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Posts Tagged ‘Third Front’

Team Anna: Are they ready to campaign across 400 constituencies in 700 days

August 2, 2012 9 comments

Between a decrepit Congress and a paralysed BJP, we need an alternative. Anna can have my vote if he gives that choice.

Can Anna take on these entrenched forces? It has been done before.  |  Cartoon by Kureel on October 22, 2011; source & courtesy - iacpune.blogspot.in  |  Click for image.

Can Anna take on these entrenched forces? It has been done before. | Cartoon by Kureel on October 22, 2011; source & courtesy – iacpune.blogspot.in | Click for image.

Anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare has finally said that he is ready to give a political alternative to the country. Making the announcement at Jantar Mantar on Thursday, Anna has asked public for ideas on a political roadmap.

Making the announcement, Anna said, “Political alternative will be found, we will travel across the country for the next two years.”

Talking about the funds required for the purpose, Anna said that it was yet to be figured out.

He said, “We will have to see where the funds will come from in case we plan to give a political alternative.”

Anna, however, clarified that he was not willing to contest an election. He said, “I will not enter politics. Choosing the right candidate is important. Candidates will be scanned. Need to have the spirit of service, must be patriotic, and non corrupt.”

Following the announcement by the veteran social activist, Kejriwal addressed the gathering at Jantar Mantar saying the country needs people’s alternative to the government.

“Our movement is for the change of system and not change of government. Our movement is for decentralisation of power, power in the hands of the common man, power to people,” said Kejriwal.

Hitting out at the government for not accepting the demands of Team Anna, Kejriwal said the government was not willing to pass the Lokpal Bill.

He said, “This government is deaf and mute. They do not want to pass the Lokpal Bill. All parties are corrupt.”

However, Team Anna defended the decision with key member and Supreme Court lawyer Prashant Bhushan saying that the only option left with them is to bring revolution.

“When the government is showing arrogance of power, the only option left is to bring revolution,” he said.

Bhushan further said, “Existing political parties are corrupt beyond repair, so we need an alternative politics.”

The decision by Team Anna came after around 22 eminent citizens, including former army chief V K Singh, appealed them to end their fast.

via Team Anna ready for a political role, to end fast on Friday – Politics – Politics News – ibnlive.

Democracy is not like…

भारत-तंत्र Bharat-tantra – where kings ruling small kingdoms, without

  • A standing army
  • Many ministers
  • Large treasuries and bureaucracy
  • Prisons, courts and police
  • A Parliament

were able to create the most industrialized society for the last 2000 years – till we had the ‘glorious’ British Raj.

Promise and performance are two different things. To me winning a majority is performance. | TN Ninan cartoon on 20 Apr 2011 in Pune Mirror | Click for image.

Promise and performance are two different things. To me winning a majority is performance. | TN Ninan cartoon on 20 Apr 2011 in Pune Mirror | Click for image.

Cut out the glib talk

Democracy usually means:

1. Single Party democracies like China and Communist Russia – where lakhs of Party members choose leaders from among themselves.

2. Two-Party democracies like America, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany Japan, etc where leaders are chosen from thousands of leaders that belong to one of the two political parties. Using complex mechanisms, more than two parties are usually not allowed to survive or win elections in these two-party democracies.

3. Multi-party democracies – India is the closest that has come to this system. With Congress and BJP in shambles, we need a good Third alternative.

After Indira Gandhi in 1980, no one has gained an electoral majority in India for the last 30 years.

You can have my vote

If Anna can change that, he can have my vote.

Between a bad government by the Left in Bengal and a bad government by Mamata Banerjee, I will give Mamata Banerjee a chance.

How much harm can she do? Compared to the Left?

Similarly, compared to a bad governance by Mulayam Singh /Akhilesh Singh Yadav or Mayawati, I will choose Mayawati.

On the other hand, stellar performers like Nitesh Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu can get my vote anytime – based on a positive agenda.

Any day of the week.

Will Anna be able to change the rules of the game?  |  Cartoon by Manjul on July 31, 2011; source and courtesy - manjul.com  |  Click for image.

Will Anna be able to change the rules of the game? | Cartoon by Manjul on July 31, 2011; source and courtesy – manjul.com | Click for image.

700 days

Two years of hard work can win you an election.

NTR Rama Rao came from nowhere and trounced Indira Gandhi’s party twice – in Andhra Pradesh. YS Rajasekhara Reddy turned around the Congress in AP based on his two-year padayatra.

NTR’s Chaitanya-ratham morphed on the national scene as LK Advani’s rath-yatra. This rath-yatra re-floated the sunk-ship of BJP into an electoral victory – and a party of national standing.

So, Anna go for it

I know you have no agenda. I also know that you are very disparate lot – with Prashant Bhushan and Arvind Kejriwal pulling in 75 degrees of each other.

You have some 700 days to contact important 400 parliamentary constituencies. It is a lot of work. If you do 2 years of mass contact work…

But you can do it. Eat well. No more fasts. Sleep well.

And give us a parliamentary majority.

PS

psst … like Rahim said many centuries ago

बिगरी बात बने नहीं, लाख करो किन कोय।
रहिमन बिगरे दूध को, मथे न माखन होय॥6॥

अर्थ: जब बात बिगड़ जाती है तो किसी के लाख कोशिश करने पर भी बनती नहीं है। उसी तरह जैसे कि फटे हुए दूध को मथने से मक्खन नहीं निकलता।

This Lok Pal is a silly idea.

One more policeman will not change anything. This system is broken – and it can’t be fixed.

Go the भारत-तंत्र Bharat-tantra way.


 

Scenarios and Outcomes – Indian Elections 2009

May 14, 2009 5 comments
Only if it was that easy!

Only if it was that easy!

Opinion Polls and India

The 2004 elections in India was a watershed – for opinion poll industry. After 20 years of work, the opinion poll industry thought that they had the models, the tricks, questionnaires and had the Indian Voter all figured out. 2004 changed that.

What looked like a certain victory for the BJP, turned out to be victory for the ‘no hope’ Congress Party – a surprise front runner. It was not just one opinion poll – but nearly half a dozen opinion polls that got it wrong. No wonder, this time around they, the opinion pollsters, were subdued when the Election Commission decided to finally implement the ‘no-opinion-polls-during-elections’ diktat.

Congress has its troubles!

Congress has its troubles!

That said, a post in India’s Times of India writes about how the diplomatic “grapevine will tell you, the entire diplomatic corps in New Delhi called the 2004 election results wrong — except the Russians.” I would like to know what methodology the Russians knew – and the rest of the world does not know about. Or was it just a fluke?

Unlike most Westernized ‘readers’ and ‘experts’, 2ndlook believes that the Indian Voter has been a smart voter – who has taken risks with ‘unknown’ parties and given opportunities to ‘risky’ elements. This has ensured that the Indian Voter has a large electoral choice – compared to the typical two-horse towns that passes of as elections in other countries.

This elections seems to centre around four scenarios.

Scenario 1

Congress wins between 170-200 seats. Their allies win another 70-100 seats. At the higher end of the spectrum, the combine will easily form the Government. At the lower end, the UPA combine will fall short of about 30 seats. This may not pose a significant problem. This is of course subject to who the winners of the 70-100 seats in the Congress are. That  will be the crucial factor.

Cricket and politics - whatta mix!

Cricket and politics - whatta mix!

  1. If Mamta Banerjee wins 15-20 seats, getting additional 30 seats from the Left Parties will be difficult.
  2. That may leave the Congress to look at the ADMK – if the DMK does not do well.
  3. If the DMK also does well, then Andhra Pradesh will hold the key. Will TRS /TDP combine break up and TRS will join the Congress? Will Chiranjeevi upset the apple cart? Or is that the Congress will make these Andhra parties irrelevant.
  4. NCP, Mulayam, Lalu and Paswan will possibly go quietly with the Congress in this scenario.
  5. If Mamta does badly and so does DMK, then Congress will have easy time – as the Left and the Third Front may simply fall in line and negotiate a good deal for themselves.

Scenario 2

BJP wins 170-200 seats. Their allies win another 70-100  seats.

  1. The biggest worry for BJP will be the President. Who will the President give the first opportunity to – in case of a close result?
  2. BJP will have a tougher time – as the Congress will try for the same allies.
  3. BJP has an advantage with an inside track with TRS, BJD, ADMK. Unlike the Congress.
  4. Will Shiv Sena rope in Sharad Pawar to join an NDA Government? Possible!
  5. How much of a chance does BJP have with Mayawati? Considerable!
  6. In this specific scenario, the big thing for the BJP will be the number of seats that the allies win.

Emosianal atyachaar!

Emosianal atyachaar!

Scenario 3

Congress and BJP get less than 150 seats each. One gets 130 – and the other gets 150! The Third and the Fourth Front get around 250 seats by themselves.

  1. BJP has said that it may partner with Congress to form a ‘stable Government! A BJP leader has gone on record saying the same!
  2. NCP leader PA Sangma has independently suggested that since there is “not much difference between the economic and foreign policies of these two parties and that their coming together could make India a “different country”.”
  3. The other thing will be a Third Front Government – which is seeming improbable as the two main forces for a Third Front, the Left and Telugu Desam’s Chandra Babu Naidu both seem to be doing badly. “Better a junior partner in a stable alliance like the UPA or NDA than a unstable Third Front” kind of thinking may win the day – and kill the Third Front.
  4. The Third Front may gravitate around Mayawati – whosesarvjan’ ideology is very Indic – and unique. Unlike others, who are talking about reservations, only Mayawati talks about everyone’s welfare. Her bit abouttilak, taraazu aur talwar … teeno ko maar jootey chaar’ is again something that is a very Indic and  a welcome development.

    This stereotype hides an interesting fact

    This stereotype hides an interesting fact

Scenario 4

The most uncertain outcome.

Congress and BJP get between 140-165 seats each – leaving just about 220-260 seats for all others. None of the three Blocs are close to a majority. The Third and the Fourth Front get seats in the 2:1 ratio. BJP /Congress  are not in a position to form the Government and neither do others!

Two possibilities – a rump party will form a Government depending on support from Congress or the BJP – a la Chandrasekhar, Charan Singh, Deve Gowda, IK Gujral et al. Or the BJP or Congress will cobble up a weak alliance – a Government that will bleed to death by a thousand cuts.

Getmo’ …

  1. Nitish seeks special status for Bihar
  2. Naveen Patnaik to back Cong govt at Centre
  3. Mayawati stands by Third Front
  4. Left ready to back Nitish as PM
  5. Cong indicates willingness for Nitish’s package formula

    Post poll alliances

    Post poll 'alliances'

  6. Did Maya ride to secret LK meet in M-800?
  7. DMK or AIADMK? Cong plays it safe, waits for 16th
  8. BJP eyes Naveen Patnaik & Chandrababu Naidu
  9. Will Ms. Mayawati be PM, wonders India’s Dalit capital
  10. Less seats for Left won’t make it drive hard bargain: Cong
  11. Meeting with Rajnath was not political, says Amar Singh
  12. Mad Woman Theory of Politics in India
  13. No 2007 repeat, but Maya tally to rise
  14. AGP wants Advani as next Prime Minister
  15. Congress to emerge as single largest party: Rajasthan bookies
  16. Congress may dump DMK, may not need Maya
  17. The Kingmakers
  18. Third Front a fractured front: Praja Rajyam
  19. Marandi’s party to maintain equidistance from NDA, UPA

PS – This post continued getting interested readers well after the result came out! Was it possibly because that as one reviewer put it,

Nostradamus

To begin with albeit a little late, is poll scenario analysis by Quick Tale. I call the post Nostradamus like because from the 4scenarios laid out in the post, the very first assumption became the election result. Comprehensive thoughts at: Scenarios and Outcomes – Indian Elections 2009

Scenario 2
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