Archive
Confirmed: Russia’s Back In The Game
|
Pax Americana needs a rival – and for now Russia is asserting itself. A circumspect Russia – with less ideology and more realpolitik.
|
Obama’s red line finally turned out to be line in the sand | Cartoon by Nate Beeler on Aug 28, 2013 in media.cagle.com
wo years ago, in November 2011, 2ndlook deciphered the Russian writing on the wall.
Syria seemed like a tempest in a teapot. Another Libya in the making. Pax Americana would stomp over Syria.
Except this time, the Russians were back.
Back again.
Does such propaganda work? | Cartoon by Steve Breen on August 29, 2011 in utsandiego.com
Prince Bandar bin Sultan flew into Moscow. His conversation with Vladimir Putin is a study in how diplomacy is not done. Give us Syria, said Bandar, and take the world. It was like the Biblical yarn about the Devil tempting Jesus in the garden of Gethsemane. “Get thee behind me, Satan,” said Christ, refusing the blandishments. When Bandar offered all the guarantees for a “terror free” Sochi Winter Olympic games next year, Putin said we know you control terrorists.
This amazing conversation was supposed to be under wraps but one of the two sides leaked it to the Russian press. Bandar’s other startling undertaking was that whatever he offered the Russians had American backing.
This was the trump card Bandar handed Putin at the global casino’s high table.
Related Articles
- 2nd Saudi Strike on Russia after Putin´s Dismissal of Bandar´s Threat (nsnbc.me)
- Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal (smh.com.au)
- Shawn Helton – Is the Russian terror attack related to Saudi Prince Bandar’s alleged threats? (prn.fm)
- Escalation: Vladimir Putin Reportedly Threatens Saudi Arabia With Massive Counter-Strike (thedailysheeple.com)
Questions #Snowden Has Not Asked More Important Than The Answers That He Has Given
The close co-operation of the Anglo-Saxon Bloc to keep the world under their electronic surveillance is war by ‘other’ means.
|
Little Difference Between One-Party Systems and 2-Party Democracies | Cartoon BY SCOTT STANTIS on June 25, 2013 in chicagotribune.com
f it has not shocked, the scale of electronic surveillance of India by the US certainly has surprised Indians – except 2ndlook readers.
For the last 4 years, before Bradley Manning, Wikileaks and before Edward Snowden, 2ndlook has been raising the danger-flag of the Big Brother State.
PRISM & The Boundless Informant: Why Was India Such An Important Target For America’s NSA?
To many Indians who have considered US to be a friendly country, it may still not be enough that India has been under greater surveillance by the US than proclaimed US-rivals like China and Russia.
Clues to a changing world
In March 2013 the NSA picked up 9.6 billion pieces of information from India’s computer networks, making it the fifth tracked country in the world after Iran, Pakistan, Jordan and Egypt. The top four are all Muslim countries, with Jordan also a close ally, so it’s a no-brainer why the NSA is targeting them. But has the world shifted so much on its geopolitical axis that India is now a bigger target than Russia and China?
There are two possibilities. One, the Americans are making sure India remains on its side of the fence. Secondly, if the NSA has been able to steal more data from India than from Russia and China, it only shows how powerless developing countries are against well-equipped spy agencies.
via Why there are no friends in the spy game | Russia & India Report.
In Europe, Germany occupies the dubious position of being under greater surveillance than other European countries.
The fact that US is mounting this surveillance operations in partnership with Britain has only added to the disquiet.
An Uncanny Alliance
We have Edward Snowden to thank for this insight into the interaction of an uncanny club, the Alliance of Five Eyes. Since World War II, the five Anglo-Saxon countries of Great Britain, the United States, Australia, New Zealand and Canada have maintained close intelligence cooperation, which apparently has gotten completely out of control.
It may be up to the Americans and the British to decide how they handle questions of freedom and the protection of their citizens from government intrusion. But they have no right to subject the citizens of other countries to their control. The shoulder-shrugging explanation by Washington and London that they have operated within the law is absurd. They are not our laws. We didn’t make them. We shouldn’t be subject to them.
The totalitarianism of the security mindset protects itself with a sentence: If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear. But firstly, that contains a presumption: We have not asked the NSA and GCHQ to “protect” us. And secondly, the sentence is a stupid one: Because we all have something to hide, whether it pertains to our private lives or to our business secrets.
No Agency Should Collect So Much Data
Thus the data scandal doesn’t pertain just to our legal principles, but to our security as well. We were lucky that Edward Snowden, who revealed the spying to the entire world, is not a criminal, but an idealist. He wanted to warn the world, not blackmail it. But he could have used his information for criminal purposes, as well. His case proves that no agency in the world can guarantee the security of the data it collects — which is why no agency should collect data in such abundance in the first place.
That is the well-known paradox of totalitarian security policy. Our security is jeopardized by the very actions that are supposed to protect it.
So what should happen now? European institutions must take control of the data infrastructure and ensure its protection. The freedom of data traffic is just as important as the European freedom of exchange in goods, services and money. But above all, the practices of the Americans and British must come to an end. Immediately.
via Jakob Augstein: Data Spying Programs Threaten German Security – SPIEGEL ONLINE.
Safety First, Privacy Essential
Apart the selection of targets (India, Germany, etc.), the joint activities of the Anglo-Saxon Bloc, the question is that of solutions. How can users be safeguarded?
- Is some kind of browser-based, sender-receiver encryption the answer?
- Do we need a greater variety of desktop-OS that will stop data-snooping?
- Should we have a global protocol where routers and internet switches use open-source chips, where the encryption key is variable and user-based?
- Do we need a combination of all the above ideas, which will secure the system, at multiple levels?
Maybe an alliance of India, Taiwan, Korea, Germany, China and Russia can define this architecture?
Terrorism? What About It!
In any one year, mosquitoes kill more Indians (malaria, dengue, chikungunya, etc.) than terrorists.
Is it time that we stopped Governments from terrorizing us with these false alarms? The answer to terrorism may also lie in checking the Anglo-Saxon Bloc.
Why is it that allies, past and present, of the Anglo-Saxon Bloc, are the source and generators of terror-factories!
Limit the Anglo-Saxon Bloc – and you anyway limit terrorism?
Less outrage and more actions will probably do the trick of making NSA into a toothless ogre.
Related Articles
- Anglo-Saxon Spies: German National Security Is at Stake (spiegel.de)
- Who authorised the NSA and GCHQ to spy on Germans? | Jakob Augstein (guardian.co.uk)
- We need to talk about Edward (stuff.co.nz)
- NSA and the Pandora’s box of surveillance (blogs.reuters.com)
- Russia debates letting Snowden in from the cold (+video) (csmonitor.com)
Adoration Of The West: Cannot Stop, Cannot Rest, Cannot End
|
Yet no Indian leader gets the kind of respect that foreign leaders get in India..
|
argaret Thatcher’s death unleashed a wave of grief.
Guess what? In India.
In the last 70 years, the Anglo-Saxon Bloc has gone downhill. From a position of absolute world power to being challenged by China – and now even India.
Yet no Indian leader gets the kind of respect that foreign leaders get in India.
Does it stop here?
Look at this twitter exchange here.
simplistic reading of the tweet can be taken to mean, ‘FBI is the gold standard. And since FBI is taking time, NIA can also take time.’
Going by Praveen Swamy’s general tenor, it is not far-fetched to see what Praveen Swami implies. But for Indian chatterati, twitterati, FBookeratti, bloggeratti, hero worship of the West cannot stop, cannot rest, cannot end.
The last word.
Related Articles
- Lessons From Record Decrease in Japan’s Population (quicktake.wordpress.com)
- Inquiring Minds Would Like To Know: Y U Worry I Ask (quicktake.wordpress.com)
- India’s Solution To Drug Costs: Ignore Patents And Control Prices – Except For Home Grown Drugs (forbes.com)
Rage, Anxiety In The West: BRICS Must Be Doing Something Right
If corruption is all about cornering wealth, power and resources, look at concentration of power.
|
Is the West assuming leadership of the global financial system, so that they can pervert the system like this? | Tom Toles, in washingtonpost.com on 18 Mar 2010
he day-after BRICS announced their plan to start a BRICS Development Bank in New Delhi last year, reactions in Western media barely concealed anger at the BRICS proposal.
Sample this.
Outside endemic corruption, uncertain or wholly absent rule of law, and relatively low per capita income and life expectancy, there wouldn’t appear to be much that unites this disparate collection of nations. But there are at least two things that do – high growth and trade.
via Why a Brics-built bank to rival the IMF is doomed to fail – Telegraph.
See this statement in wider context.
Rule of Law
On the rule of law, I would agree.The is West is truly the land of law.
Between the US and EU, on a population base of little over 80 crores, the West has about 27 lakh (2.7 million) prisoners – EU (total pop. 50 cr.; prison pop. – 6.07 lakh) and the USA (total pop. 31 cr.; prison pop. 21 lakh). With 27 lakh prisoners, the West is a world leader in imprisonment. Coincidentally, the West labels itself as the Free World.
Graphic source and courtesy – economist.com.
Exclude children, the old and women from the population ‘eligible’ for imprisonment, we are left with around 27 crore adult males. This would mean that one out of every hundred Western males is in prison.
Comparably, in India, with an overall population of 120 crores, the numbers in prison is around 3 lakhs. Of the nearly 30 crore males, India has just 3 lakhs in prison. Just one in thousand, adult Indian male is in prison.
To enforce the rule of law, the West has also become a Prisoner Planet. Is that what is missing in BRICS? Brazil and Russia have lower imprisonment rates, compared to the US – but it is still high compared to India.
No, thanks!
Corruption … or Collusion
On the matter of corruption, again he is right.
After the rule of law, with strict rules about libel and slander, corruption cannot see the light of day. But if corruption is all about cornering wealth, power and resources, look at the …
The West-dominated global financial system has pioneered a system that depends on mass-employment, low-entrepreneurial activity, excess production coupled with excess pollution and waste. | 2003 Cartoon by David Baldinger
Concentration Of Power
How does one measure concentration of power.
Today the most popular method is the Fortune /Forbes /Businessweek /FT 500 listing of Top corporates.
These listings demonstrate that half the world’s economic output is controlled by about 5000 companies run by about 25,000 individuals. Add another 25,000 politicians and bureaucrats. We have about 50,000 people controlling the lives of 800 billion people of the West – and influencing the lives of non-Western societies.
Between the mega-corporations and State, 60%-75% of the work force is employed or paid for being unemployed.
In some of the inefficient states like India, mega-corporations and the State employ less than 3 crore people – which is less than 5% of the Indian labour force.
Forget Western correspondents, there are quite a few NRI chelas for such Western journalists. Like Hong-Kong based, Venky ‘Chumboo’ Vembu. (Don’t know what Chumboo is? Never mind, Vembu knows what chumboo is).
To get an unprovoked reaction of rage and anger, BRICS must be doing something right.
More power to BRICS.
Related Articles
- BRICS Comes Of Age At Durban – Analysis (eurasiareview.com)
- BRICS Lessons From Durban – OpEd (eurasiareview.com)
- BRIC by brick (thehindu.com)
- BRICS has arrived, so will the mortar (Comment) (news.in.msn.com)
- BRICS Countries Dump The Euro, Establish Bank (eurasiareview.com)
- Durban Summit: BRICS to launch its own bank to counter WB/IMF (foreignpolicyissues.wordpress.com)
- Jim Willie’s “Most Important Article Ever”- USDollar: Ring-Fenced & Checkmate (silverdoctors.com)
Immigration Into Britain: Bubble Before The Collapse
|
This economic ‘trick’ of higher wages, profits, turnover, prices – and a higher GDP creates a brilliant optical illusion. It is called progress.
|
Was this cartoon a Government effort at building popular opinion on immigration in 1921 – before the passage of the Immigration Act (1924)? | A 1921 cartoon from the US Library of the Congress. Creative and publication credits not available at source.
odern OECD economies have an interesting economic model.
Overpaid waiters charge more for a coffee. Over-paid waiters fork out fancy amounts for a car-wash. Over-paid taxi-drivers pay huge amounts for a haircut.
And so on.
Socialist, Welfare States work best with slavery – or with immi-grunts model, in the last few centuries | Cartoon by Brian Fairrington; earliest date as per internet search 2010.
How Does Over Pricing Work
Compared to, say Indians, Norwegians are paid some 10-20 times more.These overpriced coffees and haircuts by overpaid waiters and barbers, increases GDP – and gives an optical illusion of wealth.
This economic ‘trick’ creates a brilliant optical illusion. Of higher wages, profits, turnover, prices – and GDP. Now replace Norway, with any OECD economy.
Same story and the plot does not change.
A waiter in Mumbai earns between 125-200 dollars. A Norwegian waiter earns closer to US$1500-2000 per month. Both do the same job and the net economic output should not change.
But it does. What Norway does is overstate Norwegian economic output.
By over-paying everybody.
Attracting imi-grunts on one hand – and making it impossible for some others. | Cartoonist: John Deering; Pub. Date: 2013-01-30; source & courtesy – cartoonistgroup.com
Nuggets of Information
Look behind this show …
A recent study concluded that nearly half of American population dies penniless. Spain has a million prostitutes from approximately 10 million women in the 15-50 age group.
What about the apparent wealth? The cars, trains and aeroplanes …
Using over-generous debt, workers can ‘buy’ the latest cars, toasters and lawn-mowers – which creates an illusion of economic well-being. The vast numbers of workers are tied down by increasing amounts of debt – and taxes.
Dos this ‘wealth’ give them freedom? Liberty?
Not if look at the number of people who are in prison. Who are bankrupt and indebted. Who die penniless. But as long as long as you do what the powerful elite wants you to do, you can have the latest cars, toasters and lawn-mowers.
But …
This illusion can be kept standing, only as entry into the labour pool remains low and limited. This ties in neatly with low-marital rates – and low birth rates. in OECD countries. Low birth rates mean labour shortages – and need for immi-grunts.
High wages attract immi-grunts…
While making promises on one side – and erecting new obstacles. | Published: Wednesday, February 20th, 2013; Immigration Reform cartoon by by Clay Bennett; source & courtesy – timesfreepress.com
And …
To a country like Britain also …
This line of immi-grunts allows British media to be gross and ill-mannered. It gives them the right to talk of ‘booting’ and ‘kicking’ people. Like in this report.
A Home Office report says there may be as many as 863,000 illegal migrants – 70 per cent of whom are living in London.
The study also reveals that 10,000 foreigners who had no legal right to live in Britain have been granted permission to stay under the so-called 14-year rule.
It means they managed to stay in the country for so long without being booted out that the Government has now given up the fight.
The illegal immigrants are a mixture of those who sneaked into Britain in the back of lorries and those who arrived on visas but never went home.
The ‘robust estimate’ of how many illegals are living in the UK comes from the London School of Economics, and is included in a study titled Practical Measures for Reducing Irregular Migration. The LSE found there were between 417,000 and 863,000 illegals living in the UK, with a central figure of 613,000. Ministers accept the figures.
The Home Office says the top five countries from which the illegals have arrived are believed to be India, Nigeria, Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh.
This is based on the nationalities of those people the authorities have detected.
Earlier this month, the official Census showed that 7.5million people who were born abroad were living here in 2011, of whom more than half have arrived since 2001.
The Home Office study sets out for the first time how many beneficiaries there have been of the 14-year rule.
This states that, once a migrant has lived in the UK for this long, he or she will have established a right to a family life and should not normally be kicked out.
What would be just great is if Brazil decided to throw out British businesses – who are seeking to exploit Brazilian opportunities.
Theresa May, the British home secretary, faces a row with cabinet colleagues over proposals to impose visa restrictions on Brazilians, underlining the tensions between the search for economic growth and the need to recognise public concern over immigration.
Ms May’s plans to tighten rules for Brazilians is a serious test for the coalition, as it tries to balance conflicting priorities. Ministers fear the restrictions will cast a shadow over British relations with Brazil, a fast-growing economy that David Cameron has targeted as a key trading partner for Britain. The Home Office is already fighting criticism from tour groups and UK luxury retailers that the complex process of obtaining a tourist visa in China is preventing high-spending Chinese nationals from entering the UK.
Mr Cameron and Nick Clegg, deputy prime minister, have both visited Brazil since the election and have tried to bolster trade links. But Ms May believes the country is also the source of much illegal immigration to Britain.
The home secretary will propose ending the current agreement, which allows Brazilians to visit Britain for up to six months without a visa. Her suggestion comes as countries such as the US and Australia are taking the opposite course by easing visa restrictions with Brazil, to encourage tourism and business ties.
William Hague, foreign secretary and George Osborne, chancellor, are among those who have clashed with Ms May over her operation of Britain’s visa regime.“The Home Office is in favour of new visa restrictions but everyone else in the cabinet is basically against,” said a person involved in the discussions.
Lord Mandelson, the former Labour minister and EU trade commissioner, said the idea was “certifiably mad”.
Only last summer, Mr Cameron visited São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro accompanied by a 58-strong business delegation, to develop better trade ties with the $2.3tn-a-year economy. According to UK Trade & Industry, 14 government ministers have visited Brazil over the past 18 months.
Home Office figures for 2011 show that Brazil is fifth in the top 10 of illegal immigrant nationalities in the UK, with more than 2,000 forcibly removed that year.
The racism behind the British immi-grunt debate is papered over. Worth looking at some British Government statistics.
Long-stay immigrants into the UK from Poland, India and China are outnumbered by Germans, South Africans, North Americans, people from the white Commonwealth and returning Britons.
Official figures show that of the top ten migrant countries in 2008, 137,000 were from the first group and 152,000 from the second group.
There is no debate in the media, among politicians and among the public concerning North Americans and the white Commonwealth.
The fact that they ‘take jobs’ in the UK does not feature as an issue among those who are most concerned about immigration.
The anti-immigration campaign group Migration Watch and UKIP create fear about immigration numbers and fail to point out that immigrants include people from Australia, US, New Zealand and others.
The figures are contained in the Office for National Statistics latest annual report on migration, Migration Statistics 2008, http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm71/7197/7197.pdf
Of those intending to stay for a long period, the report states:
British, 77,000 (i.e. UK citizens returning to the UK)
Poland, 54,000
India, 48,000
China, 18,000
Germany, 18,000
Pakistan, 17,000
USA, 15,000
South Africa, Australia, Italy, 14,000
The report suggests that many of the Indian, Chinese and perhaps Pakistani long-stay migrants are students. In terms of all visitors and migrants into the UK, the report states: ‘Citizens of the United States of America (USA) comprised 32 per cent of total non-EEA admissions, the nationality with by far the most admissions, representing an increase of 6 per cent to 4.1 million in 2006. The next three nationalities with the highest numbers of admissions were Australia (up 8 per cent to 1.1 million), Canada (up 11 per cent to 1.0 million) and India (up 23 per cent to 0.8 million).’
It is likely that most illegal immigrants are from North America and white Commonwealth countries.
According to the Institute for Public Policy Research, few people sneak into the country undetected so most illegal immigrants are overstayers, or people who stay in the UK beyond their entitlement.
There are few figures concerning overstayers by country. When Australia checked their overstayers in 2005, they found the top countries were the US and Britain.
via UK Indymedia – Most illegal migrants likely to be white.
Related Articles
- Ed Miliband: ‘Labour got immigration wrong’ (standard.co.uk)
- Ed Miliband: ‘We were wrong, we do need to cut low-skilled immigration’ (standard.co.uk)
- Agency’s £30m for failing to eject illegal immigrants from Britain (express.co.uk)
- UK visas for Brazilians: are we bothered? (blogs.ft.com)
- Miliband: Low-Skill Immigration Is Too High (news.sky.com)
- Theresa’s leadership challenge? It sounds like Downing Street May have a fight on its hands… (independent.co.uk)
- Diane Abbott on warpath over Ed’s immigration mea culpa (theweek.co.uk)
- Labour immigration policy will focus on short-term student visitor visas (guardian.co.uk)
- Labour to call for end to student visitor visa loopholes (standard.co.uk)
- Bulgaria Hits out at Being Used as a Scapegoat by Britain (novinite.com)
China:The Limits of Central Control
|
Chinese Govt drives a consensus with regional govts – using mostly persuasion, sometimes post-facto ratification, rarely central diktat..
|
China lifts Uncle Sam; cartoon by rodrigo; on September 02, 2009 Published at http://www.expresso.pt on August 25th, 2009; source & courtesy – toonpool.com
hina’s governance, in reality is contrary to the image widely projected or popularly understood.
Instead of a monolithic, unitary, autocratic dictatorship the Chinese central Government drives a consensus with regional governments – using mostly persuasion, sometimes by post-facto ratification, rarely by central diktat.
Smoke On Water
Probably the worst example of Chinese governance is production and promotion of tobacco smoking by regional governments. As cigarettes are a large part of the revenue for regional governments, cigarette smoking has been passively encouraged. Sometimes even actively.
China’s expenditure on internal policing and law & order is larger than China’s defense expenditure. If the control of the China’s central government was so strong, why is its expenditure on internal security so high?
There are many other elements to the Chinese puzzle.
Bit by bit
Earlier posts had examined the Chinese economy that thrived on exports for the last nearly twenty years aided by and supported with a cheap yuan. Will China go the Japan way?
The mysterious manner in which the Buddhist monk has disappeared from Chinese movies is an ominous feature. Especially when the Buddhist monk has been replaced by gangsters. To this add, how Tibetan protests in the form of self-immolation by priests and nuns have unnerved the Chinese administration.
Coming to foreign policy, Indian media paints a unreal picture of the Chinese threat. Even in the past, in the 1965 and the 1971 India-Pakistan Wars, China maintained a distant attitude towards Pakistan, providing little more than verbal support to Pakistan. Indian Navy in the South China Sea, in alliance with Vietnam, is a significant counter-measure to aggressive posturing by China in the Indian North East.
Catching on and catching up with the emerging China picture.
The reality is that power in China is much less concentrated than it was in the days of Mao and Deng.
Far from being the all-powerful behemoth that some in the west admire for its omnipotence, the central government can often be oddly ineffectual and powerless.
A slightly frivolous but nonetheless instructive example is the government’s complete ban on the construction of golf courses that has been in place since 2004.
Since then the number of golf courses in China has nearly quadrupled. The point is that Beijing produces many well-intentioned laws and regulations that are often not implemented or enforced unless they directly align with the interests of cadres at the lower levels of state power.
The central government can impose its will and mobilise the nation when it absolutely has to but it uses up an enormous chunk of political capital every time it does that.
Because of this, China’s leaders tend to spend a lot of time giving positive speeches but they only really swing into action when faced with a serious crisis.
A good example was the Sars epidemic that emerged from southern China almost exactly 10 years ago and presented the now outgoing administration of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao with their first big test at the outset of their time in office.
After trying first to cover it up they finally responded by mobilising the entire country and eventually brought the disease under control. Mr Xi and his team have not yet been tested with their equivalent of a Sars moment but when they are it will provide more of an insight into their ability to govern the world’s most populous nation
Related Articles
- China Bans Reincarnation Without Government Permission (huffingtonpost.com)
- China Focus: High local economic growth targets questioned (nzweek.com)
- China arrests 5 Tibetans, mostly Buddhist monks, whom it accuses of inciting self-immolations (vancouverdesi.com)
- China arrests 5 Tibetans for ‘inciting’ immolation (miamiherald.com)
- Two more immolations reported as Tibetan protests continue (thehindu.com)
- China Boosts Defense Spending to Modernize Military Arsenal (bloomberg.com)
- China thinks Android is too dominant, may take action (geek.com)
- Gwadar: A Port For China, A Tinderbox For Balochistan? (rferl.org)
In A G-0 World, Can BRICS Show Leadership?
|
For the world now, instead of ‘G-7, or G-8, or G-20, the more apt description is G-0’ – per Joseph Stiglitz. Can BRICS offer that leadership – starting Afghanistan.
|
From 1970s, when Pakistan started meddling in Afghan affairs, by how much have Soviet or the American invasions helped Afghanistan? | Cartoon By Jeff Darcy, The Cleveland Plain Dealer – 5/21/2012 12:00:00 AM via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.
ith NATO turning tail and leaving, Afghanistan is not much better off than before America’s invasion.
Pakistan, as the sole Islāmic nuclear power, has assigned itself the role of an arbiter of Afghan destiny – a hold over Afghanistan’s future. With its dubious distinction of being a failed State, should Pakistan have any role in Afghanistan?
After ruining Afghanistan with 40 years of disastrous interventions, the West playing the victims is an offensive act | Cartoon By Taylor Jones, El Nuevo Dia, Puerto Rico – 9/7/2012 12:00:00 AM via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.
The West, under NATO’s military command, is walking away from Afghanistan with nothing to show for this invasion.
After billions in dollars, with more than a million Afghans affected by death, combat injuries, manifold increase in corruption, and a Saudi-Pakistan financed Taliban is on the rise, Afghanistan is West’s biggest failure after Vietnam. Never before in the last 200 years has West’s leadership been in question so much.
In the current State of the world, in the memorable words of Joseph Stiglitz, why ‘talk about the G-7, or G-8, or G-20, the more apt description is G-0.’
Afghanistan was a much better place one millennium ago – as its agricultural exports, arts and crafts will testify. It is the US-Pakistani involvement from the 70s, which has made Afghanistan into a no-man’s land. | Cartoon By Jimmy Margulies, The Record of Hackensack, NJ – 10/11/2012 12:00:00 AM via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.
Afghanistan will be the test of BRICS.
Till 1980s, the Soviet Union bordered Afghanistan. Today, while Soviet Union’s successor, Russia no longer shares a border with Afghanistan, as a part of BRICS grouping, it may continue to play a role in post-NATO Afghanistan.
Will China-India tensions come in the way of BRICS to do what is good for Afghanistan? Will China work with BRICS to keep Pakistan out of Afghanistan? When it matters, can BRICS nations put aside their differences and work on common problems – like Afghanistan?
Straightening Pakistan is a matter of hours. What will take time is building capacity among BRICS nations to work together on common problems – and put aside differences, when these differences are not directly relevant.
One thing is for sure.
If BRICS cam make an Afghan solution stick, a new age will dawn in global diplomacy. The current void in global leadership will start getting filled.
Civil war in Afghanistan is directly the result of Western interventions in the last 40 years. | Cartoon by By Arend Van Dam, politicalcartoons.com – 10/24/2012 12:00:00 AM via PoliticalCartoons.com Cartoon.
With the US and the UK apparently conceding to Pakistan the lead role in reconciliation with Taliban, India is set to hold talks with Russia and China on emerging scenarios in Afghanistan ahead of the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force’s withdrawal from the conflict-ravaged country by 2014.
New Delhi is also expected to air its concern over Pakistan’s role in the peace-process in Afghanistan during British Prime Minister David Cameron’s visit to India scheduled on Monday. Cameron recently hosted Afghan and Pakistan presidents Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari at his country residence Chequers Court. India will get another opportunity to discuss the issues when it will have a trilateral talk with the US and Afghanistan in New Delhi next week.
Sources said India is expected to drive home the point that Pakistan continues to be “a part of the problem” and it cannot yet be seen as “a part of the solution” in Afghanistan. Any hasty careless move to launch the peace process would in fact give an opportunity to Taliban to crawl back to power after 2014. New Delhi is likely to point out that the US itself, in 2011, publicly slammed Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence for its role in fomenting terrorism in Afghanistan.
What worries India is the Afghan High Peace Council’s five-step draft roadmap to 2015, would ultimately give Pakistan the “strategic depth” it always aspired to have in Afghanistan. New Delhi is apprehensive about Washington outsourcing to Islamabad the peace-process with Taliban, before and after the drawdown of the International Security Assistance Force from Afghanistan.
The “draft road map” also seeks to give some key positions in post-2014 Afghanistan to the leaders of Taliban, including that of provincial governors, police chiefs and cabinet ministers.
To facilitate the peace-process, Pakistan, since November, released 26 Taliban prisoners from its jails, ostensibly on request from Afghanistan but without any oversight, triggering fear that some of them might go back to extremism.
When Menon broached the issue during a meeting of the BRICS high representatives for security in New Delhi last month, it was agreed that he and his counterparts from Russia and China would have a separate meeting to exchange views on the peace-process with Taliban and discuss the emerging scenarios in Afghanistan. Sources said the meeting might take place later this month.
New Delhi has made it clear that it is in favour an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process towards peace in Afghanistan but insisted that the “Red Lines” agreed in London Conference in 2010 were strictly adhered to and the extremists entering the process were made to severe all links with Al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations.
via India to talk to China, Russia on Pak role in Afghanistan.
Related Articles
- Taliban dismiss outcome of Pak-Afghan-UK conference (dawn.com)
- US supports Pak-Afghan deadline for Taliban deal (dawn.com)
- You: US endorses Pak Afghan UK summit declaration (nation.com.pk)
- Pak-Afghan peace pact in six months – The News International (thenews.com.pk)
- Pak-Afghan Ulema conference in Kabul on March 10: FO (dawn.com)
- You: India’s concerns over Gawadar Port unwarranted: FO (nation.com.pk)
- In India, Putin finds support on Afghanistan, Syria (indrus.in)
- Afghan and Pakistani presidents in Britain for talks (dawn.com)
- First phase of Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan begins (dawn.com)
- Pakistan wants improved ties with India, Afghanistan: Ashraf (dawn.com)
Population Control in China: Govt. Think-tank Calls For Immediate End To One-child Policy
|
For four years now, various Chinese groups and publications, have proposed abolition of China’s one-child policy. For the Chinese State, population control cannot be a subordinate policy.
|
A caricature of China’s one-child policy. Creative credits not available.
While the Indian Government by blaming Indian society or female feticide, think-tanks backed by Chinese Government have clearly and squarely blamed the faulty intervention of the State into family lives.
This population planning policies were implemented in India and China under pressure of World Bank, IMF, USAID etc. Western aid was clearly and explicitly tied to family planning targets.
The real impact of birth control. Image source & courtesy – global-sisterhood-network.org
Though the government credits the policy with preventing hundreds of millions of births and helping lift countless families out of poverty, it is reviled by many ordinary people. The strict limits have led to forced abortions and sterilizations, even though such measures are illegal. Couples who flout the rules face hefty fines, seizure of their property and loss of their jobs.
Many demographers argue that the policy has worsened the country’s aging crisis by limiting the size of the young labor pool that must support the large baby boom generation as it retires. They say it has contributed to the imbalanced sex ratio by encouraging families to abort baby girls, preferring to try for a male heir.
The government recognizes those problems and has tried to address them by boosting social services for the elderly. It has also banned sex-selective abortion and rewarded rural families whose only child is a girl.
Many today also see the birth limits as outdated, a relic of the era when housing, jobs and food were provided by the state.
Graphic source & courtesy – wsj.com
Chairman Mao in China and Sanjay Gandhi in India were some of the people who were convinced on the ‘merits’ of this State intervention in family life.
A Chinese government think tank is urging the country’s leaders to start phasing out its one-child policy immediately and allow two children for every family by 2015, a daring proposal to do away with the unpopular policy.
Some demographers see the timeline put forward by the China Development Research Foundation as a bold move by the body, which is close to the central leadership. Others warn that the gradual approach, if implemented, would still be insufficient to help correct the problems that China’s strict birth limits have created.
Xinhua news agency said the foundation recommended a two-child policy in some provinces from this year and a nationwide two-child policy by 2015. It proposes all birth limits be dropped by 2020, Xinhua reported.
“China has paid a huge political and social cost for the policy, as it has resulted in social conflict, high administrative costs and led indirectly to a long-term gender imbalance at birth,” Xinhua said, citing the report.
However, it remains unclear whether Chinese leaders are ready to take up the recommendations. China’s National Population and Family Planning Commission had no immediate comment.
Known to many as the “one-child policy,” China’s actual rules are more complicated. The government limits most urban couples to one child and allows two children for rural families if their first-born is a girl. There are numerous other exceptions as well.
via Chinese government think tank calls for immediate end to one-child policy – Taipei Times.
China’s population is reducing with lesser births than deaths. This trend will soon mean that fewer workers will pay more taxes and take care of more elderly than ever before. GDP on horizontal scale and fertility on vertical axis. Graphic credits not available.
More recently the Chinese Government has linked climate change with population control – which further led to development of the Carnegie Institute to label Genghis Khan’s massacres as acts of benevolence.
According to Zhao Baige, vice-minister of National Population and Family Planning Commission of China (NPFPC), as a result of the family planning policy, China has seen 400 million fewer births, which has resulted in 18 million fewer tons of CO2 emissions a year, Zhao said.
The UN report projected that if the global population would remain 8 billion by the year 2050 instead of a little more than 9 billion according to medium-growth scenario, “it might result in 1 billion to 2 billion fewer tons of carbon emissions”.
Meanwhile, she said studies have also shown that family planning programs are more efficient in helping cut emissions, citing research by Thomas Wire of London School of Economics that states: “Each $7 spent on basic family planning would reduce CO2 emissions by more than one ton” whereas it would cost $13 for reduced deforestation, $24 to use wind technology, $51 for solar power, $93 for introducing hybrid cars and $131 electric vehicles.
She admitted that China’s population program is not without consequences, as the country is entering the aging society fast and facing the problem of gender imbalance.
She said some 85 percent of the Chinese women in reproductive age use contraceptives, the highest rate in the world. This has been achieved largely through education and improvement of people’s lives, she said.
If the planet is your concern, abortion comes later. Before that you are a part of the excess population. Kill yourself.
Much before China’s draconian one-child policy, there is a long history of population control.
Tyrene White in her book China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005
draws on a wealth of diverse data from the political literature relating to internal reforms (principally rural economic reforms), and to the mass campaigns from the beginning of the 1950s to the end of the 1990s. She brings together numerous local regulations, official circulars, and articles drawn from the Chinese press as well as from journals specialising in questions relating to family planning. Moreover, field notes and observation, and interviews with political leaders, local cadres, and individual citizens provide a finely shaded picture of the application of birth control. Drawing on extracts from interviews and specific cases recounted throughout the book, White draws a picture of the tensions and contradictions of the campaigns launched in the country and the city to restrict the number of births.
Rich studies and analyses of mass sterilisation campaigns are then presented (Chapter 6). The human cost of forced sterilisation and abortion is revealed in detail: White’s argumentation is full of statistics covering the whole country, enriched by interviews carried out mainly in the provinces of Anhui and Hebei. She also shows how implementation of birth control has been limited when provoking serious rebellion in the population. Chapter 7, entitled “Strategies of Resistance,” observes and classifies the various attitudes of the population towards birth control: evasion, collusion, cover-up, confrontation, and accommodation. These forms of resistance show clearly the interaction between the population and local cadres: mediation between society and the state, where each individual chooses his means of survival, resorting to corruption, temporary exile, non–registration, or direct confrontation with the authorities. The author emphasises the importance of a vital instrument: regular massive propaganda campaigns, without which no population control would have been possible. Yet the tragic repercussions of these campaigns are numerous: problems of infanticide, abandonment, and adoption are mentioned, (3) as well as the alarming imbalance in the sex ratio (Chapter 8). White reminds us of the dilemma of abortion practices, in which selective abortion plays a large part. Moreover, the large numbers of unregistered births has increased the ranks of a floating population that more or less evades all forms of control and causes the government anxiety over the future of the country.
via Tyrene White, China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005.
If people are your problem, start by killing yourself.
Before closing this topic, it is a good idea to look at the background.
The report by the China Development Research Foundation comes amid mounting speculation that Beijing may be preparing to introduce reforms to the 32-year-old policy after annual population growth fell to 0.57 per cent from 2000 to 2010, down from 1.07 per cent in the previous decade.
China’s population – the world’s largest at more than 1.3 billion – is heading for negative growth and an ultra-low fertility rate, it said, citing a string of problems caused by a policy intended to end a population explosion that threatened China’s ability to feed its people.
Although Beijing has faced calls for the controversial policy to be relaxed or abandoned, this report received unusual publicity in a sign that it may be more influential.
Many scholars, however, do not expect a swift change to the policy and cite recent instances – such as in the southern city of Shenzhen – where rules have even been tightened.
Family planning officials defend the policy, saying that it has prevented 400 million births and lifted even larger numbers out of poverty in the past three decades.
Some demographers, however, say the time is ripe for change. When the Communist Party implemented the family-planning rules in 1980, it said that in 30 years the problem of rapid population growth would be solved and the road cleared for a different policy.
The leadership has so far expressed a desire to maintain the status quo. Officials have said that no changes are expected until at least 2015.
via One-child policy to hamper economic growth, Chinese think-tank reports | The Australian.
Birth Rates in India and US Remain High; View from 2005. – Graphic source & credit – WSJ.com
The effect of population control is within sight – on the horizon.
China had a fertility rate of 6.2 in the first half of the 1950s; the report puts the current figure at 1.6, down from 1.7 last year. By 2040, China will have a higher percentage of people over 60 years old than the U.S., researchers predict.
“Mainland China has the distinction of being the first major economy to grow old before they grow rich,” said Richard Jackson, director of the Global Aging Initiative of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
The population of India is expected to surpass that of China by 2050, according to the report.
By comparison with China, India’s slower pace of development and decline in fertility may help it avoid the potential dilemma wrought by China’s industrial revolution, rapid economic growth and efforts to lower its population, Mr. Jackson says.
“India will have a more gradual and stabilizing transition,” he says.
Buffered by strong growth and comfortable financial situation, China’s problems seem academic to many Chinese for now. What is it to live in an aging society?
Ask the Japanese.
Related Articles
- Chinese Think Tank Urges End to One-Child Policy (abcnews.go.com)
- Chinese think tank urges end to one-child policy (cnsnews.com)
- China considers ending unpopular one-child policy (behindthewall.nbcnews.com)
- China think tank urges gov’t to end 1-child policy (news.yahoo.com)
- Think-tank calls for end to one-child policy (todayonline.com)
- China thinktank urges end of one-child policy (guardian.co.uk)
- Chinese think-tank urges end to one-child policy (straitstimes.com)
Af-Pak: Is Something Big Cooking?
|
Will the first fifteen days of October go down in history as that which changed 21st century?
|
Between policy and propaganda; trying to link reality with ‘spin’ | Cartoon on Oct 15 2012 titled Unraveling by Bob Gorrell; source & courtesy – cagle.com
The last 15 days has seen some curious diplomacy that spilled over into the public domain.
First was China ratcheting up hostility with Japan over some silly islands – which had some value in the past. And supposedly some value in the future. For now, there is a chance of hostilities (not war) between Japan and China.
Question: Why did China decide to take on the Japan – when it could have more easily taken on Vietnam, Philippines? Maybe even India.
What we have finally after 25 years of American intervention in Afghanistan | Cartoon on Oct 14 2012 titled Triumph of Taliban by Marian Kamensky; source & courtesy – cagle.com
Two. There was Putin’s non-visit to Pakistan for a quadrilateral summit (Oct 2-3) between Russia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. This Pakistan visit was to be followed with an India visit by Anatoly Serdyukov, Russian Defence Minister, on October 4, 2012 – which too was postponed.
In the meantime, Pakistan’s Army Chief, Ashfaq Kayani landed in Moscow. Even as Kayani was in Moscow, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov was in Pakistan.
Three: In the rest of world, momentous things were happening. Venezuela, which today has bigger oil reserves than Saudi Arabia, has re-elected Hugo Chavez as its President. This will possibly deeply affect global oil equations. Meanwhile, the West continued with its Middle East war plans against Syria and Iran.
Could the answer to this puzzle be Afghanistan?
Why is Afghanistan so important? The Soviet Union spent billions on the Afghan invasion – and the US has spent trillions. The Afghan War is already the longest war the US has fought.
Three reasons why Afghanistan is important.
Why have peace, when you can have war? | Cartoon by Cameron Cardow on Oct 11 2012 titled Opportunity; source & courtesy – cagle.com
Oil. Oil. Oil.
But Afghanistan has no oil.
The oil is in Central Asia and Russia.
While Asian oil consumption is increasing, Western oil consumption is expected to slightly decline. Shale oil in US, North Sea oil in Europe are likely to account for increasing share of Western production and consumption. Brazil, Canada, Venezuela can’t ship more oil to US and Europe in the next twenty years. China, India, Japan and Korea are dependent on oil imports. Oil consumption in these markets is growing – unlike the West.
In which case, the Central Asian, Latin American and Russian oil exports will move towards Asia.
While Obama promised one thing, he did another. No different from other US President. | Cartoon titled President Strangelove By RJ Matson, The St. Louis Post Dispatch – on 4/10/2012 12:00:00 AM; source & courtesy – cagle.com
India’s stakes are really high in Afghanistan, especially once the Western troops leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014. What are the likely scenarios that may develop in Afghanistan once the foreign troops leave that country?
With India getting closer to the US, and building on its historic ties with Russia, there are even more opportunities for India, US and Russia to collaborate in stabilising Afghanistan.
India should help Afghanistan become the gateway between South and Central Asia. India is already building close ties with the Central Asian countries, especially given the rising demand for oil and natural gas in India. The historic TAPI gas pipeline, when completed, will bring natural gas from Turkmenistan to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan, which could be a game-changer for the entire region.
via India’s options in the Afghanistan end-game | Russia & India Report.
From Reagan to Obama, from Iran to Afghanistan, how US interventions have handcrafted the Islamic monster | Cartoon on Oct 16 2012 titled Mind Over Monster by Cal Grondahl; source & courtesy – cagle.com
With the Middle East in a state of permanent state of instability, India would like to have greater diversity in supply sources. This where the Russian oil comes in.
India is an energy deficient country and Russia has an energy surplus and therefore, a mutual interest lies in this sector. India’s policy makers are trying to promote energy cooperation based on political understanding. The Indian side feels that there is a clear compatibility between India’s needs and Russia’s resources. The Indian side is adopting a policy to implement the experience of Sakhalin-1 to other oilfields in Russia.
The Indian side feels that though these two countries are not geographically contiguous it is not a hindrance for cooperation since the international oil and gas trade is not based on contiguity. India’s interest in the Russian energy sector has already been proved by the country’s investment in Sakhalin-1. While public sector energy companies from India have already made considerable investments in Russia, now India is also promoting its private sector companies for investments in downstream petroleum units in Russia in return for a stake in petroleum refineries there. India has proposed an exploration venture with Russian gas majors Gazprom and Rosneft and sought a stake in the Sakhalin-III oil and gas project in the Far East. The Indian side has proposed joint venture to work on gas liquefactions projects in Russian offshore fields for Shipment to India. Indian companies are being welcomed due to Indo-Russian strong strategic ties.
India is also looking for options for transporting Russian crude to India through a pipeline link from Xinjiang to India. But this depends on a joint agreement between Russia-Kazakhstan-China-India. The proposal is such, where crude from Russia could be transported via 1,240 kilometre-long pipeline from Atasu in northwest Kazakhstan to China’s Xinjiang province. Depending on the robustness of multilateral initiatives, a pipeline could be constructed to connect China’s Xinjiang province to India. This pipeline could enter the Xinjiang province in China at Altai, climb the Tian Shan Mountains and extend southward to the Kunlun Mountains in India.
India’s ONGC has proposed another energy highway to construct a Russia-China-India (RCI) pipeline. The RCI is supposed to stretch from Russia through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, to Kashgar in Chinese Xinjiang. It will enter India via Laddakh, crossing the Siachen glaciers and the India-China Line of Control or alternatively through Himachal Pradesh to supply gas to Northern India. According to ONGC (India) officials, the economic and technical aspects of the proposal remain undetermined. The proposed pipeline would extend over an extremely long stretch of varied terrain (construction of the pipeline may cost somewhere up to $15 Billion, or slightly less if connected through already operating pipelines).
The Russia’s energy strategy towards Asia clearly mentions India as one of the important target countries along with Japan, China, and Korea. India is carefully taking note of Russia’s hydrocarbon vision, as now India wants to have a strong presence in Russia’s massive energy sector that can help ensure India’s vital energy security. All these indicate that both the nations can expand the cooperation in the energy sector too as they did in the defence sector. Amidst all these developments there is a hope that India-Russia energy cooperation will scale towards new heights.
via Energy cooperation between India and Russia: Policy and approach | Russia & India Report.
For too long, India has been dependent on a unstable Middle East for oil imports | Cartoon dated Sep 19 2012 titled Agitator by Arend van Dam; source & courtesy – cagle.com
In the meantime, Pakistan is seeing a conflict between US Army and Pakistani Army. Facing an unprecedented barrage of drone attacks from US, a ‘so-called’ ally, Pakistan’s civilian population is paying a heavy price.
Is the United States starting a low-intensity war against Pakistan? The signs look ominous. The relentless drone attacks through the recent months are destabilizing Pakistan’s tribal areas, especially the areas adjacent to the border with Afghanistan. The US’ excuse is that the drones are hunting down the militants belonging to the so-called Haqqani group. But they are causing a lot of civilian casualties so much so that the United Nations officials begin to wonder if these wanton killings would constitute ‘war crimes’.
Pakistan government keeps protesting to the US about the violation of its territorial integrity but the US ignores the demarches and continues with the drone attacks.
The US would know that the drone attacks do not provide the conducive setting for a normalization of the US-Pakistan relationship. Yet, it is not prepared to give up the drone attacks. There seems to a game plan to systematically destabilize the Waziristan area and to provoke the Pakistani military leadership.
Meanwhile, there has been a concerted attack by assorted militants of dubious backgrounds on Pakistani troops from across the border in Afghanistan. Exactly who they are or who are their mentors no one knows. In a cross-border strike on Monday, the militants used extremely brutal method to behead Pakistani soldiers. Evidently, they were making a point – showing their thumbs up at the Pakistani military leadership.
To add to the tensions, for the first time, the militants have publicly admitted that they do enjoy ‘safe haven’ on Afghan soil. This is something Pakistan has hinted at in recent period but it is now coming into the open. Again, they are taunting the Pakistani military leadership. The former US President George W. Bush would say, “Bring ‘em on!”
This is going to be a cat-and-mouse game. Pakistan is hunkering down and the US is losing patience. The decision in Washington seems to be to carry the war into Pakistani territory and incrementally inflict such unbearable losses that Pakistan finds it impossible to defy the US’ regional strategies.
Quite obviously, the US has concluded it has no alternatives but to step up the pressure and escalate tensions in a calibrated way. The US has been taken by surprise at Pakistan’s ‘strategic defiance’. The fact of the matter is that the present directions of Pakistani foreign policy hold the serious threat of undermining the US’ regional strategies with regard to permanent military presence in Central Asia, US’ containment strategy toward China (and Russia), projection of the NATO as a global security organization and of course the so-called New Silk Road Initiative.
The possibility that with Russian and/or Chinese participation, Pakistan might proceed with the Iran gas pipeline project infuriates the US to no end. Pakistan’s manifest enthusiasm for Russia’s participation in the TAPI [Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India] gas pipeline project rubbishes the US’ expectations that American companies could secure lucrative energy contracts via involvement in the project. The US apprehends that during the visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pakistan in September, the two countries may begin a qualitatively new level of relationship with major projects in the energy sector.
If that happens, the US’ containment strategy toward Iran also begins to unravel.
In sum, the US’ patience is wearing thin. The common wisdom in the international community, historically speaking, has been that the Pakistani elites with their comprador mentality might say a few hot words now and then but would ultimately be loyal foot soldiers of the US agenda. The basis of this supposition is that ultimately the class interests of the Pakistani elites would prevail as the crucial determinant of statecraft. Of course, the US has had to pick up the tab for the services rendered by Pakistan but that was only to be expected.
The US establishment has been attuned to this paradigm characteristic of the cold-war era. That is why the US establishment is shocked to see that the Pakistani elites (military leadership, in particular) are no longer what they were supposed to be – Washington’s hirelings serving the US’ global agenda.
Washington’s wrath will only increase in the coming months. We are witnessing the commencement of a US-inspired low-intensity war against Pakistan being waged by obscure militant groups based in ‘safe havens’ inside Afghanistan. Call it by whatever name one likes, but the project aims at breaking Pakistan’s strategic autonomy.
To be sure, Pakistan comprehends what is going on. But what are its policy options?
via “Bring ’em on!” – US tells Pakistan | Russia & India Report.
And guess what?
Indian paparazzi, chatteratti, twitteratti, bloggeratti, not to forget the literati, glitterati, were busy with ‘corruption-scandals’!
Related Articles
- Russia and India: Brothers in Arms Against Terrorism? (thediplomat.com)
- Drone attacks breach of Pak sovereignty: Russia – The News International (thenews.com.pk)
- You: Russia supports Pakistan’s stance on Afghanistan, drone attacks (nation.com.pk)
- Pakistan, Russia Intensify Contacts to Improve Ties (voanews.com)
- Karzai: Afghanistan, Pakistan Should Coordinate Anti-terrorism Efforts (voanews.com)
- We will not sell arms to Pakistan, says Russia (thehindu.com)
- Pakistan scores a diplomatic brownie point: Kayani gets Russia to ‘ignore’ old friend India (dailymail.co.uk)
- Did a drone attack Malala? (dawn.com)
Viktor Bout, Arms Dealer:: His Rise and Fall
|
Probably the most, well-known arms traders. After Adnan Khashoggi.
|
Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, right, escorted by Thai police commandos, arrives at Bangkok’s Don muang airport on Tuesday Nov. 16, 2010. Thailand extradited Bout to the U.S. to face terrorism charges, | Source-AP Photo; courtesy – THAILAND OUT.
Viktor Bout, an arms dealer of Ukrainian origins, a Russian citizen, was arrested during a US DEA sting operation, in Thailand in 2008, before being extradited in 2010 – and finally convicted and sentenced by US Courts in 2012.
Subject of a 2005 Hollywood film, ‘Lord of War’ based on his life, running foul of US authorities, he was set up for an arrest in Thailand.
Two things.
One – During the time that Viktor Bout was active, the US President was also suspected to be involved in the Iran-Contra scandal – as an arms dealer and in money laundering.
Two– As the Soviet Union collapsed, citizens of their country could no longer get adequate State protection – which would have been unthinkable till the 1980s.
Nobody, but nobody, messed with Soviets – or Soviet citizens.
A small part of the Viktor Bout story below.
Viktor Bout (C), Russian arms dealer, in U.S. custody after being flown from Bangkok to New York Photo: AP
One morning in late December, I went to the prison to meet Bout. In a conference area, a few prisoners, wearing brown jumpsuits without handcuffs, sat in plastic chairs, holding legal documents. When word reached the guards that Bout was headed downstairs, they cleared out the other prisoners and covered the room’s sole window.
The sound of chains and jangling keys heralded his arrival. Surrounded by two guards, Bout inched forward, shackled at his ankles, wrists, and waist. The guards unfastened his cuffs, then left Bout and me alone. He wore an orange jumpsuit, navy slippers, and orange socks. Gesturing toward the guards, he said that watching over him had “become almost a religion for them.” We sat at a circular table. His voice was soft, his sentences punctuated by wan smiles. “The special-housing unit?” he said. “Solitary confinement? Even the U.N. says that solitary confinement is torture.” (He was referring to a recent report by the U.N. special rapporteur on torture, which had called for a ban on solitary confinement.) “I am being tortured twenty-four hours a day.”
Gerald Posner, a journalist and a lawyer who had advised Bout for a time, pro bono, recalls that when they first met Bout hadn’t wanted to discuss his case; rather, he wanted to “talk about black holes and how Stephen Hawking was overrated.” I have a faltering grip on two of the languages Bout speaks—Persian and Urdu—and, after exchanging pleasantries in them, Bout dilated on the legacy of Persian poetry, which he called “the language of love,” and the importance of reading Ferdowsi’s epic poem “Shahnameh” for understanding the Iranian, Afghan, and Tajik psyche. Recently, he said, he had read several books about harsh detention and survival. He praised Laura Hillenbrand’s “Unbroken” and encouraged me to read Henri Charrière’s “Papillon.”
We met four times, between late December and mid-February. Two weeks after my first visit, having started “Papillon,” I pointed out that toward the beginning of the book Charrière lays out his plan to seek revenge on the people responsible for his incarceration. I asked Bout if he felt similar rage. “Why should I feel aggressive toward these people?” he said. “They are sleepwalking men.” He went on, “The D.E.A. has become worse than drug dealers. At least drug dealers have ethics.”
The longer we sat in the small, musty room, the more the tempered side of Bout’s personality receded. I asked whether he felt any remorse. “I did nothing in my mind that qualifies as a crime,” he replied. “Sure, I was doing transportation of arms,” he said. “But it was occasionally. Three hundred and sixty days were normal shipments. For five days, I shipped arms and made a couple of hundred thousand dollars.” (Mirchev, by contrast, recalls a period of “almost daily flights” for UNITA.)
As for his fateful lapse of caution, he said, “If it was a trap and I fell into it, O.K. But what did I do? Did I declare myself to go to fucking Colombia? Did I grab a gun and go to kill an American? I just want a big country like China or Russia to do this to an American. Will you also call it justice?” He was practically spitting out the words. “This is not justice. It’s a minefield. What you people don’t understand is that it’s coming for you next. You’re living in a police state. Everything your Founding Fathers got, you’re giving back. It’s like Stalin’s time. You can be arrested for just saying—no, thinking—something. ‘Oh, he’s an arms dealer,’ they say. Why do they say this? Because I’m Russian!”
Bout had stood up and was leaning across the table, his face inches from mine. “Do you people have the moral standing to ask this question? Who are you to judge me? You have authority over me, but you don’t have power over me!”
On February 3rd, Dayan requested that Bout be moved out of solitary confinement. In a hearing five days later, Judge Scheindlin agreed, saying that Bout’s prison conditions seemed “brutal” and “unnecessary.” On the tenth, Suzanne Hastings, the warden at the prison, appeared in court to tell Scheindlin that she thought Bout’s status was “appropriate,” as he posed a threat to the guards, other prisoners, and himself.
“I don’t know what to say,” Scheindlin replied, adding that Bout struck her as “a businessman.” She went on, “You may not like the business he is in—but he is a businessman. I never heard any evidence that he personally had been involved in violence or terrorist acts. . . . He is an arms dealer. We have lots of arms dealers here, too. Sometimes they cross the lines as criminals, sometimes not. This is a business.”
On February 24th, Judge Scheindlin ordered that Bout be transferred to the general prison population. “Although I recognize that courts are loathe to interfere with questions of prison administration,” she said, “I cannot shirk my duty under the Constitution.” This ruling not only improved Bout’s immediate circumstances; it also seemed like a signal that Scheindlin would not recommend that Bout be assigned to the kind of “super-max” facility that keeps all inmates in solitary confinement—a prospect that Dayan recently compared to being “buried alive.”
A long prison term still awaits, however. On March 12th, Bout, who turned forty-five not long ago, will receive a sentence of between twenty-five years and life. “They will try to lock me up for life,” Bout told me. “But I’ll get back to Russia. I don’t know when. But I’m still young. Your empire will collapse and I’ll get out of here.”
via Viktor Bout, Arms Dealer, and His Rise and Fall : The New Yorker.
I am glad that that no Indians figured as a significant player in this tale across the world.
Related Articles
- Russia to request US extradition of notorious arms dealer (jurist.org)
- Viktor Bout’s attorney pushes for retrial (english.ruvr.ru)
- Russian arms dealer gets below-guideline federal sentence of 25 years (sentencing.typepad.com)
- Russia submits Bout extradition papers to US (english.ruvr.ru)
- Viktor Bout’s first exclusive interview after transfer to Illinois prison (english.ruvr.ru)
- Viktor Bout’s legal battle takes Bangkok bounce (rt.com)
- Bout says ‘yes’ for Russia to ask US for extradition (rt.com)
- Viktor Bout associates exploited flaws in international law, UN study finds (guardian.co.uk)
Intrigued? Interested!
The 2ndlook blogs group try to give its readers a 360° view of the past present and probable outcomes. These four blogs have each a different focus. The common value that runs through these blogs is an invite to readers for discussion and participation - with a proviso of no personal attacks or use of invective.
2ndlookWith a focus on history, long-term trends, economy, political and social models. A blog that works to breakdown propaganda for what it is. The first blog of the group, over the four years of its existence, it has managed a monthly traffic of more than 10,000 hits. |
Behind 2ndlookThis forum is a visual record of the times. Historical prints to current cartoons, this is the latest in 2ndlook group of blogs. |
St.PT BarnumA forum that takes a lighter or satirical view of weighty matters. Posts on this forum are rare. |
QuicktakeQuicktake focusses more on current events, recent events, reports, media buzz, matters of topical interests. Typically, Quicktakes are shorter than 2ndlook. Sometimes a few Quicktakes, morph into a 2ndlook post. |
Quicktake’N’
2ndlook on Indus Valley-Saraswati Basin
Exciting new series. From 1 Mar, 2010.
10 posts. More than 50 photographs. 100 links to the best original sources and writers. Get a 2ndlook at the 'Indus Valley Civilization' research. On military, defence, currency, travel, political systems. Cutting edge discoveries. With research from more than 200 news items, journals and books. Without the politics, with insight.
Who’s amung us
Quick Take - As It Happens 