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Indian Secularism: Is There A Rationale For Defensiveness?
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Does Indian society and polity need to defend itself against random barbs of sectarianism? Any quantitative measure would indicate that no grounds exist for such barbs. .
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Twitter exchange between – swapan55- and @_sabanaqvi We have agreement … Screen shot on 2014-04-30 03-35-10 | Click on image to go actual tweet message
fter having to give away Pakistan and Bangladesh (now), which was about 20% of the Indian land-mass, India by rights could have decided to be a narrow, sectarian country.
End Games
Even before the Indian Partition, Indians in neighbouring countries (e.g. Sri Lanka, Burma) under British influence were expelled, excluded and made into second class citizens.
These were difficult political compromises made by Indian negotiators – to arrive at the outline of current political India. With a broken economy and no military back-up, negotiations with world’s pre-eminent military and economic power were never easy or straight-forward.
In any negotiations, British Raj usually started with an advantage.
Trading Losses
100-years before Independence, in 1840, Britain had already lost Afghanistan – which was a part of the Sikh Empire last ruled by Maharaja Ranjit Singh and founded by Banda Bahadur.
Soon after Independence, Tibet was lost to China – while US made much noise and gave little support. Keeping Communist China with one foot outside the Soviet camp, to US was more important than Tibet or India.
After ceding Pakistan and losing traction in Burma, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Tibet were major blows to India. These were major raw-materials sources for India and markets for Indian output. These countries were also important buffers from land-based military adventurers.
Polity Trends
Worship vs Religion
Can we?
Ignorant Teaching The Blind: Problem with the Parable
To rebut shallow readings of Harishchandra story no external logic, data is needed Answers are in the criticism itself.
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Advertisement for First Indian movie, ‘Raja Harishchandra’, appeared in Bombay Chronicle on 3rd May, 1913.
ndian ignorance of Bharattantra (the classical Indian political system that governed India) is so colossal that it only be seen when ‘respected’ writers expound on Indian classics in mainstream media – from a position of total ignorance and bias.
From Darkness
Take this. We have today a post on Raja Harishchandra which is being faulted for all the values that it stands against.
Below is an excerpt.
Fifty generations have been told to emulate the virtuous monarch. In order to keep his word, Harish Chandra was prepared to endure the worst possible misery. The nobility of this is emphasised in every retelling. Gandhiji, for example, loved the story and, certainly, he lived by this principle of accepting extreme personal hardship in the pursuit of his moral principles.
What is not emphasised is that Harish Chandra was also prepared to put other people through equally great misery, without consulting them, in order to keep his word. He ruined his family and humiliated his wife by forcing her to strip in public (that particular theme has always fascinated Indians). Apart from the patriarchal assumption that his wife and son were disposable goods, he thought his word outweighed his responsibilities as a family man.
We are not told what happened to the kingdom’s per capita income in the period between his abdication and the divine intervention. Perhaps the place prospered. Perhaps not. Either way, Harish Chandra handed over executive responsibilities and the state’s resources to someone with unknown competencies when it came to making executive decisions, or managing state finances. As an absolute monarch, he did not, of course, consult his subjects on the regime transfer.
The story also contains a raft-load of caste stereotypes and biases. Brahmins are good; Kshatriyas are good; corpse disposers are dirty, unless they are gods or Kshatriyas in disguise. The biases and assumptions offer fascinating insights into the social structure of ancient India: absolute monarchy, absolute patriarchy, caste rigidities and a twisted code that placed personal honour above the well-being of the family, or of entire kingdoms. In itself, this would be only of historical interest.
The scary thing is that Harish Chandra’s behaviour is cited as being worth emulating in 21st-century school textbooks. The negative externalities of his behaviour are ignored even in the modern versions of the story. Caste and patriarchal prejudices are reinforced, and the concepts of democratic consultation and consensus are conspicuous by their absence.
By contemporary moral standards, Raja Harish Chandra was a monster. He should have broken his word and taken whatever punishment the Maharishi handed out, sooner than cause this sort of harm to his family. Nor should he have disposed of state resources in this irresponsible fashion and placed the lives and fortunes of all his subjects in potential jeopardy.
Moral standards change. When you read an old story, you have to cherry-pick the moral lessons you should imbibe from it. Unfortunately, as a nation, we seem to have internalised all the wrong lessons from Raja Harish Chandra.
His laudable commitment to the truth and to keeping his word has fallen by the wayside. But the monumental self-absorption and absolute indifference to the well-being of others that he displayed characterise both our public and private behaviour.
The parable also supposedly teaches us to rely upon divine intervention. Raja Harish Chandra beggared himself and abdicated responsibility for the state’s resources. Only divine intervention put things right again. We emulate him as best we can, by playing ducks-and-drakes with our public finances. Unfortunately, divine intervention is not that reliable when it comes to fixing fiscal deficits.
via Devangshu Datta: The problem with the parable | Business Standard.
Usual Stuff …
The writer of this post, Devangshu Dutta (DD), makes the usual five points.
- Rigid caste system
- Absolute monarchy
- State-controlled economy
- Slavery
- Self-absorbed Indians
To see how shallow DD’s reading of Harishchandra story is, no external logic or data is needed. All the answers are in the criticism itself.
Caste System: If Raja Harishchandra could from a king become a chandala to a king again, how rigid was the caste system?
In which society, in the history of the world has a king become a king again after having come down in his life to a lowly status as a chandala?
Rajas & Nawabs: What are the marks of absolute monarchy? Grand palaces, monuments, costly wars, humongous treasuries, over-taxed peasants groaning in misery, oppressive police and soldiery, et al.
How many such elements do we find in Indian history for 4000 years after Raja Harishchandra?
From Indus Valley-Saraswati Basin cities till Mughal India how many monuments do we find? Over-taxed peasants make an entry after Mughal India and the British.
Royal Patronage: It may come as a surprise to DD that the ‘Indispensable’ State was not the engine for Indian economic activity till about 100 years ago.
While economies in the Rest of the World depended on royal patronage, Indians had unfettered right to land and gold. Even currency and coinage were not controlled by the kings. So much for DD’s silly argument of ‘absolute’ Indian monarchs.
This ensured that local and national economy did not depend on royal patronage or initiatives.
Unlike in the ‘modern’ ‘free market’ or socialist economies.
Slavery: Slaves have no control over slavery.
From capture to death, slaves have no control over their destiny – and this loss of liberty has State protection. Indian classics have many stories how kings became ‘dasas’ and later freed themselves from the position of ‘dasas’.
Dasas controlled their servitude – whereas slaves cannot. Indian legal texts expounding Bharattantra have no laws that give State protection to slave-owners. India remains the only society in history that has never given legitimacy to slave owners. It appears that slave owning societies were described as asuric societies.
In fact, there is no Indian word for slaves – except imported words.
Self-absorbed Indians: From Matthew Arnold to Max Muller, we have seen how colonial Britain has painted Indians as inward looking.
Factually, from the Indian woman who was the inn-keeper at Babylon to the Yogi who met Socrates, Indians have travelled the world over. Indians are the second largest diaspora in the world today – after the Chinese. Unlike Christopher Columbus or Vasco da Gama who were sponsored by the State, the Indian diaspora has spread across the world at their own risk –
Without State sponsorship.
The skeptical and unbelievers, will have counter-arguments – which is a valid position. But DD’s post seems to show that as far as Indian classics go …
In modern India, we have the blind leading the ignorant.
Related Articles
- The birth of India’s film industry: how the movies came to Mumbai (guardian.co.uk)
- Academics, eminent citizens dismayed over biases in textbooks (thehindu.com)
- Caste and Sexuality in India (caltech.typepad.com)
Ranking Moms Is Just So Bad An Idea
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Why is this British NGO so desperately putting down moms from Africa?
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No mother is any lesser than any other. To try and show superiority …| Cartoon by Randy Bish, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review – May 10, 2013 via PoliticalCartoons.com
herever in the world it is, bringing up children is a job second to none.
Every mother and father, and societies that help them bring up a child deserve a lot of respect.
To see people scoring points likes this …
For Moms in Finland, every day is Mother’s Day. A new report from the non-profit Save the Children says that the Scandinavian nation is the best country on the globe for mothers to live.
Scandinavia is definitely a good place to be a Mom. Finland, which often places high on education and quality of life in other international lists, is followed by Sweden at no. 2 and Norway at no. 3. In fact, all but one of the top 10 countries where Moms are the safest are European, with Australia placing tenth.
The ten unsafest places for mothers are all located in Central Africa, with the Democratic Republic of Congo ranking worst. An estimated 98% of newborn and 99% of maternal deaths occur in developing countries where basic health care services are scarce.
Check out the top 10 best and worst countries for mothers below, and see the full report here.
Best:
1) Finland
2) Sweden
3) Norway
4) Iceland
5) Netherlands
6) Denmark
7) Spain
8) Belgium
9) Germany
10) Australia
Worst:
167) Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
168) Chad
1
69) Nigeria
170) Gambia
171) Central African Republic
172) Niger
173) Mali
174) Sierra Leone
175) Somalia
176) DR Congo
Proof of the pudding
So, if these Western countries are so good for women and becoming mothers, how come women here don’t want to become mothers often enough?
Why are these top 10 countries having so few babies? Why are their populations shrinking?
Motherhood statements on Mother’s Day that don’t hold up?
Simple statements that these countries have lowest infant mortality, maternal mortality, etc would have been enough.
But if you try ramming in a truck through simple data like this, it looks awfully close to talking down to us in Third World?
And if you know, your own backyard needs fixing, why waste time in putting down other people? Like how children in Britain want a brother /sister more than any other gift for Christmas? Or how the State thinks that it has more rights in naming a child compared to the child’s parents?
If your social systems are so good, why try these kind of dubious tactics to score points over people in Africa, who are down right now.
Pointing fingers at others is …
Bad psychologically.
Bad in ethics.
Not to forget Bad Journalism
Related Articles
- DR Congo ‘worst place for mothers’ (bbc.co.uk)
- What makes a country a good place to be a mother? | Debate of the day (guardian.co.uk)
- World Mothers’ Index: UK Falls To 23rd Place (news.sky.com)
Sunil Tripathi Hoax: Sunny Singh Thrilled To See Someone Go Down?
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The mega-proportions of how social media drove the hoax of Sunil Tripathi’s wrong identification is a lesson for every user of social media.
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he mega-proportions of how social media drove the hoax of Sunil Tripathi’s wrong identification is a lesson for every user of social media.
Some, like Pakistan’s nuclear scientist, did this for amusement – as he clarified early and clearly, that it was sarcasm. AQ Khan’s taste in amusement may still be disputed.
Some like Sunny Singh’s iconic tweet was pure thrill to see someone go down (see image of twitter conversation below). But more than Sunny Singh’s tweet, were all the others who retweeted and favorited this tweet (see slide-show above).
Between the tweeter and the retweeter, more than 100,000 probably saw this one message alone. Now multiply, such a chain into thousands, and that will explain the hysteria around Sunil Tripathi hoax that built up in a matter of hours – and died in a matter of minutes.
Many times a retweet is done to share messages that the user does not agree, approve or endorse. Yet these 27 retweets of Sunny Singh’s infamous message, calls for a look at the judgement of these users. Should such a tweets be forwarded without some kind of qualification?
Introspection time, pee-pul!
Related Articles
- Family hopes release of security camera images will lead to clues in case of missing Brown U. student (boston.com)
- Missing student’s family extends search (foxprovidence.com)
- Missing Brown student spotted on camera (wpri.com)
- Video may show missing Ivy League student (foxnews.com)
- Search goes on for missing Brown student from Pa. (bostonherald.com)
- Search goes on for missing Brown student from Pa. (sfgate.com)
- FBI joins search for missing Brown student (usatoday.com)
- Frustration continues in search for Sunil Tripathi (philly.com)
Twitter – sunnysingh_nw3- Can’t wait for #India’s right … 2013-04-20 16-40-46 | Click for larger image in new window.
Boston Marathon Bombings: Did AQ Khan ‘Celebrate’ The Rise Of ‘Hindu’ Terrorism?
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Did AQ Khan cheer the hoax ‘identification’ of Sunil Tripathi as the Boston Marathon Bomber?.
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Twitter – DrAQ_Khan- @yaqubimmegret @qasimaskari … 2013-04-20 07-58-59
pparently, some who spread the hoax story of Sunil Tripathi as the Boston Bomber are India (+Hindu) haters.
Some like Pakistan’s nuclear scientist, did this for amusement – as he clarified early and clearly.
Some may question AQ Khan’s taste, but it was sarcasm.
Probably, PEW should do a Pakistan study again, using a different questionnaire. The clarifications and questions that came his way, were from Pakistanis.
Probably, this twitter exchange show that as neighbours, it is not essential to love each other.
Civility can be an adequate, even necessary and lone condition.
Related Articles
- ‘Justice Has Won’: Marathon Bombing Suspect Arrested in Watertown (nation.time.com)
- Sunil Tripathi not Boston Marathon bombing suspect (vancouverdesi.com)
- Police Name Boston Marathon Bombing Suspects (businessinsider.com)
- Sunil Tripathi: missing student wrongly identified as Boston Marathon bombing suspect (ndtv.com)
- Live blog: Boston Marathon bombings manhunt (globalnews.ca)
- In Pictures: Bomb disposal crew search car after shoot-out with Boston Marathon bombing suspects (belfasttelegraph.co.uk)
- Second Boston Marathon Bombing Suspect Is In Custody (people.com)
- AQ Khan not contesting vote: party (dawn.com)
Adoration Of The West: Cannot Stop, Cannot Rest, Cannot End
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Yet no Indian leader gets the kind of respect that foreign leaders get in India..
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argaret Thatcher’s death unleashed a wave of grief.
Guess what? In India.
In the last 70 years, the Anglo-Saxon Bloc has gone downhill. From a position of absolute world power to being challenged by China – and now even India.
Yet no Indian leader gets the kind of respect that foreign leaders get in India.
Does it stop here?
Look at this twitter exchange here.
simplistic reading of the tweet can be taken to mean, ‘FBI is the gold standard. And since FBI is taking time, NIA can also take time.’
Going by Praveen Swamy’s general tenor, it is not far-fetched to see what Praveen Swami implies. But for Indian chatterati, twitterati, FBookeratti, bloggeratti, hero worship of the West cannot stop, cannot rest, cannot end.
The last word.
Related Articles
- Lessons From Record Decrease in Japan’s Population (quicktake.wordpress.com)
- Inquiring Minds Would Like To Know: Y U Worry I Ask (quicktake.wordpress.com)
- India’s Solution To Drug Costs: Ignore Patents And Control Prices – Except For Home Grown Drugs (forbes.com)
Lessons From Record Decrease in Japan’s Population
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This commitment by Indian society to universal, lifelong marriage has attracted many, especially women.
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Between the State and the Church, we are seeing unprecedented levels of intervention in our sexual lives | Cartoon by Lee Judge on February 13, 2011
ukushima, Hiroshima, Nagasaki are the not the only nuclear disasters that have hit Japan. The bigger disaster is unfolding in slo-mo.
Japan’s population has dropped by a record 284,000.
As of Oct. 1, 2012, the country’s population was estimated at 127,515,000, down 0.22 percent from the previous year, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said April 16.
The decline is the largest in both number and rate since 1950, when comparable figures were first available.
The population dropped for the second year in a row for the first time.
Japanese society continues to age, with the population of elderly, aged 65 or over, estimated at 30,793,000, up 1,041,000 from the previous year. It was also the first time that the elderly outnumbered children, aged 14 or under, in all 47 prefectures.
The natural decrease, or the difference of deaths and births, was the largest ever at 205,000. This marked the eighth straight year of natural decrease for men and the fourth straight year of natural decrease for women. By prefecture, Tokyo, Saitama and Chiba marked the first instance of a natural decrease.
via Record decrease in Japan’s population – AJW by The Asahi Shimbun.
Maya means … Propaganda … ?
The only reason India is not sitting on a demographic time bomb, is because of our देसी मन्द बुद्धि desi-mand buddhi (rustic minds). Especially from the Indo-Gangetic plains.
This देसी rustic mindset that our ruling elites look at with contempt, did not get fooled by the massive propaganda drive by the West – using the Indian State as its agent.
Not Individuals … But Families As Building Blocks Of Society
The Indian system of family stability is based on three principles: –
1. Universal marriage. In the rest of the world, the rich marry, the poor: –
- Forever chase ‘relationships’
- Associated with prostitution
- Become users of pornography
2. New families funded by families and relatives with income stream from property, profession, business for groom and and start-up capital of gold to bride.
3. Since, all girls and boys, especially during periods of social chaos, political instability (like British Raj) may not find matches, marriages are arranged by social ‘intervention’ to keep the system of universal marriage functional.
People Know …
This commitment by Indian society to universal, lifelong marriage has attracted many, especially women. Indian men are seen by Russian women as ideal husband material. On the other hand, apart from the staggering levels of prostitution, sex-deprivation has triggered a wave of sexual-abuse of children across Europe and US. Widely, but not limited to the Catholic Church system.
Charity … Anyone?
This pattern of sexual misbehavior has claimed a life this time.
Peter Roebuck, a cricket player-coach-writer recently jumped to his death from his 6th floor hotel room in South Africa. After receiving a suspended sentence in an British court for not-so deviant behavior with his South African trainees, he emigrated to Australia.
Similarly, in India too, we have seen these various do-gooders use their ‘charity’ work to gain access to unwilling sexual partners.
Promoted by the Desert Bloc ‘system’ is
– Sexual repression in the masses
– An impossible marriage mechanism with crazed alimony system
– Antagonistic and confrontational gender relations
– A flourishing prostitution industry
– A distorted religious system that promotes celibacy
Charity seems like a facade for gaining access to sexual partners in all these cases. The cause may be the sexual repression rather than dubious charity.
Islamic Demographics
Indian Muslim population is growing because they have persisted with the Indian family model. In West Asia, Islamic populations are meager and much below Indian growth levels. Muslim populations are increasing only in countries where Indian influence is strong – and therefore commitment to universal marriage is strong. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia.
Meher system in all these societies (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia) is nominal, weak. The day Muslims (from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia) become ‘fully’ Muslim, implement the Meher system, their populations will start decreasing.
The only two countries that has come close to India in this metrics are Indonesia and China. Thanks to Mao and Western propaganda, in China that has changed. Progressive Liberals in India are desperate to implement the Chinese model in India also – in connivance with the West.
Seems like Russian women know more about marriage …
Related Articles
- Perils of voyeurism (thehindu.com)
- Sexual repression (lunaticoutpost.com)
- Japan’s population falls by record level (japantimes.co.jp)
- Teen says parents forced her into one-month marriage (foxnews.com)
- “so over marriage equality” – The Feministing Five: Kate Bornstein (thefemmetasticfeminist.wordpress.com)
- Bulgaria with EU’s Lowest Marriage Rate (novinite.com)
- American counties hollow out from aging, finance crisis and youth migration (wired.com)
- Census shows record 1 in 3 US counties are dying (miamiherald.com)
- India is set to become the youngest country by 2020 (thehindu.com)
- Record number of counties losing population (sfgate.com)
Elections In Pakistan: What Can, What If, What’s Up?
Pakistani media and polity seem to be addressing mostly urban issues. How will the rural voter respond?
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Phuttt, phutt, phut …! This is a make or break election for Pakistan. Probably the best organized | Cartoon by Sabir Nazar on March 30, 2013; image source & courtesy – tribune.com.pk
akistan attracts stereotypes to the mind like a swarm of flies.
Inviting Images
Among others, civil war, terrorism, bomb blasts, fundamentalist Islam are common stereotypes about Pakistan. Some of these stereotypes are valid – and some are downright irrelevant.
For instance, more people die in the US due to gun-related violence compared to Pakistan. For another, it is worthwhile to remember and understand that Pakistan has never (in its limited election history) elected a fundamentalist party.
The different sides of Pakistani Polity | Cartoon by Sabir Nazar on August 25, 2008; image source & courtesy – dailytimes.com.pk
This will be the first time in Pakistan’s troubled history that an election will pave the way for transfer of power – and not a coup or martial law. For the first time in nearly seventy years, Pakistan has evaded the ritualized murder of Pakistani polity by the Pakistani army.
The short-shrift given by Pakistan’s power centres to orderly elections and transfer of power is not a stereotype.
This Sauce is Different
The three most significant differences in this election, compared to previous elections are in the manner that Pakistan’s polity has acted to protect the poll outcome. It seems unlikely that there will be any significant post-poll dissonance due to three measures.
Who will do the electioneering for PPP – with Bilawal out of the country? | Cartoon by Sabir Nazar on March 28, 2013; image source & courtesy – tribune.com.pk
It does seem like this will be an election that Pakistan will be proud of.
One – is the appointment of a non-competitive caretaker administration at national level – headed by retired Justice Mir Hazar Khan Khoso, and at the provincial level in Punjab with the appointment of Najam Sethi.
Two – Voter lists have been rigorously updated. Some 3.5 crore voter records were found invalid and deleted – and some 3.9 crore new voters added.
Three – The centre of debate is Pakistan’s economy. Nawaz Sharif is talking of an economic explosion – unlike the nuclear explosion last time. PPP is depending on an income-support scheme for the poor that they have implemented. Imran Khan’s 6-promises are all about bringing peace back to the nation. It has been speculated that the Iran-Pakistan oil pipeline agreement signed by the ruling-PPParty, is to reassure restive voters that it has a solution for electricity shortages plaguing Pakistan.
Pakistani media and polity seem to be addressing mostly urban issues. | Cartoon by Zahoor on February 03, 2010; image source & courtesy – dailytimes.com.pk
Is Popularity Enough?
Imran Khan is by far ahead of all other leaders in Pakistan in terms of personal popularity. His first rally after elections were notified, attracted 1-lakh people – closer to 1.5-lakh people according to some other estimates.
Will Imran Khan’s popularity convert into votes?
In India, for decades, election rallies by Nehru-Gandhi family, starting with Indira Gandhi could attract voters for election rallies – but after 1989 elections has not been able to convert voter turnout into votes.
Is Imran facing a similar challenge? Equally, many popular leaders have converted their personal popularity to votes – especially in South India.
Look Who’s Talking
Radio Pakistan seems to be giving good coverage to Imran Khan going by these tweets.
Print media and Pakistan’s huge satire ‘industry’ however is quite dismissive of Imran Khan. Including the like of MajorlyProfound (now probably under the handle of majorlyp).
https://twitter.com/InvincibleHeart/status/317651280866721792
Many from the English-media are quite dismissive of Imran Khan
Apparently, Musharraf has lived up to his earlier threats. He has returned – to what? A nation that cannot imagine a role for him? | Cartoon by Zahoor on August 15, 2009; image source & courtesy – dailytimes.com.pk
Gear Ratios In A Democracy
PPP may get more women’s votes due to BISP income support scheme. Imran Khan has connected to Pakistan’s youth. Nawaz Sharif is appealing the mature male voter who wants the Pakistan economy to do better. None of these constituencies form a majority.
Finally, the winner may be the party that can get its constituents to come and vote at the polling booth.
The Players
Ex-general Musharraf seems to be n0n-starter and non-entity in Pakistan.
Pakistanis sought to drive home the point that Indians held the former Army chief in greater esteem that his own fellow nationals.
The kind of media coverage his return got in India, and the frequency with which he appears on Indian television channels and gets invited to conclaves organised by the media across the border has raised eyebrows here often enough
Which political unit is connecting to this Pakistani? | Cartoon by Zahoor on March 03, 2006; image source & courtesy – dailytimes.com.pk
Interestingly, Imran Khan’s campaign is well-funded according to some reports.
They were drawn from all over the country through a well-financed and heavily advertised campaign. But they were also drawn, they said, by a simple yet nebulous message. “We want change,”
via Pakistan: Ex-Cricket Star, Ex-President Kick Off Election Campaign | TIME.com.
Imran Khan’s acceptance by Pashtuns, FATA, Pakhtunkhwa makes him a rare leader with acceptance across various segments.
There are concerns among some of Khan’s supporters about his attitude to the Pakistani Taliban – wanting to negotiate with them – and the decision to work with the Jamaat-e-Islami, a hard-line religious party. But the mere fact that he represents a political force that hasn’t been compromised by power works in his favor — as does Khan’s celebrity. “He won us the Cricket World Cup,” says Shah, “he built us a cancer hospital, and he’s really good looking.”
via Pakistan: Ex-Cricket Star, Ex-President Kick Off Election Campaign | TIME.com.
Will this man get taken in shiny projects? | Cartoon by Zahoor on November 22, 2005; image source & courtesy – dailytimes.com.pk
Numbers talk you know …
After 2ndlook called the 2009 Indian election correctly, among many other correct calls, encourages 2ndlook make an attempt at reading Pakistan’s election.
Sixty and seven months ago, when Musharraf was on rampage in Pakistan and Imran Khan was no one in Pakistan’s politics, 2ndlook examined the idea of Imran Khan’s rise in Pakistan.
- It is worthwhile to remember and understand that Pakistan has never (in its limited election history) elected a fundamentalist party – unlike say, Egypt.
- Since none of the three main players are making a fundamentalist Islamic pitch, this factor will affect no one – except some fringe parties.
- What if Imran-PTI consolidate the fringe-parties vote banks – and eat into PPP+PMLN? To me this model of voter behaviour, seems more likely than the static vote bank of PPP+PMLN theory.
- In this election, the main contenders, as per opinion polls in descending order are Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN (32%), Imran Khan’s PTI (18%) and Zardari’s PPP (14%).
- Not many have tried to make a model for opinion polls in Pakistan – which remain unreliable and have limited value. With this caveat made, raw data seems to suggest that PMLN-Nawaz Sharif are in a pole position for this election.
- Most of election analysis stops at Pakistan’s urban centres – while 60% of Pakistani voters are rural. Nawaz Sharif’s Lahore Metro Bus implementation in 11-months has made many political parties nervous. But will the rural Pakistani be impressed?
- Will PPP’s BISP attract more rural voters than Imran’s tsunami? Remember, how Chandrababu Naidu paid a price for ignoring the rural voter.
- After the fresh voter enrollment, nearly half of Pakistani voters now listed, have not voted before. Since most of these young voters are young, they are likely to be drawn towards Imran-PTI.
- Will the Lahore Metro make a difference to Nawaz Sharif? Outside Lahore? Seems unlikely.
Keeping the above factors in mind, what are the likely outcomes.
In the name of the poor and dispossessed … | Cartoon by Zahoor on September 02, 2008; image source & courtesy – dailytimes.com.pk
Scenario-1
Imran-PTI emerge as the single-largest party, with a thin majority – or miss becoming the single largest party by a few seats. Imran dithers. Announces that he will sit in the opposition, as he does not have a clear mandate. PTI MPs defect or PTI splits. Most likely PPP wins over the defector faction. Makes a claim to form government. Zardari agrees. Protests engulf Pakistan.
Scenario-2
As per opinion polls, PMLN emerges as the single largest party. Wins over MPs from PTI-Imran and others. Forms government.
Scenario-3
Opposite of opinion polls, PPP emerges as the single largest party – riding on women’s vote. Wins over MPs from PTI-Imran, PMLN and others. Forms government.
Senario-4
One of the three main parties gets a parliamentary majority – and forms the government. Seems like the most unlikely scenario.
Seemingly, Imran is preparing for a narrow victory. Most importantly, is Imran preparing for a narrow loss?
Related Articles
- Imran Khan: The least bad option? (dawn.com)
- PTI to decide seat adjustment with JI (dawn.com)
- The Return of the General: Why is Musharraf Running for Office in Pakistan? (world.time.com)
- ‘Ideology will beat money in coming elections,’ says Imran Khan (thenewstribe.com)
- US has no favourites in Pakistani political arena (dawn.com)
- Cyber Attack shuts down Election Commission of Pakistan website (ehackingnews.com)
- ECP takes notice of Najam Sethi’s statement (thenewstribe.com)
- Musharraf banned from leaving Pakistan (thehindu.com)
- Najam Sethi to be caretaker chief minister of Punjab (thehindu.com)
- PTI will award tickets to people with good reputation: Imran (dawn.com)
China:The Limits of Central Control
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Chinese Govt drives a consensus with regional govts – using mostly persuasion, sometimes post-facto ratification, rarely central diktat..
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China lifts Uncle Sam; cartoon by rodrigo; on September 02, 2009 Published at http://www.expresso.pt on August 25th, 2009; source & courtesy – toonpool.com
hina’s governance, in reality is contrary to the image widely projected or popularly understood.
Instead of a monolithic, unitary, autocratic dictatorship the Chinese central Government drives a consensus with regional governments – using mostly persuasion, sometimes by post-facto ratification, rarely by central diktat.
Smoke On Water
Probably the worst example of Chinese governance is production and promotion of tobacco smoking by regional governments. As cigarettes are a large part of the revenue for regional governments, cigarette smoking has been passively encouraged. Sometimes even actively.
China’s expenditure on internal policing and law & order is larger than China’s defense expenditure. If the control of the China’s central government was so strong, why is its expenditure on internal security so high?
There are many other elements to the Chinese puzzle.
Bit by bit
Earlier posts had examined the Chinese economy that thrived on exports for the last nearly twenty years aided by and supported with a cheap yuan. Will China go the Japan way?
The mysterious manner in which the Buddhist monk has disappeared from Chinese movies is an ominous feature. Especially when the Buddhist monk has been replaced by gangsters. To this add, how Tibetan protests in the form of self-immolation by priests and nuns have unnerved the Chinese administration.
Coming to foreign policy, Indian media paints a unreal picture of the Chinese threat. Even in the past, in the 1965 and the 1971 India-Pakistan Wars, China maintained a distant attitude towards Pakistan, providing little more than verbal support to Pakistan. Indian Navy in the South China Sea, in alliance with Vietnam, is a significant counter-measure to aggressive posturing by China in the Indian North East.
Catching on and catching up with the emerging China picture.
The reality is that power in China is much less concentrated than it was in the days of Mao and Deng.
Far from being the all-powerful behemoth that some in the west admire for its omnipotence, the central government can often be oddly ineffectual and powerless.
A slightly frivolous but nonetheless instructive example is the government’s complete ban on the construction of golf courses that has been in place since 2004.
Since then the number of golf courses in China has nearly quadrupled. The point is that Beijing produces many well-intentioned laws and regulations that are often not implemented or enforced unless they directly align with the interests of cadres at the lower levels of state power.
The central government can impose its will and mobilise the nation when it absolutely has to but it uses up an enormous chunk of political capital every time it does that.
Because of this, China’s leaders tend to spend a lot of time giving positive speeches but they only really swing into action when faced with a serious crisis.
A good example was the Sars epidemic that emerged from southern China almost exactly 10 years ago and presented the now outgoing administration of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao with their first big test at the outset of their time in office.
After trying first to cover it up they finally responded by mobilising the entire country and eventually brought the disease under control. Mr Xi and his team have not yet been tested with their equivalent of a Sars moment but when they are it will provide more of an insight into their ability to govern the world’s most populous nation
Related Articles
- China Bans Reincarnation Without Government Permission (huffingtonpost.com)
- China Focus: High local economic growth targets questioned (nzweek.com)
- China arrests 5 Tibetans, mostly Buddhist monks, whom it accuses of inciting self-immolations (vancouverdesi.com)
- China arrests 5 Tibetans for ‘inciting’ immolation (miamiherald.com)
- Two more immolations reported as Tibetan protests continue (thehindu.com)
- China Boosts Defense Spending to Modernize Military Arsenal (bloomberg.com)
- China thinks Android is too dominant, may take action (geek.com)
- Gwadar: A Port For China, A Tinderbox For Balochistan? (rferl.org)
Does The State Have A Right To Decide Children Names?
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Talking of names, in parts of the Free World, names are State policy. Progressive, liberal and modern West.
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any years ago, on a visit to Odisha, I met a gentleman named Duryodhana Nayak. At that time, to me Mahabharata was not itihaas but mythology. I could not imagine or fathom why any parents would name their child after Duryodhana.
The reason I found later, was that Duryodhana married a princess, the daughter of Chitrangadha, the Kalinga king. Kalinga part of the five eastern kingdoms, that included: Anga (east, central Bihar), Vanga (southern West Bengal and Bangladesh), Kalinga (Sea shore of Odisha), Pundra (western Bangladesh and West Bengal, India), Suhma (north-western Bangladesh and West Bengal).
Subsequent search showed that Odisha has many more Duryodhanas. I could find Duryodhana Rout, Duryodhana Kuanr, Duryodhana Singh, Duryodhana Bisoi, Duryodhana Mangaraj, Duryodhana Biswal, a minister named Duryodhana Majhi, Duryodhana Pradhan, Duryodhana Dehury, Duryodhana Mahapatra, Duryodhana Kanhar, Duryodhana Das, Duryodhana Jena, Duryodhana Roy, Duryodhana Samanata, Duryodhana Behera, Duryodhana Satapathy, Duryodhana Das – and Duryodhana Nayak who I met.
Talking of names, in parts of the Free World, names are State policy. In the Progressive, liberal and modern West.
A 15-year-old is suing the Icelandic state for the right to legally use the name given to her by her mother. The problem? Blaer, which means “light breeze” in Icelandic, is not on a list approved by the government.
Like a handful of other countries, including Germany and Denmark, Iceland has official rules about what a baby can be named. In a country comfortable with a firm state role, most people don’t question the Personal Names Register, a list of 1,712 male names and 1,853 female names that fit Icelandic grammar and pronunciation rules and that officials maintain will protect children from embarrassment. Parents can take from the list or apply to a special committee that has the power to say yea or nay.
In Blaer’s case, her mother said she learned the name wasn’t on the register only after the priest who baptized the child later informed her he had mistakenly allowed it.”I had no idea that the name wasn’t on the list, the famous list of names that you can choose from,” said Bjork Eidsdottir, adding she knew a Blaer whose name was accepted in 1973. This time, the panel turned it down on the grounds that the word Blaer takes a masculine article, despite the fact that it was used for a female character in a novel by Iceland’s revered Nobel Prize-winning author Halldor Laxness.
Given names are even more significant in tiny Iceland that in many other countries: Everyone is listed in the phone book by their first names. Surnames are based on a parent’s given name. Even the president, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, is addressed simply as Olafur.
Blaer is identified as “Stulka” — or “girl” — on all her official documents, which has led to years of frustration as she has had to explain the whole story at the bank, renewing her passport and dealing with the country’s bureaucracy.
Her mother is hoping that will change with her suit, the first time someone has challenged a names committee decision in court.Though the law has become more relaxed in recent years — with the name Elvis permitted, inspired by the charismatic rock and roll icon whose name fits Icelandic guidelines — choices like Cara, Carolina, Cesil, and Christa have been rejected outright because the letter “c” is not part of Iceland’s 32-letter alphabet.
The board also has veto power over people who want to change their names later in life, rejecting, for instance, middle names like Zeppelin and X.
Related Articles
- Icelandic girl wins right to name (bbc.co.uk)
- Icelandic girl fights for right to her own name (news.yahoo.com)
- 15-year-old girl with missing moniker set to sue Icelandic government in fight to legally use her name (independent.co.uk)
- Icelandic Girl Fights for Right to Her Own Name (abcnews.go.com)
- Girl fights to use name where only ‘approved’ list allowed (thestar.com)
- Iceland teen known legally as ‘girl’ fights for right to name (foxnews.com)
- Krishna, the messenger (thehindu.com)
- Teen legally known as ‘Girl’ fights for her name (worldnews.nbcnews.com)
- What’s in a name, asks this Icelandic girl! (thehindu.com)
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