Inquiring Minds Would Like To Know: Y U Worry I Ask

Here is a Brown American with a roaring (self-implied) career at UCLA-B. Why does he worry about India. We Indians will manage. Without him and without his help..

Twitter – Interactions 2013-04-18 01-04-59

Interesting!

Here is an American, who has a long list of vituperative tweets about Gandhiji. Most of the time, it is equally bitter tweets about India. (links to tweets = Tweet1, Tweet2, Tweet3).

I mean, here is a Brown American. With a self-declared career at UCLA, Berkeley (if I remember correctly). Why does he spew poison about India 80% of the time?

As an American citizen, should he not be contributing his might to helping his country of choice to come out of an economic recession that poses an existential threat.

No! What does he do?

He goes on and on about India. Why worry about India.

We Indians will manage. Without him and without his help.

Since he has such a high opinion of himself (and I have no reasons to disbelieve his opinion of himself), why does he not extend a helping hand to his own countrymen.

PS: I forget.

Anyone here can figure why he needs to know my paternity?

Anything in my tweets that should make him want to know my paternity? I wonder … Inquiring minds would like to know …

Defense Technology: A World Of Haves & Cannots

In the last 70 years, technology gaps in defence have increased hugely. US and Russia are far ahead from rest of the world in making arms and armaments.

One of the world’s four airworthy Zero fighters sits on the tarmac in August 2011 in California, decked out in its full Pacific War livery. (Image courtesy – ajw.asahi.com; source – Masahide Ishizuka)

big drawback that hobbled Japan in WWII was oil. Japan had aircraft carriers and fighter aircraft – but little oil. In each battle, in the decisive stages of the WWII, oil was in short supply. By the start of WWII, Japan was prepared for war, with its Zero fighters.

In the last 70 years, technology gaps in defence have increased hugely. Countries like India have decided to build their defence capability by importing the latest and the best on one hand. On the other hand, India has launched ambitious R & D projects that are getting close to world standards.

US and Russia are far ahead from rest of the world in making arms and armaments. Coming close to these countries will take decades and billions of dollars – two things that very few countries have. For instance, few countries in the world (US, Russia, UK, France, Italy) can make world-class jet engines for fighter aircraft. Even countries like Japan and Korea, with a strong electronics and industrial base depend on defence imports.

For WWII, Japan produced more than 10,000 fighters – including the famed Zero fighter.

The Zero fighter found in Papua New Guinea undergoes restoration work. (Image courtesy – ajw.asahi.com; source – Masahide Ishizuka)

Masahide Ishizuka, 52, a New Zealand resident originally from Tochigi Prefecture is campaigning to bring one of the four airworthy Zero fighter aircraft in the world back to Japan, where it can fly again in the skies of its homeland.

The Mitsubishi A6M Zero, the mainstay of the Imperial Japanese Navy, was produced by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Nakajima Aircraft. Japan produced about 10,000 carrier-based Zero fighter aircraft during World War II.

In the early stages of the war, the Zero gained a reputation as a fearsome dogfighter with its slick maneuverability, long-distance range and high speed–three important attributes of fighter aircraft.

All four airworthy Zeros today are registered in the United States.

The Zero, a Mitsubishi-produced A6M3 Type 0 Model 22, was found in the 1970s in Papua New Guinea, and was restored to airworthiness by the U.S. collector.

via Aviation expert hopes to return Zero fighter to skies over Japan – AJW by The Asahi Shimbun.

Related Articles

• Japan sends jets after Russian planes (cnn.com)
• 70 years later, a WWII pilot soars once more in a Flying Fortress (warhistoryonline.com)
• F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Singapore’s Next-Generation Fighter? – Analysis (eurasiareview.com)
• WWII Bombers Fly In To Tallahassee Airport (wctv.tv)
• Canada unsure what will replace Hornets (upi.com)

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Immigration Into Britain: Bubble Before The Collapse

This economic ‘trick’ of higher wages, profits, turnover, prices – and a higher GDP creates a brilliant optical illusion. It is called progress.

Was this cartoon a Government effort at building popular opinion on immigration in 1921 – before the passage of the Immigration Act (1924)? | A 1921 cartoon from the US Library of the Congress. Creative and publication credits not available at source.

odern OECD economies have an interesting economic model.

Overpaid waiters charge more for a coffee. Over-paid waiters fork out fancy amounts for a car-wash. Over-paid taxi-drivers pay huge amounts for a haircut.

And so on.

Socialist, Welfare States work best with slavery – or with immi-grunts model, in the last few centuries | Cartoon by Brian Fairrington; earliest date as per internet search 2010.

How Does Over Pricing Work

Compared to, say Indians, Norwegians are paid some 10-20 times more.These overpriced coffees and haircuts by overpaid waiters and barbers, increases GDP – and gives an optical illusion of wealth.

This economic ‘trick’ creates a brilliant optical illusion. Of higher wages, profits, turnover, prices – and GDP. Now replace Norway, with any OECD economy.

Same story and the plot does not change.

A waiter in Mumbai earns between 125-200 dollars. A Norwegian waiter earns closer to US$1500-2000 per month. Both do the same job and the net economic output should not change.

But it does. What Norway does is overstate Norwegian economic output.

By over-paying everybody.

Attracting imi-grunts on one hand – and making it impossible for some others. | Cartoonist: John Deering; Pub. Date: 2013-01-30; source & courtesy – cartoonistgroup.com

Nuggets of Information

Look behind this show …

A recent study concluded that nearly half of American population dies penniless. Spain has a million prostitutes from approximately 10 million women in the 15-50 age group.

What about the apparent wealth? The cars, trains and aeroplanes …

Using over-generous debt, workers can ‘buy’ the latest cars, toasters and lawn-mowers – which creates an illusion of economic well-being. The vast numbers of workers are tied down by increasing amounts of debt – and taxes.

Dos this ‘wealth’ give them freedom? Liberty?

Not if look at the number of people who are in prison. Who are bankrupt and indebted. Who die penniless. But as long as long as you do what the powerful elite wants you to do, you can have the latest cars, toasters and lawn-mowers.

But …

This illusion can be kept standing, only as entry into the labour pool remains low and limited.  This ties in neatly with low-marital rates – and low birth rates. in OECD countries. Low birth rates mean labour shortages – and need for immi-grunts.

High wages attract immi-grunts…

While making promises on one side – and erecting new obstacles. | Published: Wednesday, February 20th, 2013; Immigration Reform cartoon by by Clay Bennett; source & courtesy – timesfreepress.com

And …

To a country like Britain also …

This line of immi-grunts allows British media to be gross and ill-mannered. It gives them the right to talk of ‘booting’ and ‘kicking’ people. Like in this report.

A Home Office report says there may be as many as 863,000 illegal migrants – 70 per cent of whom are living in London.

The study also reveals that 10,000 foreigners who had no legal right to live in Britain have been granted permission to stay under the so-called 14-year rule.

It means they managed to stay in the country for so long without being booted out that the Government has now given up the fight.

The illegal immigrants are a mixture of those who sneaked into Britain in the back of lorries and those who arrived on visas but never went home.

The ‘robust estimate’ of how many illegals are living in the UK comes from the London School of Economics, and is included in a study titled Practical Measures for Reducing Irregular Migration. The LSE found there were between 417,000 and 863,000 illegals living in the UK, with a central figure of 613,000. Ministers accept the figures.

The Home Office says the top five countries from which the illegals have arrived are believed to be India, Nigeria, Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh.

This is based on the nationalities of those people the authorities have detected.

Earlier this month, the official Census showed that 7.5million people who were born abroad were living here in 2011, of whom more than half have arrived since 2001.

The Home Office study sets out for the first time how many beneficiaries there have been of the 14-year rule.

This states that, once a migrant has lived in the UK for this long, he or she will have established a right to a family life and should not normally be kicked out.

via Enough illegal migrants to fill three cities the size of Newcastle: 863,000 of them in UK, study finds | Mail Online.

What would be just great is if Brazil decided to throw out British businesses – who are seeking to exploit Brazilian opportunities.

Theresa May, the British home secretary, faces a row with cabinet colleagues over proposals to impose visa restrictions on Brazilians, underlining the tensions between the search for economic growth and the need to recognise public concern over immigration.

Ms May’s plans to tighten rules for Brazilians is a serious test for the coalition, as it tries to balance conflicting priorities. Ministers fear the restrictions will cast a shadow over British relations with Brazil, a fast-growing economy that David Cameron has targeted as a key trading partner for Britain. The Home Office is already fighting criticism from tour groups and UK luxury retailers that the complex process of obtaining a tourist visa in China is preventing high-spending Chinese nationals from entering the UK.

Mr Cameron and Nick Clegg, deputy prime minister, have both visited Brazil since the election and have tried to bolster trade links. But Ms May believes the country is also the source of much illegal immigration to Britain.

The home secretary will propose ending the current agreement, which allows Brazilians to visit Britain for up to six months without a visa. Her suggestion comes as countries such as the US and Australia are taking the opposite course by easing visa restrictions with Brazil, to encourage tourism and business ties.

William Hague, foreign secretary and George Osborne, chancellor, are among those who have clashed with Ms May over her operation of Britain’s visa regime.“The Home Office is in favour of new visa restrictions but everyone else in the cabinet is basically against,” said a person involved in the discussions.

Lord Mandelson, the former Labour minister and EU trade commissioner, said the idea was “certifiably mad”.

Only last summer, Mr Cameron visited São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro accompanied by a 58-strong business delegation, to develop better trade ties with the $2.3tn-a-year economy. According to UK Trade & Industry, 14 government ministers have visited Brazil over the past 18 months.

Home Office figures for 2011 show that Brazil is fifth in the top 10 of illegal immigrant nationalities in the UK, with more than 2,000 forcibly removed that year.

via UK set to tighten Brazilian visa rules – FT.com.

The racism behind the British immi-grunt debate is papered over. Worth looking at some British Government statistics.

Long-stay immigrants into the UK from Poland, India and China are outnumbered by Germans, South Africans, North Americans, people from the white Commonwealth and returning Britons.

Official figures show that of the top ten migrant countries in 2008, 137,000 were from the first group and 152,000 from the second group.

There is no debate in the media, among politicians and among the public concerning North Americans and the white Commonwealth.

The fact that they ‘take jobs’ in the UK does not feature as an issue among those who are most concerned about immigration.

The anti-immigration campaign group Migration Watch and UKIP create fear about immigration numbers and fail to point out that immigrants include people from Australia, US, New Zealand and others.

The figures are contained in the Office for National Statistics latest annual report on migration, Migration Statistics 2008, http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm71/7197/7197.pdf

Of those intending to stay for a long period, the report states:

British, 77,000 (i.e. UK citizens returning to the UK)

Poland, 54,000

India, 48,000

China, 18,000

Germany, 18,000

Pakistan, 17,000

USA, 15,000

South Africa, Australia, Italy, 14,000

The report suggests that many of the Indian, Chinese and perhaps Pakistani long-stay migrants are students. In terms of all visitors and migrants into the UK, the report states: ‘Citizens of the United States of America (USA) comprised 32 per cent of total non-EEA admissions, the nationality with by far the most admissions, representing an increase of 6 per cent to 4.1 million in 2006. The next three nationalities with the highest numbers of admissions were Australia (up 8 per cent to 1.1 million), Canada (up 11 per cent to 1.0 million) and India (up 23 per cent to 0.8 million).’

It is likely that most illegal immigrants are from North America and white Commonwealth countries.

According to the Institute for Public Policy Research, few people sneak into the country undetected so most illegal immigrants are overstayers, or people who stay in the UK beyond their entitlement.

There are few figures concerning overstayers by country. When Australia checked their overstayers in 2005, they found the top countries were the US and Britain.

via UK Indymedia – Most illegal migrants likely to be white.

Related Articles

• Ed Miliband: ‘Labour got immigration wrong’ (standard.co.uk)
• Ed Miliband: ‘We were wrong, we do need to cut low-skilled immigration’ (standard.co.uk)
• Agency’s £30m for failing to eject illegal immigrants from Britain (express.co.uk)
• UK visas for Brazilians: are we bothered? (blogs.ft.com)
• Miliband: Low-Skill Immigration Is Too High (news.sky.com)
• Theresa’s leadership challenge? It sounds like Downing Street May have a fight on its hands… (independent.co.uk)
• Diane Abbott on warpath over Ed’s immigration mea culpa (theweek.co.uk)
• Labour immigration policy will focus on short-term student visitor visas (guardian.co.uk)
• Labour to call for end to student visitor visa loopholes (standard.co.uk)
• Bulgaria Hits out at Being Used as a Scapegoat by Britain (novinite.com)

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UK loses top AAA credit rating

British Economy: What solution? Import another 100-Lakshmi Mittals+Ratan Tatas..

British companies are making third-grade acquisitions abroad – which is not helping British industry to stay the course | Cartoon on Jan 15 2013 by Randy Bish via Cagle.com

he combined debt of the UK economy – State, Corporate and household debt is at a staggering 500% of the GDP. This is the debt that the UK economy has to support. Assuming weighted average interest rates on this debt is at a low 5%, it means that the UK economy is spending 25% of its production on interest payments.

Since the savings rate of the UK is low-to-negative, it means that the UK economy will borrow more – just to make interest payments.

What could be a solution?

Massive inflation to get this debt down quickly.

Or slowly ratchet down the debt, and write-offs, low-inflation,  and desperate prayers that the economy:

1. Hits another North Sea oil
2. Builds another 1000 ARM-chips kinds of company
3. Imports another 100-Lakshmi Mittals+Ratan Tatas.

How likely is any of this?

The UK has lost its top AAA credit rating for the first time since 1978 on expectations that growth will “remain sluggish over the next few years”.

The ratings agency Moody’s became the first to cut the UK from its highest rating, to Aa1.

Moody’s said that the government’s debt reduction programme faced significant “challenges” ahead.

The UK has had a top AAA credit rating since 1978 from both Moody’s and S&P.It added that the UK’s huge debts were unlikely to reverse until 2016.The UK’s net sovereign debt was the equivalent of 68% of the country’s annual economic output, or GDP, at the end of last year.All three major credit agencies last year put the UK on “negative outlook”, meaning they could downgrade its rating if performance deteriorates.Germany and Canada are the only major economies to currently have a top AAA rating – as much of the world has been shaken by the financial crisis of 2008 and its subsequent debt crises.

via BBC News – UK loses top AAA credit rating for first time since 1978.

Without Comment: Gun Ownership in Germany

Germany is at No.4 on licenced gun-ownership numbers..

Germany’s Gun Population | Image source & courtesy – spiegel.de

Germany’s National Firearms Register, which came into effect on Jan. 1, 2013, recently published its first statistics. A total of 5.4 million legal weapons are registered with private owners in the country. The most are registered in the state of Bavaria (1.1 million), followed by North Rhine-Westphalia (1 million) and Baden-Württemberg (700,000). Approximately 550 German authorities submitted data. The introduction of the register is broadly seen as a political reaction to killing sprees in Erfurt in 2002 and Winnenden in 2009. Moreover, the European Union has stipulated that all member states must launch central firearms registers by the end of 2014. Germany has the fourth highest per capita number of legal firearms, lower than the United States, Switzerland and Finland — but higher than Mexico, South Africa and Russia. Germany’s largest police union, the GdP, estimates there are up to 20 million illegal firearms in Germany.

via Information Graphic: Gun Ownership in Germany – SPIEGEL ONLINE.`

Related Articles

• Does Gun Ownership Promote Suicide? (reason.com)
• Washington State Senators Seek to Criminalize Gun Ownership (thenewamerican.com)

 

Currency Trade: War or Peace?

Now that Japan has joined the currency devaluation game, it leaves the Euro twisting in the winds of currency storms.

The yen, trading at about 87 per dollar, has shed about 11 percent since mid-November when Shinzo Abe, who became Japan’s new prime minister following elections last month, promised a more aggressive monetary policy. | Graphic source & courtesy – cnbc.com

iven a choice between a Japanese car and Chinese, almost any car buyer in the world will opt for a Japanese brand.

If price difference is small.

But as we know the price difference between Japanese and Chinese cars (and other products also) is rather big.

How the Yen has become expensive. From nearly 290 yen:1 USD to 80 yen:1 USD | Graphic credit – wsj.net

The big reason for this price difference?

The Japan Case

Though not the only reason, the high cost of the Japanese Yen after the Plaza Accord (September 22, 1985) has painted the Japanese economy into a corner.

Japan on Thursday reported a record annual trade deficit in 2012, the second straight year in the red for an exporting nation that has long built its wealth on its vast trading surpluses.

The annual trade gap of 6.93 trillion yen (about $78 billion) was brought about by surging fuel imports and a continued slide in machinery shipments and other mainstay exports. The deficit underscores the challenges Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces as he tries to lift the world’s third-largest economy out of years of stagnation.

The deficit also brings to the forefront the risks that accompany Mr. Abe’s bid to revive the economy through government spending, which will add to Japan’s public debt, already more than twice the size of its economy. For years, export surpluses helped Japan finance that enormous debt without having to turn to foreign investors.

But that delicate balance is now unraveling. The global economic crisis set off a fall in Japanese exports, and also caused the yen to strengthen, weighing on the country’s competitiveness and recovery. The prolonged shuttering of the country’s nuclear reactors in the wake of the Fukushima crisis has led to a spike in Japan’s imports of oil and gas. A bitter territorial spat with China has hurt exports to Japan’s biggest trading partner.

The provisional data released by the Finance Ministry on Thursday showed exports continued to fall in December at a faster pace than forecast by economists, despite a weakening of the yen that should have come as a boon to exporters.

According to the data, Japan’s annual trade deficit jumped by 170 percent from the 2.56 trillion yen shortfall it recorded in 2011 to 6.93 trillion yen. Energy imports, mainly from the Middle East, surged, machinery and car exports fell across the board. By region, Japan’s exports to China tumbled by 10.8 percent, leaving Japan with a trade deficit of 3.52 trillion yen (about $40 billion) with its rising neighbor. Exports to the struggling European Union also fell by 15 percent.

Trade with the United States was brisk, however, with exports climbing 11.7 percent and imports by 2.5 percent for a 5.1 trillion yen (about $58 billion) surplus. Japanese automakers did particularly well in the United States last year, rebounding from production cuts brought about by Japan’s 2011 tsunami.

via Japan Reports a $78 Billion Trade Deficit for 2012 – NYTimes.com.

BoJ’s asset-purchase program has trailed other big central banks | Graphic source & courtesy – economist.com

The expensive Yen has increased the price of Japanese exports. Decreasing export-growth due to an expensive Yen, has led to a 20-year economic stagnation-deflation situation in Japan – now referred to as Japan’s Lost Decades (失われた10年 Ushinawareta Jūnen).

Could Japan’s actions to depreciate the Yen have been unilateral?

Highly unlikely.

Japan is the latest country to say enough is enough. Having seen its currency appreciate dramatically in recent years, prime minister Shinzo Abe’s new government is taking steps to alter the country’s exchange-rate dynamic – and is succeeding. In just over two months, the yen has weakened by more than 10% against the dollar and close to 20% against the euro.

via Currency war could cause lasting damage to world economy | Business | guardian.co.uk.

Japan’s new government has vowed to revive the economy and expectations for aggressive monetary easing are running high. This sets the scene for the yen to weaken to the 100-mark versus the dollar.

The yen, trading at about 87 per dollar, has shed about 11 percent since mid-November when Shinzo Abe became Japan’s new prime minister last month, promised a more aggressive monetary policy.

Keen to tackle the deflation that has dogged Japan’s economy for years, “The yen has fallen quickly and once it gets going, it gets going. What kind of number (in dollar/yen) do you need to fight deflation? I think we need to see dollar/yen at 110, 20 to say you’re on top of the deflation problem,” Jerram added.

Inflation in Japan fell 0.2 percent in November from a year earlier, after a 0.4 percent decline in October. A weak currency, brought about by aggressive monetary easing would help boost inflation, analysts say.

Japan’s current account surplus fell 29.4 percent in October from a year earlier to 376.9 billion yen ($4.58 billion) on a fall in exports.

They say another reason to expect further yen weakness this year is a brighter outlook for the global economy, which means there is more incentive for Japanese investors to put their money overseas.

“Everything is in place for a move in dollar/yen to 100, the only constraint being resistance from other major central banks to anyone else adopting a weak currency,” Societe Generale said.

via Picture This: The dollar at 100 Yen.

The Chinese Knot

A cheaper Japanese Yen affects China the most.

Any major currency appreciation, devaluation in the last 60-years has happened under the (what 2ndlook calls) USCAP system.

So, the noises being made of currency wars by Germany is probably to quieten other claims for currency depreciation – like Korea, Euro zone, Taiwan, Asian Tigers, et al.

Decreasing exports, incomes coupled with high production capacities has put Japan on the path of deflationary spiral. | Graphic credits embedded.

China seeks to replace the former Soviet Russia as the challenger to Pax Americana. This challenge by China to Pax Americana is based on manufacturing prowess and huge foreign currency reserves.

China’s Yuan has already appreciated to a 20-year high. In the current global scenario, China’s currency situation puts it in a weak situation. China’s economic engines will seize, if the Japanese Yen were to depreciate to ¥110-120.

EU’s Sports Complex

The interesting point is how EU manages its trade deficit. Without blaming China-Yuan.

EU-zone countries like Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, are on the verge of a sovereign default. Euro-zone is upto its gills in debt. The Euro is being called names. And EU is not snivelling about the Yuan and China?

Very un-European!

USA, EU Trade Balance with Oil Producers (Graphic source and courtesy – http://www.eurotrib.com). Click for larger image.

Usually…

Europe is at the forefront seeing dangers, damage, affronts, threats, effects, fall-outs et al.

The whole she-bang!

But in case of China and Yuan, Europe is not doing much of crying about the ‘undervalued’ Yuan. The Euro revaluation from USD 1.6 four years ago to USD 1.25 now is a recent affair.

So, not of much consequence. The Yuan undervaluation has been on the US agenda for a few years now – with varying intensities. Euro-trade balance with China is slightly in China’s favour. All in all, good management by the Euro-zone, it appears.

Which in the current scenario is the one-bright-spot on the Euro-horizon!

In today’s world, no significant group of countries is looking for currency strength. Some resist appreciation actively and openly; others do so in a less visible manner. Only the eurozone seems to accept being on the receiving end of other countries’ actions.

via Currency war could cause lasting damage to world economy | Business | guardian.co.uk.

The German Footprint

Behind the Euro-zone is the Germanic template.

In the last twenty years, Germany has absorbed East Germany, without a hiccup. During the same period Japan entered into a deep stagnation-deflation phase – but not Germany. While the world succumbed to Chinese manufacturing onslaught, the German industrial complex kept humming – steadily. While the US economy stumbled from bankruptcy of the auto-industry to the dotcom bust and is now deep into the housing crisis, the German economy remained stable.

All this without seeking competitive currency devaluation.

countries nowadays, including systemically important ones, are already actively weakening their currencies. Yet, because an exchange rate is a relative price, all currencies cannot weaken simultaneously. How the world resolves this basic inconsistency over the next few years will have a major impact on prospects for growth, employment, income distribution, and the functioning of the global economy.

via Currency war could cause lasting damage to world economy | Business | guardian.co.uk.

Wars Before The War

WWII was preceded by 15-years (1921-1936) of currency devaluations. Will history repeat? Will the US take a break after ending the Afghan War in 2014 to start WWIII?

Related Articles

• Japan reports record $78.3B trade deficit in 2012 (miamiherald.com)
• Yen at 100 Per Dollar Endorsed by Japan Official Nishimura – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• Japanese Export Slide Bolsters Abe’s Case for Driving Down Yen – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• Business › Japan reports record Y6.93 tril trade deficit in 2012 (japantoday.com)
• Japan min-not trying to weaken yen, central bank (uk.reuters.com)
• Japan minister: not trying to weaken yen, central bank (news.yahoo.com)
• Japan December Industrial Output Rises Less-Than-Forecast 2.5% – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• Dollar Thrives in Age of Competitive Devaluations – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• Better Factory Output, Lower Manufacturing PMI Contraction Put Japanese Economy On The Path Of Recovery (ibtimes.com)
• Japan runs record trade deficit (bbc.co.uk)

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Did India Supply Swedish-Made Arms to Myanmar?

Is this how India broke China’s ‘lock’ on Myanmar?

Why start a war that can be the end of Pax Americana! The US is happy flexing its muscles against the Iraqs and Afghanistans of this world. | By Tjeerd Royaards on October 06, 2010 | Source & courtesy – toonpool.com

or some time, Myanmar seemed lost to India – and a part of China’s string-of-pearls military bases.

Taking advantage of a closer relationship with the US, without increasing distance with China, India needs a delicately nuanced foreign policy.

Is this how the Myanmar deadlock was broken by India?

India is investigating how Swedish-made weapons bought by its army turned up in Myanmar, a minister visiting Yangon said Dec. 15, denying New Delhi had supplied arms in contravention of EU sanctions.

Sweden asked India on Dec. 13 to clarify how the weapons wound up in Myanmar after it was revealed the Indian Army had purchased them,

Pictures taken in Myanmar and published in Swedish media this week showed a Carl Gustaf M3 anti-tank rifle and ammunition left behind by Myanmar government soldiers.

The weapon’s serial number is clearly visible in one of the photographs.

“One thing is clear … we are not in the business of supplying weaponry,” Salman Khurshid, Indian Minister of External Affairs, told reporters in Yangon.

“We will try to find out how this happened. It’s one weapon, isn’t it? In a very big world, one single weapon has been identified,” he said, adding that the Indian Army will check its inventory as part of the probe.

According to a story published in The (London) Independent, the Swedish weapons were used by Myanmar troops in their fight against ethnic Kachin rebels in the country’s far north.

via India Probing How Swedish-Made Arms Found Way to Myanmar | Defense News | defensenews.com.

Related Articles

• Sweden asks India to clarify arms presence in Myanmar (dawn.com)
• India ‘supplied’ Burma embargoed weapons (nation.com.pk)
• Swedish weapons, bought by Indian Army, found in Myanmar (indianmilitarynews.wordpress.com)
• Aso Leads Japan Push Into Myanmar Dominated by China (bloomberg.com)
• Myanmar to allow private daily newspaper publication (nzweek.com)
• Myanmar reaffirms pledge in boosting ASEAN-India relations (nzweek.com)
• Asian Giants Revise Myanmar Policy (irrawaddy.org)
• India probing presence of Swedish arms in Myanmar (straitstimes.com)
• India probes Swedish arms in Burma (thelocal.se)

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Mumbai should do something about its filth: London mayor, Boris Johnson

Should we keep increasing the garbage, waste and filth we generate – and pay more to pollute more.

Is this what we want Mumbai to become? A garbage producing leader! | Garbage city cartoon by Norbert Niessen on May 08, 2011 ; source & courtesy – toonpool.com

umbai should do something about its garbage and filth.

“While it may look inappropriate for me to be saying this, Mumbai should do something about the filth and squalour around,” said mayor of London Boris Johnson. He was speaking to DNA on the sidelines of an interaction organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).

via Mumbai should do something about its filth: London mayor – India – DNA.

I actually agree with Boris Johnson. Mumbai should do something about its garbage and filth.

Reduce it.

We cannot keep increasing the garbage, waste and filth we generate – and pay more to pollute more. Should Mumbai and other Indian cities work to create the another island of plastic waste that now floats in the Pacific and the Atlantic. The Great Pacific Garbage Patch – a few times the size of India, and some studies claim 20 metres deep.

Sometime back, carcass parts were found in Cairo garbage bins – a public-safety hazard | Cartoon source & courtesy – ahram.org

Or a situation like Cairo, when animal carcass parts were found in garbage bins – a public-safety issue.

The Indian State increasingly a captive of Big Business, cannot think small. It is very possible to have methane-from-organic-waste; waste water recycling in Mumbai, with its super-dense population. Unlike Delhi, which is widely spread.

We cannot have the ‘modern’ model of urban cleanliness. And till we find a better model, we better tolerate and live with the garbage and filth we generate.

Related Articles

• London mayor wants more Bollywood films shot in capital (dawn.com)
• Boris knocks British business for six in India (itv.com)
• London mayor to lead business team to India (news.in.msn.com)
• Boris Johnson: UK could learn from India over airports (standard.co.uk)

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South Korea Space Program: Latest Launch Cancelled Minutes Before Schedule

Industrial development as much about technology denial and politics as business considerations. Take S Korea’s space program. for instance.

Korea Space Launch Vehicle-1 at the Naro Space Center launch pad in Goheung, South Korea,Thursday, Nov. 29, 2012. South Korea on Thursday cancelled the launch of its first satellite into orbit from its own soil. | Image by Yonhap, Shin Jun-hee/ Associated Press –

South Korea on Thursday scrapped an attempt to fire its first satellite into orbit from its own soil amid speculation that North Korea was preparing to fire its own long-range rocket.

Scientists in South Korea cited technical problems with the rocket’s flight control system. It’s the second time in a month that Seoul has been forced to cancel a launch at the last minute as it attempts to join an elite group of nations that have launched satellites from their own land.

But it is North Korea’s rocket program that has raised worry in recent days. Two South Korean officials said Thursday that there are signs of preparations at a North Korean rocket site on the northwest coast.

A North Korean long-range rocket broke apart shortly after liftoff in April, but the attempt drew United Nations condemnation and worsened already tense relations between the Koreas.

Washington and Seoul say Pyongyang uses such rocket launches to develop missiles that could target the United States. Technology employed in scientific rocket launches can be easily converted into use for missiles.

North Korea says its launch attempts are part of a peaceful space program and are meant to put satellites into orbit.

South Korea has launched domestically-made satellites aboard foreign-made rockets from other countries since 1992.

South Korea’s 142-ton Naro’s first stage is built by Russia. Its South Korean-made second stage is meant to release a scientific satellite once it reaches orbit.

via North Korea rocket launch speculation overshadows cancelled South Korean satellite launch – The Washington Post.

I am a little curious.

Why is South Korea, a country in the US sphere of influence, chasing Russia for this technology? Could this technology not be developed in collaboration with the West. There are no sanctions by the West on South Korea.

S Korea’s space program also proves that probably alliances and diplomacy count for as much as industrial depth and capacity. Korea’s industry depth is definitely greater than India’s – yet it is struggling in its space program. Also makes one understand what Indian scientists and diplomats have managed with years of sanctions by the US.

Seoul wants to make another attempt to send the satellite into space between November 9 and 24 after last month’s rocket launch was cancelled because of a defective part.

“We’ve been asking Russia to give a green light at the earliest possible date, but we don’t know when we will have the parts,” Kim Yeon-Hak, a deputy director at the science ministry, told AFP.

The October 26 launch was cancelled after engineers detected a broken rubber seal in the connector between the launch pad and the rocket’s first stage.

Kim Seung-Jo, president of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, said the parts must arrive no later than Wednesday if the rocket is to be launched on or before November 24.

After two failures in 2009 and 2010, the upcoming exercise is considered crucial for South Korea’s efforts to join an elite space club that includes China, Japan and India.

It will take at least 10 days after the parts arrive to refit the rocket and put it back on the launch pad on the south coast, Kim Seung-Jo said Monday.

Should the launch be put off again, South Korea would reset the period through consultations with international space agencies, he said. Dates for the launch period are conveyed to international agencies to minimise risks to ships and aircraft that could pass near the flight path.

The 140-tonne Korea Space Launch Vehicle-1 (KSLV-1) has a first stage manufactured by Russia and a solid-fuel second stage built by South Korea. The technical problem that aborted last month’s launch was not described as serious but the damaged rubber seal was sent back to its Russian manufacturer for inspections.

After two failures in 2009 and 2010, the upcoming exercise is considered crucial for South Korea’s efforts to join an elite space club that includes Asian powers China, Japan and India.

In 2009 the rocket achieved orbit but faulty release mechanisms on the second stage prevented proper deployment of the satellite. The 2010 effort saw the rocket explode two minutes into its flight, with both Russia and South Korea blaming each other.

South Korea is a late entrant into the world of space technology and is eager to get its commercial launch programme up and running.

via S.Korea urges Russia to send rocket parts swiftly.

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Related Articles

• South Korea cancels latest rocket launch attempt (foxnews.com)
• South Korea scraps satellite launch amid fears North Korea is preparing to fire its own long-range rocket (news.nationalpost.com)
• S.Korea to attempt third rocket launch (edition.cnn.com)
• South Korea Says It Cancels Plan to Launch Space Rocket Today – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
• South Korean rocket launch called off during countdown (slashgear.com)
• South Korea to Fire Rocket as Eyes Turn to North’s Site (bloomberg.com)
• South Korea to make new attempt to put satellite in orbit (cnn.com)

The Future Of War Is Bright

Does war and mass destruction have a future? 500 years of war, genocide by the West will continue – unless the West is disarmed.

The scramble for Africa in the closing years of 19th century was a disaster for Africa | Cartoon by Edward Linley Sambourne (1844–1910) on The Rhodes Colossus: Caricature of Cecil John Rhodes, after he announced plans for a telegraph line and railroad from Cape Town to Cairo. on 10 December 1892 in Punch

Propaganda

False ideas.

Academia floats. Media promotes.

Take this study by Norwegian University (@UniOslo) on the future of war.

It is now 25 years since Africa’s population surpassed that of China and India: it now stands at 2.8 billion.

This mix of futurology and fiction is one of the possible answers to what the world will look like in 2050. Part of the reason that future wars in now relatively peaceful countries such as Mozambique – whose civil war is now 30 years in the past – and Tanzania is the contention that war itself is going to become far less common.

Havard Hegre, a professor in the department of Political Science at the University of Oslo, is the latest academic to devise a statistical model capable of reaching into the future and telling us what is likely to happen next. His study, in collaboration with the Peace Research Institute Oslo, claims that in five years’ time India, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Uganda and Burma will be at the greatest risk of conflict, while in 40 years, it will be China, Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania.

For the purpose of the model, war is defined as being between governments and political organisations that use violence and in which at least 25 people die.

“The number of conflicts is falling,” the professor observes. “We expect this fall to continue. We predict a steady fall in the number of conflicts in the next 40 years. Conflicts that involve a high degree of violence, such as Syria, are becoming increasingly rare.”

In other words, the number of wars will halve. In 2009, some 15 per cent of the world’s countries were suffering from armed conflicts. That proportion will fall to 7 per cent midway through this century, according to the Norwegian researchers’ predictions. At its core, the study has taken a history of global conflicts over the last 40 years and added United Nations predictions for key indicators such as infant mortality rates and population structures up to 2050 to data on probable education rates.

His conflict model shows the combination of higher education, lower infant mortality, smaller youth cohorts, and lower population growth are a few of the reasons why the world can expect a more peaceful future. The population is expected to grow, but at a slower pace than today, and the proportion of young people will decrease in most countries, with the exception of African ones.

Unfortunately, the model has already had to be tweaked to take account of the Arab Spring and renewed Israeli-Palestinian tensions. The authors admitted that since the first findings of the model were published in 2009, conflicts in the Middle East had weakened the clear correlation between socio-economic development and the absence of civil war, while the fighting in Syria and Libya had shown that “we also have to include democratisation processes in the model”.

via The future of war is looking bleak – World Politics – World – The Independent.

Wrong

2050 projections based on blinkered studies. Factually wrong.

Africa’s population after the end of WWII, in 1950 was estimated at 22 crores (220 million) – and is now at about 110 crores (1100 million). Can it be 2.8 billion ?(280 cr.; 2800 million). Even by 2050? Unless external meddling is stopped?

For the 200 years of the British Raj in India, population in India grew at its slowest pace, as per historical estimates.

Africa suffered more.

On January 25, 1957, Kashmir was merged with India, ignoring a UN ruling. Harold Macmillan, Selwyn Lloyd, Richard Austen Butler hectoring Nehru on Kashmir. Dag is Dag Hammersjold, the UN Secretary General. | Cartoonist: Michael Cummings in Daily Express, 28 Jan 1957; source & courtesy – cartoons.ac.uk

Wronger

Population decline of Africa was a direct result of slavery and colonialism.

Colonialism in Africa was dismantled over thirty years (1947-1977) after India – a process in which India’s foreign policy played no small role. Seeing colonialism anywhere as a threat to India, India’s foreign policy in the first 25 years concentrated more on global issues than on India’s own interests. Without economic or military might, India spoke on world stages – and colonial powers listened.

With great resentment.

Under Nehru’s Foreign Policy, India’s voice was heard by super-powers, on the global stage. Even though India was militarily and economically weak. This cartoon from a British magazine shows Nehru’s position on Suez rankled in Britain. Kashmir was a part of India – and Suez was NOT a part of Britain, but a part of Egypt. (Nehru – on Kashmir – On Suez; artist: Ronald Searle. Published in Punch Magazine 23 January 1957. Cartoon source and courtesy – punchcartoons.com).

Wrongest

War is probably decreasing because war mongers in the West no longer have the capacity, due ageing population and economic decline at home.

No less significant is the fact that resistant societies have found new ways to wage war. Libya is the most recent example.

In Africa.

The extract above interestingly does not mention colonialism, missionary objectives or Pax Americana as a cause but blames people for being born – through concepts like population control.

Dubious studies by people with doubtful intentions.

Related Articles

• The future of war is looking bleak (independent.co.uk)
• The world will be a more peaceful place in 2050 (wired.co.uk)
• Peace in our time? Scientist makes bold prediction that war is on the wane and will halve over next 40 years (dailymail.co.uk)
• Africa’s bright future (bbc.co.uk)

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