must be prosecuted.

In recent hearings on hundreds of citizens who have disappeared into the presumed hands of the armed forces and their spy agencies, the court has humiliated the military, hearing evidence that it was behind the abductions and subsequent extrajudicial killings.

Coincidently (sic), the chief justice also made a speech Monday in which he said that Pakistan was evolving. “Gone are the days when stability and security of the country was defined in terms of number of missiles and tanks as a manifestation of hard power available,” Chaudhry said.

via Pakistan general warns civilians not to ‘assume more than one’s due role’ | McClatchy – Some links supplied.


Development of Mach 7 Missiles: Russia & India Announce Progress

November 5, 2012 1 comment

The fact that US or NATO have no counter or no competition to Brahmos, is rarely admitted or accepted.

Free Media of the Free World

Will ‘Free Media’ of the West tells its readers, low-and-dirty facts? Not if it matters.

Sometime back, we had the case where even the venerable nytimes.com, took pre-clearance from CIA before publishing a critique on POTUS.

Or take another instance.

No Counter or Competition

The respected wired.com magazine spins a long story, without ever the reader being told that US or NATO do not have missile that can compete or counter the Brahmos missile.

Though it must be said, that the short-range Brahmos is a purely defensive weapon – invaluable to India and poses no threat to the US or NATO.

The Brahmos missile was half-developed by Russia (as Onyx) – and Indian defence technologists have made it further into a air-sea-land missile, with superior guidance and firing systems.

And now

Russia and India are already testing a new supersonic cruise missile, which is pretty cool, we guess. But going Mach 2 or thereabouts isn’t all that fast these days. Everything has to go faster. That’s why the two countries are also developing a hypersonic missile capable of traveling more than five times the speed of sound. Problem is even building the engines, let alone missiles, is extremely hard to do.

If it works, the missile — called the BrahMos 2 — is expected to travel up to Mach 7 from sea-, land- and air-launched platforms. And it’s supposed to be ready for flight tests in 2017

Sivathanu Pillai, CEO of India-based BraHmos Aerospace said in Moscow on Wednesday. Pillai also suggested the missile already exists, and that BrahMos has conducted ”lab tests [of the missile] at the speed of 6.5 Mach.”

It will be interesting to see the extent to which Brahmos 2 might draw on previous Russian hypersonic research and development.”

There’s the sheer heat generated by traveling at such speeds. And getting a scramjet into missile-form is even harder. You’d need sophisticated guidance tools, sensors and navigation equipment to keep it in the air and to its target, while also making it small enough to launch from a conventional aircraft. And you still have to solve the propulsion problems.

Just ask the Pentagon. Its experimental pizza-shaped hypersonic weapon capsule, Falcon, failed its test in August before plunging into the Pacific Ocean. The Air Force’s scramjet — the X-51 WaveRider – has a better record, but was bruised by a test last summer when its engine failed. The Air Force is pressing on, however, with a new hypersonic missile for its stealth fighters. The Army’s Advanced Hypersonic Weapon has also been successfully tested, but it’s nowhere close to a deployable weapon.

Hypersonic and scramjet research in the United States also goes back to the early days of the Cold War. But it wasn’t until 1991 when Russia became the first country to successfully test a scramjet. More tests followed, and with the help of NASA, Russia successfully flew a hydrogen-fueled scramjet at up to Mach 6.4 over Kazakhstan in 1998. In 2001, U.S. defense analysts took notice of a mysterious ultra-high-speed Russian missile test suspected of being powered by a scramjet. The first successful solo American scramjet tests didn’t occur until the 2000s, though they were some of the first tests to use engines that operated entirely as scramjets. The earlier Russian tests were hybrid ramjets — slightly different, with oxygen only moving at subsonic speeds inside the engine.

Also, don’t think it’s a coincidence that Russia now wants a hypersonic missile of its own. Nor are cruise missiles the only area where Russia is afraid of falling behind even more than they already are.

via Russia Preps Mach 7 Missiles — With India’s Help | Danger Room | Wired.com.

Now the supersonic missile will be upgraded to a hypersonic bolt.


Categories: Europe, India, Politics, USA Tags: , ,

Population Control in China: Govt. Think-tank Calls For Immediate End To One-child Policy

November 3, 2012 1 comment

For four years now, various Chinese groups and publications, have proposed abolition of China’s one-child policy. For the Chinese State, population control cannot be a subordinate policy.

 

A caricature of China's one-child policy. Creative credits not available.

A caricature of China’s one-child policy. Creative credits not available.

While the Indian Government by blaming Indian society or female feticide, think-tanks backed by Chinese Government have clearly and squarely blamed the faulty intervention of the State into family lives.

This population planning policies were implemented in India and China under pressure of World Bank, IMF, USAID etc. Western aid was clearly and explicitly tied to family planning targets.

The real impact of birth control. Image source & courtesy - global-sisterhood-network.org

The real impact of birth control. Image source & courtesy – global-sisterhood-network.org

Though the government credits the policy with preventing hundreds of millions of births and helping lift countless families out of poverty, it is reviled by many ordinary people. The strict limits have led to forced abortions and sterilizations, even though such measures are illegal. Couples who flout the rules face hefty fines, seizure of their property and loss of their jobs.

Many demographers argue that the policy has worsened the country’s aging crisis by limiting the size of the young labor pool that must support the large baby boom generation as it retires. They say it has contributed to the imbalanced sex ratio by encouraging families to abort baby girls, preferring to try for a male heir.

The government recognizes those problems and has tried to address them by boosting social services for the elderly. It has also banned sex-selective abortion and rewarded rural families whose only child is a girl.

Many today also see the birth limits as outdated, a relic of the era when housing, jobs and food were provided by the state.

via Chinese think tank urges end to one-child policy.

Graphic source & courtesy - wsj.com

Graphic source & courtesy – wsj.com

Chairman Mao in China and Sanjay Gandhi in India were some of the people who were convinced on the ‘merits’ of this State intervention in family life.

A Chinese government think tank is urging the country’s leaders to start phasing out its one-child policy immediately and allow two children for every family by 2015, a daring proposal to do away with the unpopular policy.

Some demographers see the timeline put forward by the China Development Research Foundation as a bold move by the body, which is close to the central leadership. Others warn that the gradual approach, if implemented, would still be insufficient to help correct the problems that China’s strict birth limits have created.

Xinhua news agency said the foundation recommended a two-child policy in some provinces from this year and a nationwide two-child policy by 2015. It proposes all birth limits be dropped by 2020, Xinhua reported.

“China has paid a huge political and social cost for the policy, as it has resulted in social conflict, high administrative costs and led indirectly to a long-term gender imbalance at birth,” Xinhua said, citing the report.

However, it remains unclear whether Chinese leaders are ready to take up the recommendations. China’s National Population and Family Planning Commission had no immediate comment.

Known to many as the “one-child policy,” China’s actual rules are more complicated. The government limits most urban couples to one child and allows two children for rural families if their first-born is a girl. There are numerous other exceptions as well.

via Chinese government think tank calls for immediate end to one-child policy – Taipei Times.

China's population is reducing with lesser births than deaths. This trend will soon mean that fewer workers will pay more taxes and take care of more elderly than ever before.  GDP on horizontal scale and fertility on vertical axis. Graphic credits not available.

China’s population is reducing with lesser births than deaths. This trend will soon mean that fewer workers will pay more taxes and take care of more elderly than ever before. GDP on horizontal scale and fertility on vertical axis. Graphic credits not available.

More recently the Chinese Government has linked climate change with population control – which further led to development of the Carnegie Institute to label Genghis Khan’s massacres as acts of benevolence.

According to Zhao Baige, vice-minister of National Population and Family Planning Commission of China (NPFPC), as a result of the family planning policy, China has seen 400 million fewer births, which has resulted in 18 million fewer tons of CO2 emissions a year, Zhao said.

The UN report projected that if the global population would remain 8 billion by the year 2050 instead of a little more than 9 billion according to medium-growth scenario, “it might result in 1 billion to 2 billion fewer tons of carbon emissions”.

Meanwhile, she said studies have also shown that family planning programs are more efficient in helping cut emissions, citing research by Thomas Wire of London School of Economics that states: “Each $7 spent on basic family planning would reduce CO2 emissions by more than one ton” whereas it would cost $13 for reduced deforestation, $24 to use wind technology, $51 for solar power, $93 for introducing hybrid cars and $131 electric vehicles.

She admitted that China’s population program is not without consequences, as the country is entering the aging society fast and facing the problem of gender imbalance.

She said some 85 percent of the Chinese women in reproductive age use contraceptives, the highest rate in the world. This has been achieved largely through education and improvement of people’s lives, she said.

via Population control called key to deal.

If the planet is your concern, abortion comes later. Before that you are a part of the excess population. Kill yourself.

If the planet is your concern, abortion comes later. Before that you are a part of the excess population. Kill yourself.

Much before China’s draconian one-child policy, there is a long history of population control.

Tyrene White in her book China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005

draws on a wealth of diverse data from the political literature relating to internal reforms (principally rural economic reforms), and to the mass campaigns from the beginning of the 1950s to the end of the 1990s. She brings together numerous local regulations, official circulars, and articles drawn from the Chinese press as well as from journals specialising in questions relating to family planning. Moreover, field notes and observation, and interviews with political leaders, local cadres, and individual citizens provide a finely shaded picture of the application of birth control. Drawing on extracts from interviews and specific cases recounted throughout the book, White draws a picture of the tensions and contradictions of the campaigns launched in the country and the city to restrict the number of births.

Rich studies and analyses of mass sterilisation campaigns are then presented (Chapter 6). The human cost of forced sterilisation and abortion is revealed in detail: White’s argumentation is full of statistics covering the whole country, enriched by interviews carried out mainly in the provinces of Anhui and Hebei. She also shows how implementation of birth control has been limited when provoking serious rebellion in the population. Chapter 7, entitled “Strategies of Resistance,” observes and classifies the various attitudes of the population towards birth control: evasion, collusion, cover-up, confrontation, and accommodation. These forms of resistance show clearly the interaction between the population and local cadres: mediation between society and the state, where each individual chooses his means of survival, resorting to corruption, temporary exile, non–registration, or direct confrontation with the authorities. The author emphasises the importance of a vital instrument: regular massive propaganda campaigns, without which no population control would have been possible. Yet the tragic repercussions of these campaigns are numerous: problems of infanticide, abandonment, and adoption are mentioned, (3) as well as the alarming imbalance in the sex ratio (Chapter 8). White reminds us of the dilemma of abortion practices, in which selective abortion plays a large part. Moreover, the large numbers of unregistered births has increased the ranks of a floating population that more or less evades all forms of control and causes the government anxiety over the future of the country.

via Tyrene White, China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005.

If people are your problem, start by killing yourself.

If people are your problem, start by killing yourself.

Before closing this topic, it is a good idea to look at the background.

The report by the China Development Research Foundation comes amid mounting speculation that Beijing may be preparing to introduce reforms to the 32-year-old policy after annual population growth fell to 0.57 per cent from 2000 to 2010, down from 1.07 per cent in the previous decade.

China’s population – the world’s largest at more than 1.3 billion – is heading for negative growth and an ultra-low fertility rate, it said, citing a string of problems caused by a policy intended to end a population explosion that threatened China’s ability to feed its people.

Although Beijing has faced calls for the controversial policy to be relaxed or abandoned, this report received unusual publicity in a sign that it may be more influential.

Many scholars, however, do not expect a swift change to the policy and cite recent instances – such as in the southern city of Shenzhen – where rules have even been tightened.

Family planning officials defend the policy, saying that it has prevented 400 million births and lifted even larger numbers out of poverty in the past three decades.

Some demographers, however, say the time is ripe for change. When the Communist Party implemented the family-planning rules in 1980, it said that in 30 years the problem of rapid population growth would be solved and the road cleared for a different policy.

The leadership has so far expressed a desire to maintain the status quo. Officials have said that no changes are expected until at least 2015.

via One-child policy to hamper economic growth, Chinese think-tank reports | The Australian.

Birth Rates in India and US Remain High; View from 2005.  - Graphic source & credit - WSJ.com

Birth Rates in India and US Remain High; View from 2005. – Graphic source & credit – WSJ.com

The effect of population control is within sight – on the horizon.

China had a fertility rate of 6.2 in the first half of the 1950s; the report puts the current figure at 1.6, down from 1.7 last year. By 2040, China will have a higher percentage of people over 60 years old than the U.S., researchers predict.

“Mainland China has the distinction of being the first major economy to grow old before they grow rich,” said Richard Jackson, director of the Global Aging Initiative of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

The population of India is expected to surpass that of China by 2050, according to the report.

By comparison with China, India’s slower pace of development and decline in fertility may help it avoid the potential dilemma wrought by China’s industrial revolution, rapid economic growth and efforts to lower its population, Mr. Jackson says.

“India will have a more gradual and stabilizing transition,” he says.

via U.S. Birth Rates Remain High – WSJ.com.

Buffered by strong growth and comfortable financial situation, China’s problems seem academic to many Chinese for now. What is it to live in an aging society?

Ask the Japanese.


US$ 150 Billion FII Inflows: India’s Next 10,000 Businesses

November 2, 2012 2 comments

In the last twenty years some ten thousand Indian business attracted US$150 billion investments. What is India doing to grow the next ten thousand businesses?

Creating the next 10,000 small businesses will secure India's economic future.  |  Cartoon titled Big Bad WalMart By J.D. Crowe, Mobile Register - 12/6/2005 12:00:00 AM; via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.

Creating the next 10,000 small businesses will secure India’s economic future. | Cartoon titled Big Bad WalMart By J.D. Crowe, Mobile Register – 12/6/2005 12:00:00 AM; via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.

India’s total forex reserves are now around US$300 billion. Simplistically, one could claim that half of this was contributed by investments in Indian businesses by foreign investors who seeks to share profits – without aiming for control.

Even as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have crossed the $150-billion mark in net investments in Indian stocks over the past two decades, domestic investors are concerned about the markets’ dependence on foreign money.

According to the data published by capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), FIIs have had a net investment of $152 billion till October 30. In October alone, FIIs put in $3.5 billion, which took the total value above the $150-billion mark.

Sebi’s data since November 1992 show FIIs have made $119.6 billion of net investment in equity and $32.4 billion in debt through stock exchanges, primary investments or other routes.

According to the regulator’s records, there are 1,751 registered FIIs in India. Sensex, the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, has risen to 18,415 from 2,929 in this period.

via FII inflows top the $150-bn mark in India – (Links supplied).

Small business - over-regulated and underfunded. |  Cartoon source and credit embedded

Small business – over-regulated and underfunded. | Cartoon source and credit embedded

Between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which is usually accompanied by case-specific exemptions, permissions, policies, rebates, FII seeks simpler systemic and transparent exemptions, permissions, policies, rebates. Indian businesses have attracted FII flows rather easily – and India has always been a laggard in FDI inflows.

Between 1970-1990, India created many small business that needed some capital to become world class. It is mostly these companies that got the US$150 billion. These are about 10,000 companies – mostly listed on the stock exchanges.

India’s main issue is that today the next 10,000 companies that can attract US$150 billion are nowhere in sight.

The Indian Government is busy protecting and fixing older businesses – while next-generation of 10,000 businesses are on no one’s radar.


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