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How the coming elections can change Pakistan. Or will it change anything?

June 25, 2012 6 comments

Elections in Yumm-Rika and Pakistan are holding up some vital decisions across the world.
This head-butting may continue till elections in US and Pakistan are over - and the new dispensations are in place to make the necessary decisions | Cartoonist Sabir Nazar in November 2011; source & courtesy - sabirnazar.blogspot.com | Click for larger image.

This head-butting may continue till elections in US and Pakistan are over – and the new dispensations are in place to make the necessary decisions | Cartoonist Sabir Nazar in November 2011; source & courtesy – sabirnazar.blogspot.com | Click for larger image.

Hard & Soft

Mostly due to Obama’s election compulsions, the US is playing hard-to-get for Pakistan. In an election year, Yumm-Rika cannot be soft on Pakistan, an Islāmic country.

Pakistan too is using this opportunity to score brownie points at home.Pakistani leaders are putting up a show of getting close to India, renewing all-weather pledges with China – trying to convince the financiers and the electorate.

Pakistani politicians are not missing any trick in the book.

Come to Daddy

Come a new President in US, all bets are off. Pakistan will be back to its usual self – as will the US.

Proposing some bold scenarios, this post below, published in Pakistan and in Russia also, tells us that

The situation Karachi - and by extension in Pakistan also | Cartoonist Sabir Nazar in August 2011; source & courtesy - pakistantoday.com.pk | Click for larger image.

The situation Karachi – and by extension in Pakistan also | Cartoonist Sabir Nazar in August 2011; source & courtesy – pakistantoday.com.pk | Click for larger image.

Pakistan is looking to the East for help. We (Pakistan) are pinning our hopes on regional cooperation through blocs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This bloc boasts support from two major regional powers – Russia and China.We have numerous reasons to support this alliance. For instance, despite all cooperation and the consequent suffering, Pakistan continues to face immense pressure from America.

Russia and the Central Asian countries have supported Pakistan’s desire to become a full member of the organisation, while China has refrained from doing so. Sergei Lavrov, the acting Russian Foreign Minister, in a recent SCO meeting pushed for India and Pakistan’s membership in the SCO, coupled with more involvement in the Afghan security situation in a post Nato withdrawal scenario.

Pakistan must convince Beijing that Islamabad’s full participation in the organisation will be useful in addressing major regional issues. Pakistan must seize the moment, and exploit regional energy resources by partnering with Russia, China and India for energy and commercial trade.

Let’s free ourselves (Pakistan) from the hold of the West by embracing our friends in the East. (via China and Russia can free Pakistan of the US – English pravda.ru).

Pakistan is trying out all diplomatic moves while the US is in election mode | Cartoonist Sabir Nazar; March 2, 2012; source & courtesy - sabirnazar.blogspot.com | Click for larger image.

Pakistan is trying out all diplomatic moves while the US is in election mode | Cartoonist Sabir Nazar; March 2, 2012; source & courtesy – sabirnazar.blogspot.com | Click for larger image.

Two thoughts

One – China, Pakistan’s all-weather friend is also playing hard to get. While Russia is supporting Pakistan’s membership in SCO, it is China which is delaying Pakistan’s entry.

Two – As soon as the new US President, which may turn out to be Obama himself, is sworn in, Pakistan and US may rush into each others arms. US and Pakistan suits each others goals so well, that it may be difficult for both to find a replacement for either.

But Russia and China are a different kettle of fish. They are unlikely to wink at Pakistan’s terror factories. Nor do China and Russia have any use of Pakistan as a hired gun – in Imran Khan’s memorable words.

This leaves Pakistan with little wiggle room. Will a mercenary Pakistani leadership accept this situation?

Yes.

If the Pakistani leader is Imran Khan.

And that is why China may be delaying SCO membership, till Pakistani elections are over.

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Russia in WTO

June 15, 2012 1 comment

Russia in WTO. Will it be good for WTO? How will it benefit Russia itself?
Russian bear with the WTO girl on the Titanic | Drawing from the Russian cartoon film Titanic | Click for image.

Russian bear with the WTO girl on the Titanic | Drawing from the Russian cartoon film Titanic | Click for image.

The Way of the Bear
The Russian parliament has till June 15 by when it will have to approve the deal on Russia WTO membership.

Russia is the largest economy in the world that has yet to join the WTO. Doing so after 18 years of negotiations will require Moscow to further open its market, safeguard intellectual property and investments, and strengthen the rule of law.

While Russian authorities anticipate accession, local businesses weigh in the probable losses and benefits they’ll see on getting membership. Adding to worries is the time of the entry, as Europe and the US may be close to another recession amid their debt problems.

Analysts generally estimate joining the WTO as positive. “Competition is expected to grow, though prices will go down, but customers shouldn’t expect quick changes in prices. The transitional period in the WTO will last until 2020,” says Ivan Nikolayev from Aton investment group. (via ‘Russia’s been 10 years late to WTO’ — RT).

As can be expected, there is an anti-WTO lobby, which wants to safeguard Russia high-technology industry from predatory Western commercial practices.

Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov has sent an official letter to the Russian government demanding to prevent the country from joining the WTO.

­“WTO accession will create a real threat to national sovereignty and state security,” Zyuganov wrote.

In financial terms, it would also mean that the 2013 Russian budget will be short of 310 billion roubles (around $9.5 billion), he added, quoting estimates by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. Thus, the WTO would cost Russia its three-year budget in losses, Zyuganov stressed.

In his view, the country is joining the WTO on “absolutely disadvantageous conditions”. Its main industries are unable to compete with Western partners, the Communist leader notes. Aircraft construction, small and average businesses will find themselves in the most vulnerable situation, he says.

“The government is giving up support of Russian producers just at the moment when the battle for markets, financial flows and access to natural resources is intensifying,” he went on to say.

Apart from purely economic disadvantages, Zyuganov says, joining the WTO would turn Russia into a “territory ruled from the outside”, as the organization is a “tool for the destruction of the state” and “assertion of world corporate power,” he insists. (via ‘WTO a threat to Russian state’ – Communist leader — RT).

The Russian Communists have changed.

The Indian Left are still a lumbering, cold-blooded sauropod – waiting for the sun to come up. Their bodies, blood and brains will wake up after someone shines sunlight on them.

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Superpower China: Emerging From 60 years Of American Shadow?

June 6, 2012 6 comments

The last 150 years has seen the rise of four world powers. Interestingly, in the same period four world powers were also eclipsed.
With the collapse of Soviet Union, the US became the single global power. With that position came adulation from client states. | A 1992 cartoon By David Horsey | Published December 27, 2011 | Click for image.

With the collapse of Soviet Union, the US became the single global power. With that position came adulation from client states. | A 1992 cartoon By David Horsey | Published December 27, 2011 | Click for image.

Rise and Fall

In the last 150 years, we have the rise of four powers – Germany, Russia, Japan and USA. In the same period we have seen the eclipse of four powers. The Ottoman Empire, China, Spain – and India.

Some may want to include the Austro-Hungarian Empire – but it was an empire in eclipse by 1850 itself – plus its demise has had little effect.

Remarkably, Germany, Russia and Japan have been through many wars, defeats – and are nowhere near eclipse as yet. Though they have not achieved the ’eminence’ of the USA, their seat at the global power league is still not taken by any other power.

In a cloud of hubris

USA may congratulate itself in the demise of the USSR, but Russia has seen abolition of monarchy, a painful process in Russia also like in most countries. A 10-year civil war followed the abolition – with Kerensky leading the White Faction supported by the West, against the Communist Red Faction, under Lenin. Communism survived in Russia, from 1930-1990, surviving the German invasion during WWII.

After the break-up of USSR in 1990s, the last 10 years has seen Russian ship regain some sense of direction.

The best thing for Russia

In hindsight, the loss of the Russian Empire in Central Asia, Eastern Europe may have been exactly what Russia needed. Russia’s Empire in Central Asia and Eastern Europe was a huge drain on Russia. When commodity prices collapsed in the 1980-1990 decade, Russian earnings based on raw-material exports also collapsed. The cost of the Russian Empire brought down the USSR.

Without the burden of an empire, the world may see a more powerful Russia. It may even outlast the American Empire.

In the meantime, overcome with hubris, Americans have been thumping their own backs and chests in self-congratulation.

we have forgotten how countries behave as their power increases. We have been living so long in a world where one power has been so much more powerful than all the others. The existence of the American hegemon has forced all other powers to exercise unusual restraint, curb normal ambitions, and avoid actions that might lead to the formation of a U.S.-led coalition of the kind that defeated Germany twice, Japan once, and the Soviet Union, more peacefully, in the Cold War.

The Chinese, as good historians, are acutely aware of the fate that befell these others and have worked hard to avoid a similar fate, following as best they can Deng Xiaoping’s advice to “keep a low profile and never take the lead.” As relative power shifts, however, that advice becomes harder and harder to follow. We saw some early signs of what the future might hold in China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea. The response of the United States, which swung in behind the nervous powers in the region, has possibly convinced the Chinese that their moves were premature.

They may have themselves bought in too much to the widespread talk of America in decline. Were that decline to become real in the coming years, however, it is a certainty that Chinese pressures and probes will return. Greater relative power on China’s part might also lead Beijing to become less patient with Taiwan’s lack of movement toward acquiescing to the mainland’s sovereignty.

A situation in which U.S. power were declining, China’s power were rising, and the Taiwan issue became fractious is practically a textbook instance of how wars start — even if neither side wants war. That is why some have referred to Taiwan as East Asia’s Sarajevo. (via The Rise or Fall of the American Empire – By Robert Kagan, Gideon Rachman, and Daniel W. Drezner | Foreign Policy).

Is this what the Chinese think?

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Russia’s Population Problem – Indian men the answer?

January 29, 2012 14 comments

Across Russia and Central Asia, women seem to perceive Indian men through the prism of values that they have seen in Bollywood movies.

Four young Ukrainian women went topless on the balcony of the Indian envoy’s residence in Kiev with placards pronouncing “Ukraine is not a bordello” and “We are not prostitutes”. The Femen quartet are 'famous' for topless protests against topics ranging from sex tourism to Silvio Berlusconi’s peccadilloes. This time they were protesting the alleged tightening of visa rules by the Indian mission in Kiev for Ukrainian women in the 15-40 age group. | Image source & courtesy - femen.info

Four young Ukrainian women went topless on the balcony of the Indian envoy’s residence in Kiev with placards pronouncing “Ukraine is not a bordello” and “We are not prostitutes”. The Femen quartet are ‘famous’ for topless protests against topics ranging from sex tourism to Silvio Berlusconi’s peccadilloes. This time they were protesting the alleged tightening of visa rules by the Indian mission in Kiev for Ukrainian women in the 15-40 age group. | Image source & courtesy – femen.info

One label for One Nation

A few weeks ago, some women from Ukraine protested when the Indian External Affairs Ministry (MEA) decided that it will restrict visas to Ukrainian women.

The  ministry expected (as per news reports) that some of these women were being purportedly recruited on a short-term basis by political parties to ‘motivate’ party cadre in election bound states of UP and Punjab.

So, the Indian Government decided to scrutinize visa applications from Ukrainian women in 15-40 years age group as ‘probable’ prostitute-candidates.

The Indian embassy in Kiev denied this report.

STOP Press!

Saturday, 18 February 2012 17:57 | PTI | Moscow
The Ukrainian government has decided to press charges against the Femen group for their protest in the Indian embassy.  The Charges – hooliganism and desecration of state symbols.

Active since 2008, Femen Group members have never faced imprisonment – worst being fines or brief arrests.

Wah! Taj

Around the same time, a court in Siberia was hearing arguments on why the Bhagwad Gita was a threat to Christianity in Russia – and must be banned.

Russia has less than 100,000 ‘Hindus’ who spontaneously converted from Christianity to Hinduism under the aegis of the American guru’s Krishna Consciousness Foundation – popularly known as Hare Krishna devotees.

The Tomsk court finally decided that the ban was not justified.

To complete the chain

And then the older story (from 2007) which amused a lot of Indians – and promptly forgotten.

Desperate to reverse a steep decline in their numbers, Russians are coming up with some bold ideas on how to overcome Russia’s demographic crisis.

A Russian feminist has proposed a radical solution to the falling birth rate — importing Indian bridegrooms for Russian girls. Maria Arbatova, writer and TV moderator, who married an Indian businessman a few years ago “after 25 years of keeping marrying Russians”, thinks Indian men make ideal husbands.

“They are crazy about their family and children,” she said presenting her new book, ‘Tasting India’, here. “What is more, Indians, like Russians, are Indo-Europeans, and many Sanskrit and Russian words have the same roots.”

Indian bridegrooms can help ward off a Chinese demographic invasion in Russia, says the feminist: “If we do not balance off the Chinese with Indians, Africans or aliens, by 2050 China will annex Russia’s Siberia up to the Ural Mountains.”

Russia has a population of 142 million spread across a territory five times the size of India. Its population is shrinking at one-third of a million a year. Under a federal programme launched this year, women who give birth to a second or subsequent child are given certificates worth $10,000, which can be used for education, mortgage or pensions. (via The Hindu : Front Page : “Import Indian bridegrooms for Russian brides”).

Joining the dots

Are

  1. Ukrainian women coming to India
  2. To find ‘good’ Indian husbands
  3. Based on an image built by Bollywood movies, very popular in USSR region

Far fetched! See this video.

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West – Developed & Deep in Debt

January 26, 2012 3 comments

The entire Developed world is deeply in debt. Will this debt ever get paid?

Britain - A World Leader In Indebtedness! (Source McKinsey Reports). Alt image URL - http://goo.gl/k6soE

Britain - A World Leader In Indebtedness! (Source McKinsey Reports). Alt image URL - http://goo.gl/k6soE

debt problems of the western world go much beyond the current crisis. For one thing, as the authors point out, public debt levels are likely to rise as populations age and governments try to deliver on the promises (pensions, health care and so on).

As public debt levels rise beyond the “danger threshold”, they will tend to pull growth down. This, in turn, could make household and corporate debt servicing far more difficult and countries that are already saddled with dangerously high levels could find themselves in the middle of a crisis. Thus, even if there is a solution to the current crisis in Europe, the “debt” problems of the western world are far from over.

Tailpiece

What worries us about the spirit of good cheer that has suddenly returned to the markets is that it might lead to temporary appreciation in the euro. This, alas, could bring back the spectre of a crisis in the region and revive fears of a break-up in the currency union. One of the pre-conditions for the survival of the union is an orderly deprecation of the currency towards some sort of “fair value” that we think could lie anywhere between 1.15 and 1.20. This would make the beleaguered countries of the periphery more competitive and reduce their incentives to exit from the union. If the currency starts to appreciate again, things go back to square one and the sustainability of the union is back under a cloud of uncertainty. Financial markets tend to be prescient about these things and it is possible that while other currencies and assets rally against the dollar, the euro could at least stay put. (via Abheek Barua & Shivom Chakravarti: Deconstructing debt).

DEBT THREATS (Debt levels as a % of GDP)
Debt Household Non-financial Government Total
US 95 76 97 268
Japan 82 161 213 456
UK 106 126 89 321
Italy 53 128 129 310
Denmark 152 119 65 336
Netherlands 130 121 76 327
Greece 65 65 143 273
Portugal 106 153 107 366
Source: Bank for International settlements & Eurostat  Table source & courtesy – business-standard.com

Clear message

Estimates vary. Assumptions change.

Regardless, of difference in estimates, or the variation in assumptions, debt levels of the developed world are awesome.

The table on top is based on McKinsey Consulting’s estimates released in 2009.

Some figures were revised after McKinsey estimates were made. Like from Ireland. Or after the QE and QEII, US govt debt has ballooned from roughly US$9 trillion to 15 trillion.

The deficit has ballooned to nearly $48,000 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. This year alone, the U.S. will spend $1.3 trillion more than it takes in.

The debt has expanded at an alarming pace, from $7.5 trillion in 2004 and $5.6 trillion in 2000. At the current rate, Debtclock.org reckons that the debt will top $23 trillion in 2015, though the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office puts the estimate at $17.6 trillion. (via U.S. Debt Tops $15 Trillion Mark Today – ABC News).

Looking at these two sets figures, two questions come to my mind.

One: How does the West+Developed world plan to repay these debts?

Only two things can happen from here. Either governments are going to default outright. Or they are going inflate away their debts, using compliant central banks to keep interest rates significantly below rising prices for many years. Either way, everyone is going to lose a lot of money. Whether it is through a default or inflation doesn’t make much difference in the medium term. (via France and the death of the sovereign debt market – Matthew Lynn’s London Eye – MarketWatch).

Two: If the whole of the Developed world is so deep in debt, it is obvious that someone else has lent them this money?

Obviously, the Developed World is a net borrower – and someone has lent that money to the Developed world – or underwriting this Debt, based on which this debt is being issued.

Since all the major economies of the world (except Russia and China) are deeply in debt, who is doing the lending? Russia and China are in a position to be creditors, only to a limited extent. But cannot account for major part.

This leaves us with the poor countries of the world.

Are the rich of this world, bleeding the poor?

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Russian warships in Syrian waters

November 23, 2011 3 comments

India’s The Hindu reports of Russian warships moving into a Russian naval base in Syria. Are we seeing a return of Russia on the world stage?

Pyotr Veliky – flagship of Russia's Northern Fleet | Image source and courtesy - en.rian.ru; © RIA Novosti. Sergey Eshenko

Pyotr Veliky – flagship of Russia's Northern Fleet | Image source and courtesy - en.rian.ru; © RIA Novosti. Sergey Eshenko

Is this true

This is intriguing news.

No other major newspaper or news agency in English has reported this. Even the website of the RIA-Novosti makes no mention of this. While The Hindu and its editorial line and business policies has many detractors, at least its credibility is rarely questioned. It’s path breaking work on the Bofors scandal stood intense scrutiny for factual integrity.

This post written by Vladimir Radyuhin, in The Hindu is at least, not without credibility. Vladimir Radyuhin is himself an old hand on the Indo-Russia news circuit.

The Hindu reports

The rift between Russia and the West over Syria and Iran has widened on Tuesday as Moscow sent warships to Syrian shores in a show of support for the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and slammed new United States sanctions against Iran as “unacceptable”.

Three Russian warships have entered Syrian territorial waters, Russian wire services reported on Tuesday citing Syrian sources. The news came a day after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West and Arab monarchies of engaging in “political provocation” in Syria by rejecting dialogue between the opposition and authorities and welcoming armed attacks on government offices.

The Russian warships were reported to be heading towards the Syrian port of Tartus, where Russia has a naval base. A source close to the Syrian President said the Russian ships would patrol Syrian waters “to prevent any military interference”. Media reports said the ships may try to intercept small vessels that are smuggling weapons for Syrian opposition from the Lebanon and Turkey. (via The Hindu : News / International : Russian warships in Syrian waters. Subsequently, other reports,  started showing up in search results. Linked above.).

Five days after this post, rt.com, a prominent Russian news site, also confirmed.

The Russian battle group will consist of three vessels led by the heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser, Admiral Kuznetsov.

News of Russia’s naval deployment in Tartus came shortly after the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush anchored off Syria, along with additional naval vessels. The US battle group is to remain in the Mediterranean, allegedly to conduct maritime security operations and support missions as part of Operations Enduring Freedom and New Dawn. The US 6th Fleet is also patrolling the area, Interfax reports.

Nevertheless, he added that the presence of a military force other than NATO’s is very useful for this region, because “it will prevent the outbreak of an armed conflict,” Izvestia quoted Kravchenko as saying.

“Of course, the Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean will be incommensurate with those of the US 6th Fleet, which includes one or two aircraft carriers and several escort ships,” Admiral Kravchenko explained. “But today, no one talks about possible military clashes, since an attack on any Russian ship would be regarded as a declaration of war with all the consequences.”

Russian military officials insist that the move has no connection with the ongoing crisis in the region and was planned a year ago, the Izvestia newspaper reports. Apart from Syria, the aircraft carrier and its escort ships are set to visit the Lebanese capital, Beirut, Genoa in Italy and Cyprus, says the former Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Viktor Kravchenko.

The mission is set to start in early December, when the Admiral Kuznetsov begins its journey in the Barents Sea, accompanied by another vessel of Russia’s Northern Fleet, the heavy ASW ship Admiral Chabanenko. The group will then skirt the European continent from the west and enter the Mediterranean through the Strait of Gibraltar. (via Sea alert: Russian warships head for Syria — RT).

New actions on old agreements

Russia has an old agreement with Syria – and under this agreement, Russian ships have been regular visitors and users of this naval base. An old report from UPI states

TARTUS, Syria, Sept. 19 (UPI) — Ten Russian warships are docked in the Syrian port city of Tartus to the apparent surprise of the Israeli military, military sources say.

The unidentified sources said Israeli military leaders were unaware that Russian had already moved so many vessels into Syrian territory following a Sept. 12 agreement between the two countries, DEBKAfile, a Israeli news Web site, reported Friday.

The military intelligence Web site said the agreement reached between Russian navy commander Adm. Vladimir Wysotsky and Syrian naval commander Gen. Taleb al-Barri allows Russia to use Syrian ports as long-term naval bases. (via Sources: Russian warships in Syrian port – UPI.com).

Iran into the game

Interestingly, a few months ago, Iranian warships, a frigate and a supply vessel crossed the Suez and docked into Syria. RIA-Novosti reports,

Senior Iranian military figures are in the Syrian capital Damascus for a ceremony to greet the arrival of two Iranian warships later on Thursday.

The two vessels involved, the British-built frigate the Alvand and supply vessel the Kharg, docked at the Port of Latakia on Wednesday. Israel last week described the planned move as a “provocation.”

It is the first time since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution that Iranian warships passed through the Suez Canal.

Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sattari is leading the delegation of military officials in Syria.

The ceremony at Lattakia later today will feature officials from both countries, a senior Iranian official told the IRNA news agency.

In his comments on Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country “takes a grave view” of the Iranian step. (via Iranian military to ‘greet’ warships in Syria amid Israeli concern | World | RIA Novosti).

Yakhont missiles | Image source and courtesy - © RIA Novosti. Vladimir Fedorenko

Yakhont missiles | Image source and courtesy - © RIA Novosti. Vladimir Fedorenko

Yakhont deployment

Last year RIA-Novosti reported the deployment of a new missile system in Syria – by Russia.

Russian-made mobile anti-ship missile systems sold to Syria could be used to protect a Russian naval supply and maintenance site near Syria’s Mediterranean port of Tartus, a Russian arms trade expert said on Monday.

Russia earlier announced it would honor a 2007 contract on the delivery of several Bastion anti-ship missile systems armed with SS-N-26 Yakhont supersonic cruise missiles to Syria, despite U.S. and Israel security concerns.

Syria needs to shield a 600-km stretch of its coastline from potential amphibious assaults.

“One of the purposes of the deployment of Bastion missile systems in Syria is to ensure the protection of the Russian naval site in Tartus,” said Igor Korotchenko, head of a Moscow-based think tank on the international arms trade. (via Yakhont missiles could protect Russian naval base in Syria – analyst | Defense | RIA Novosti).

Part II (Updated – 28-11-2011)

An analysis, dated September 2011, from the Egyptian Weekly, Al Ahram started showing up on search engines. This post by Al Ahram nuances the Soviet position. It says

“Should Russia should accede to Western plans for the Middle East?” To “learn from its mistake” in Libya and dump Al-Assad immediately, whatever the internal dynamics of Syria may be?

The two camps represent the two poles in post-Soviet Russian thinking: the Eurasianists vs the Atlantists. The former trying to put Russia at the centre of an independent anti-Western coalition. The latter are happy to throw in the towel, to accede to the Western hegemony which characterises the postmodern imperial order unfolding since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

There are powerful forces in Russia behind both views. Atlantist enthusiast Russian President Dmitri Medvedev was responsible for the success of UN Resolution 1973 allowing the NATO bombing of Libya. In March, he overrode broad Russian opposition including by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who denounced the Western invasion as a new Crusade. Medvedev had to fire Russian ambassador to Libya Vladimir Chamov when the latter sided with Putin. Medvedev now warns Al-Assad of a “dire fate” if he continues his campaign against the opposition.

Those who want to accede to the Western agenda complain that in Libya Tatneft and Gazprom Neft will have to abandon their projects. “We won’t have anything; Libya’s oil market will shift in favor of Italian ENI. After them, the American and European companies,” whines Uralsib Capital analyst Alexei Kokin. The Russian Railways contract to build a 550km high-speed rail line from Sirte to Benghazi also appears to be under review by the new government in Tripoli.

Libya is far away, and was never much of a Soviet-Russian ally. In Syria, Russian economic and security stakes are much higher. Not only is Syria one of Russia’s largest arms export customers, with current and pending deals valued at $10 billion, but Al-Assad’s regime is also a significant Russian security partner in the Middle East. The Russian navy is dependent on Syrian ports to sustain its operations in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf.

Russia’s NATO Ambassador Dmitri Rogozin scoffed at the idea that the West had any altruistic motives in invading Libya. He told the EUobserver on 2 September that the Libya experience shows NATO will now “expand towards its southern borders”, and though he was happy NATO had stopped expanding eastward, “we cannot trust [that] NATO will not exceed the mandate and NATO bombs will not be dropped on Damascus.”

Concerning the proposed UN resolution against Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “This is a call for a repeat of the Libyan scenario. The BRICS nations will not allow this to happen.” Russia is unwilling to contemplate another Western-incited civil war and invasion leading to regime change. For the moment, the Eurasianists have the upper hand.

Underlying the Atlantist-Eurasianist debate is the fate of the entire Western project to transform the Middle East, which has been in the works since the 1980s with the rise of the neocons. This plan was to bring about a controlled chaos in the region, creating a series of weak statelets that would benefit a strong Israel.

After much delay, Reuters, a leading Western news agencies confirmed,

Russia is sending a flotilla of warships to its naval base in Syria in a show of force which suggests Moscow is willing to defend its interests in the strife-torn country as international pressure mounts on President Bashar al-Assad’s government.

Russia, which has a naval maintenance base in Syria and whose weapons trade with Damascus is worth millions of dollars annually, joined China last month to veto a Western-backed U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Assad’s government.

Izvestia newspaper reported on Monday, citing retired Russian Admiral Viktor Kravchenko, that Russia plans to send its flagship aircraft carrier the “Admiral Kuznetsov” along with a patrol ship, an anti-submarine craft and other vessels.

“Having any military force apart from NATO is very beneficial for the region as it prevents the outbreak of armed conflict,” Kravchenko, who was navy chief of staff from 1998-2005, was quoted as saying by Izvestia.

Russia, a veto-wielding permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, abstained from voting on a resolution that paved the way for Western military intervention in Libya but later criticised the mission saying NATO overstapped its mandate and interfered in a civil war.

Russia said it lost of tens of billions of dollars in potential arms deals with Muammar Gaddafi’s fall and is loathe to lose another customer in the region. Syria accounted for 7 percent of Russia’s total of $10 billion in arms deliveries abroad in 2010, according to CAST. (via Russia sending warships to its base in Syria | News by Country | Reuters).

Another leading news agency, Bloomberg, echoed similarly,

Russia will send three warships to its naval base in Syria next month, including the country’s only aircraft carrier, Izvestia reported, citing navy officials.

The vessels including the Admiral Kuznetsov, which will have eight Su-33 fighter aircraft, several new MiG-29K fighter jets and two Ka-27 naval helicopters on board, will arrive at the Mediterranean port of Tartous in the spring, the Moscow- based daily said.

Russia maintains a servicing point for naval vessels in Tartous, its only military facility outside the former Soviet republics. About 600 Russian Defense Ministry staff work at the base, Izvestia said.

The naval mission to Syria, which has been an ally since the Soviet era, will prevent NATO military involvement in the Middle Eastern country, the newspaper cited former Russian naval chief Victor Kravchenko as saying. (via Russia Sends Warships, Aircraft Carrier to Syria, Izvestia Says – Bloomberg).

Yet another leading Western agency, UPI confirmed

Russia plans to send a fleet of warships, including its only aircraft carrier, to the Syrian port of Tartus in early spring next year, a senior officer said.

“The call of the Russian ships in Tartus should not be seen as a gesture towards what is going on in Syria … . This was planned already in 2010 when there were no such events there,” the officer was quoted as saying.

Adm. Viktor Kravchenko, former navy chief of staff, said the presence of the warships at the Syrian port “will prevent the outbreak of armed conflict.” (via Russia to send ships to Syria next year – UPI.com).

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The Arctic’s strategic value for Russia

November 3, 2010 2 comments
In this Aug. 24, 2009 picture provided by the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy breaks ice ahead of the Canadian Coast Guard Ship Louis S. St-Laurent in the Arctic Ocean. The two ships are taking part in a multi-year, multi-agency Arctic survey that will help define the Arctic continental shelf. Photo: AP; Courtesy-thehindu.com.

In this Aug. 24, 2009 picture provided by the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy breaks ice ahead of the Canadian Coast Guard Ship Louis S. St-Laurent in the Arctic Ocean. The two ships are taking part in a multi-year, multi-agency Arctic survey that will help define the Arctic continental shelf. Photo: AP; Courtesy-thehindu.com.

NATO, for the first time, officially claimed a role in the Arctic, when Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told member-states to sort out their differences within the alliance so that it could move on to set up “military activity in the region.”

“Clearly, the High North is a region that is of strategic interest to the Alliance,” he said at a NATO seminar in Reykjavik, Iceland, in January 2009.

Can the West see beyond oil in the next 50 years. Not unless, they are led by their nose. (Cartoonist-Matt Wuerker; Date-25-6-2008; Courtesy-cartonistgroup.com; Copyright-Matt Wuerker).

Can the West see beyond oil in the next 50 years. Not unless, they are led by their nose. (Cartoonist-Matt Wuerker; Date-25-6-2008; Courtesy-cartonistgroup.com; Copyright-Matt Wuerker). Click for larger image.

Since then, NATO has held several major war games focussing on the Arctic region. In March this year, 14,000 NATO troops took part in the “Cold Response 2010” military exercise held in Norway under a patently provocative legend: the alliance came to the defence of a fictitious small democratic state, Midland, whose oilfield is claimed by a big undemocratic state, Nordland. In August, Canada hosted its largest yet drill in the Arctic, Operation Nanook 2010, in which the U.S. and Denmark took part for the first time.

Russia registered its firm opposition to the NATO foray, with President Dmitry Medvedev saying the region would be best without NATO. “Russia is keeping a close eye on this activity,” he said in September. “The Arctic can manage fine without NATO.” The western media portrayed the NATO build-up in the region as a reaction to Russia’s “aggressive” assertiveness, citing the resumption of Arctic Ocean patrols by Russian warships and long-range bombers and the planting of a Russian flag in the North Pole seabed three years ago.

It is conveniently forgotten that the U.S. Navy and Air Force have not stopped Arctic patrolling for a single day since the end of the Cold War. Russia, on the other hand, drastically scaled back its presence in the region after the break-up of the Soviet Union. It cut most of its Northern Fleet warships, dismantled air defences along its Arctic coast and saw its other military infrastructure in the region fall into decay.

(Cartoonist-Chip Bok; Date-23-6-2008; Courtesy-cartonistgroup.com; Image subject to copyright). Click for larger image.

(Cartoonist-Chip Bok; Date-23-6-2008; Courtesy-cartonistgroup.com; Image subject to copyright). Click for larger image.

The Arctic has enormous strategic value for Russia. Its nuclear submarine fleet is based in the Kola Peninsula. Russia’s land territory beyond the Arctic Circle is almost the size of India — 3.1 million sq km. It accounts for 80 per cent of the country’s natural gas production, 60 per cent of oil, and the bulk of rare and precious metals. By 2030, Russia’s Arctic shelf, which measures 4 million sq km, is expected to yield 30 million tonnes of oil and 130 billion cubic metres of gas. If Russia’s claim for a 350-mile EEZ is granted, it will add another 1.2 million sq km to its possessions.

A strategy paper Mr. Medvedev signed in 2008 said the polar region would become Russia’s “main strategic resource base” by 2020. Russia has devised a multivector strategy to achieve this goal. First, it works to restore its military capability in the region to ward off potential threats. Russia is building a new class of nuclear submarines, Borei (Northern Wind) that will be armed with a new long-range missile, Bulava. Navy Chief Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky said recently he had also drawn up a plan to deploy warships in Russia’s Arctic ports to protect polar sea routes. (via The Arctic’s strategic value for Russia By Vladimir Radyuhin.)

Thin ice …

Some sixteen months ago, 2ndlook speculated that West’s redemption may come from oil – from the Arctic. With receding Arctic ice-caps, the West may find itself sitting on large oil reserves. Production from these discoveries may take 10-25 years – climate permitting.

West on the drip - needs Arctic oil. (Cartoon title- Arctic Oil; Cartoon By - Monte Wolverton, Copyright-Monte Wolverton; Date - 3/20/2005 12.00.00 AM). Click for larger image.

West on the drip - needs Arctic oil. (Cartoon title- Arctic Oil; Cartoon By - Monte Wolverton, Copyright-Monte Wolverton; Date - 3/20/2005 12.00.00 AM). Click for larger image.

A big if.

Climate change, I don’t believe in. How long will these weather patterns persist? The West is skating on thin ice – but then what can they do. Slavery is not an option – not for another 50-100 years at least. Dig mother earth, is the second and only option they have believed in.

For the last 3000 years at least.

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Indo-Russian Jigsaw

July 10, 2010 Leave a comment
Russia commemorates 65th anniversary of WWII victory.

Russia commemorates 65th anniversary of WWII victory.

Finally, a post scriptuum, directly related to Russian-Indian relations. The question is how to restore the trust in relations … which was characteristic during the Soviet period. No small part in restoring the “Soviet” spirit was played by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during his recent whirlwind visit to Delhi. This positive inertia could also be developed in Moscow, bearing in mind our particular sensitivity to the memory of the War and the Victory.

I might add that the format for receiving foreign leaders on the 65th anniversary — without an invitation, by desire — was in the best Byzantine traditions: whoever respects Russia comes. Our allies in the anti-Hitler coalition don’t count since their authorised representatives marched on May 9 across Red Square.

… German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese President Hu Jintao … contrived to turn their trip to Moscow into a variety of working visit. In the context of our “strategic partnership”, Hu Jintao conducted official talks in the Kremlin. Given this, the absence of Indian leaders was striking and not just to me. One has to admit: on May 9 Beijing outplayed Delhi. (via A time to gather stones – Russia & India Report).

Indo-Russian diplomacy

The Russia-India Report is an interesting opinion-making exercise. Indian opinion, which is dominated by Anglo-Saxon, Western ideas and language usually ignores other constructs – including Indian concepts.

This report describes a very non-Western manner in which Russia celebrated the 65th anniversary of WW2 victory. Very dissimilar to modern Western ideas on diplomacy. In a Byzantine manner.

The Byzantine traditions were of course heavily influenced by India. The name Byzantium itself was possibly derived from Vaijayanti – also the ancient capital of Satavahana Empire,  now in Goa.

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Indian dress in Moscow – German magazine, French agency, Russian locale

April 25, 2010 1 comment

The lady on the left (Two shoppers check out the display at the annual Millionaire Fair in Moscow. But economic troubles may lurk just under Russia's glossy surface. Courtesy - AFP photograpgh in Der Spiegel).

The lady on the left (Two shoppers check out the display at the annual Millionaire Fair in Moscow. But economic troubles may lurk just under Russia's glossy surface. Courtesy - AFP photograph in Der Spiegel).

A dress in Moscow

This photograph is intriguing to say the least.

The lady on the left is wearing a ‘modern’ Indian salwaar-kameez with a dupatta. The colours of the dress also gel into Indian ‘aesthetics’. Compared to the dark and ‘sober’ colours of the lady on the right, the extravagant colours with the embroidered pattern is a dead giveaway of Indian dress sensibilities.

Then look at the shoes worn by the lady on the right, with the slippers worn by the lady on the left. Then the flared sleeves of the salwaar-kameez are another design feature that Indian women love.

Russian in Indian clothes?

So, is this a Russian lady wearing an Indian dress in Moscow? If it is Russian wearing Indian dresses with Indian colours in Moscow, where is she getting the colours, tailoring, designs, etc.? Or has she picked it up on one of her trips to India? Or is it a case of a ready-made dress, which she has bought, off-the-shelf in Moscow? Are there dress-shops in Moscow dealing with Indian-style dresses?

An Indian in Russia?

Or an Indian lady in Moscow, in an Indian dress? Now that raises different questions. Why don’t we see Indian males in Indian dresses – especially when abroad. On the other hand, Indian women have the confidence to carry off their dresses. Why do Indian males lack that confidence? A usual answer is ‘acceptance’. Why would other cultures have a problem, if people dress differently. I know that in India ‘differences’ in clothing will arouse curiosity.

And little else.

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Rock-solid Russia Returns to Bond Markets for $5.5 Billion

April 24, 2010 4 comments

With Government debt level ranging between 2%-20%, Russia is in a league of its own. No other major government in the world has such low-levels of debt.
Dependance on raw materials can be the first step!

Dependance on raw materials can be the first step!

Russia is selling dollar bonds for the first time since the government defaulted on $40 billion of domestic debt in 1998. The five-year notes yield 125 basis points over similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries and the 10-year bonds have a 135 basis-point spread.

The sale is the second-biggest public dollar debt offering in emerging markets on record, after Qatar sold $7 billion of five-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds in November, Bloomberg data show.

The yield on Russia’s 11 percent dollar note due July 2018 has dropped 77 basis points to 4.489 percent this year, according to prices by Renaissance Capital. The nation’s debt is rated BBB by Standard & Poor’s, two levels above non-investment grade, and one step higher at Baa1 by Moody’s Investors Service. (via Russia, Egypt Return to Bond Markets for $7 Billion Update3 – BusinessWeek).

The Russian conundrum

After decades of boycott, machinations and confrontation, the Russian Government is in  a strong position of being low on debt. With the lowest levels of Government and private (household) debt, it is the Russian corporate sector that is the main debtor. With debt levels ranging between 2%-20%, Russia is in a league of its own.

At the start of the Great Recession, the Russian industrial and corporate systems were on the verge of bankruptcy. Russian industry with hugely in debts to Western banks, payable in the next 12 months, were in difficulties, refinancing these debts. Defending the Russian rouble, riding the treacherous waves of the The Great Recession, Russian foreign exchange reserves went down from nearly US$400 billion to US$275 billion.

Without depositors panicking about Russian banks.

Squeezing Russia

Russian crisis and default are ‘artificial’ and opportunistic creations of Western bankers, trying to squeeze a recalcitrant country. Russia managed the “budget deficit to hit 6.8% of GDP this year and wants to lower that to around 3% by 2012.” G7 and OECD countries have created a club for themselves, by giving each other unlimited line of credit – while the developing world gets credit based on fast-depreciating dollar/euro foreign exchange reserves.

Maybe this needs an inversion.

As demand and prices crashed ... so did Russian economy!

As demand and prices crashed … so did Russian economy!

Russia’s Achilles’ heel

Russia is too dependent on high raw material prices. High prices result from hot demand from the world economy. Russia feeds on high growth rates – but cannot be the reason for growth of the global economy.

What happens to Russia if a ‘new’ Caribbean Republic (Cuba, Haiti, West Indies, etc) were to start drilling for oil? In 5 years, the world would be awash with oil – and Russia’s mineral earnings could evaporate.

The Russian economy remains structurally weaker than widely perceived. High oil prices of the last 5 years built up foreign exchange reserves – as did inflows in the Russians stock market. Russian entrepreneurs remain an endangered species.

Large swathes of Russian enterprise have reverted back to the state – albeit in a corporate form, in the hands of oligarchs, a proxy for the State . The world has not yet forgotten the Russian debt default. Russia has come out from a default about a decade ago – with a nearly US$400 billion reserves – flexing its muscles in Georgia and dependent on a high oil prices.

Russia should get off its high military horse. Instead Putin-Medvedev should build alliances, sign agreements within the BRICS framework and rebuild the Russian system.

Heads you lose, tails I win

Russia's mineral resources map - (Courtesy - Der Spiegel)

Russia’s mineral resources map – (Courtesy – Der Spiegel)

Like Quicktake has pointed out in earlier posts, the US has alternated between an overvalued currency to gain ownership over large sections of world economy – and now with a devalued dollar, it seeks to gain an upper hand in merchandise exports. The three main points that one needs to understand are: –

One – It reduces the real value of US debt. The Chinese, the Rest of BRICS and the Others need to be paid a lot less in the future. (as pointed out earlier in various posts linked here.) Two – It makes US exports artificially competitive. (as pointed out earlier in linked posts). Three – US competitiveness will be anchored to assets purchased with over-valued dollars.

What the US is now proposing is that the Chinese Yuan must become ‘stronger’ – and the dollar must become weaker. This will mean a real reduction in US debt – and a subsidy for US exports. Of course, a devaluation has never helped any regime in the long run – but in the short run it reduces imports and increases exports. But is a ‘fix’ that the patient begins to become dependent on!

Is that the US is wanting to do to itself?

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